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August 4, 2019

2019-20 Premier League Title Odds: Manchester City Favorites to Threepeat (UPDATE)

High Press 10 August 4, 2019

UPDATED August 4th after FA Community Shield

2019-20 Premier League title odds have gone through some changes after the summer transfer season on FanDuel Sportsbook NJ and DraftKings Sportsbook.

One thing that hasn’t changed is that oddsmakers clearly view this as a two-team race. The Premier League trophy holder will be between FFP violating Manchester City and Champions League winners Liverpool.

Like with 2019-20 La Liga title odds, there’s a distant third (Tottenham in this case), then everybody else.

2019-20 Premier League Title Odds

There’s some different pricing on FanDuel Sportsbook NJ and DraftKings Sportsbook. For this post, we’ll stick with title odds. We’ll list Top 4, Top 6, and relegation odds later this week.

FanDuel Premier League Title Odds

Typically we offer “value play” advice but the reality is City or Liverpool will win the Premier League this year. If you’re not picking one of the two, you’re not following closely enough.

City has only become heavier favorites since May. They’ve moved from -170 to -230. Liverpool go slightly longer, from +240 to +260. Despite unprecedented spending, Tottenham fell from +1400 to +1900.

The gap from the top 3 and everyone else widens significantly from there. Manchester United soar from +2000 to +3800. Chelsea double from +2000 to +4000. Arsenal go longer from +2900 to +4900.

Even those 7-10 teams who all improved this summer got longer. Wolves go from +9000 to +17000. They’re joined at +17000 by Leceister City and Everton.

Manchester City -230Liverpool +260Spurs +1900Manchester United +3800 Chelsea +4000
Arsenal +4900Wolves +17000Leicester +17000Everton +17000Watford +25000
West Ham +25000Bournemouth +25000Newcastle +25000Sheffield +25000Norwich +25000
Burnley +25000Brighton +25000Crystal Palace +25000Southampton +25000Aston Villa +25000

DraftKings Premier League Title Odds

At DraftKings Sportsbook it’s a similar story. City and Liverpool slightly improve. Everyone else falls. United drop from +1000 to +3300 (a sign the public wasn’t backing them at all). Arsenal double in length here too, from +2500 to +5000. Everton actually improved from +25000 to +15000. Aston Villa’s summer spending got some respect too, as they move from +250000 to +100000.

City -200Liverpool +275Spurs +1800 Manchester United +3300Chelsea +3300
Arsenal +5000Wolves +15000 Everton +15000Leicester +25000 West Ham +50000
Watford +100000 Crystal Palace +100000 Southampton
+100000
Bournemouth +100000 Aston Villa +100000
Newcastle
+100000
Burnley +150000 Brighton
+150000
Sheffield +2000000

Norwich +200000

As always, read this betting on soccer or Premier League betting refresher for how this all works.

2019-20 La Liga Title Odds

Tyler Everett August 4, 2019

If it seems like La Liga has belonged to Lionel Messi and Barcelona for a while now, it’s because it has.

Last season the Catalans finished 11 points clear of second-place Atlético Madrid, marking the team’s eighth (!) league title in the last 11 years. 

That level of dominance would be remarkable in any league (even Ligue 1). It’s especially impressive considering Real Madrid was good enough to win four of five Champions League trophies (’14, ’16, ’17 and ’18) in that time. Atleti has also been among Europe’s top clubs nearly every season since ’14 — and made it to the UCL Final in ’14 and ’16. 

In (not at all) shocking news, it’s been a fascinating summer in Barcelona and the Spanish capital. Even if we ignore the never-ending drama surrounding Neymar’s possible return to Barcelona and Gareth Bale’s status at Real Madrid, all three of Spain’s top clubs have been busy this summer.

A quick look back

Note: Emphasis on “quick” here — this is a look at top players that moved to or from these clubs. All three had a number of other signings and departures. Also, if you haven’t already, check out any summer episodes of the High Press Pod, which is now available on iTunes, for our thoughts on the moves below.

Barcelona: Added Antoine Griezmann and Frenkie de Jong. No major losses, save maybe Malcom.

Real Madrid: Added Luka Jovic, Eden Hazard, Ferland Mendy, among others.

Atlético Madrid: Had the biggest offseason overhaul of any team in Europe. Added João Félix, Kieran Trippier, Marcos Llorente, Mario Hermoso and several others. Lost Griezmann, Rodri (Manchester City), Lucas Hernández (Bayern Munich), Diego Godín (Inter Milan), Filipe Luis (Flamengo) and Juanfran (unsigned).

2019-20 La Liga Title Odds

The following are 2019-20 La Liga Title Odds. What stands out is how similar the La Liga odds are like the 2019-20 Premier League title odds. You have two clear favorites and a distant third (although Atlético isn’t as long as Tottenham).

We will continue to update this page as odds change throughout the year.

2019-20 La Liga League Odds (August 3rd, 2019)

TeamWinnerTop 4
Barcelona-200
Real Madrid+175-10,000
Atlético Madrid+1,100-835
Valencia+10,000+150
Sevilla+15,000+250
Athletic Bilbao+50,000+650
Getafe+50,000+1,600
Real Betis+50,000 +1,400
Real Sociedad +50,000 +1,600
Villarreal+50,000+800
Celta Vigo+75,000+2,000
Espanyol+75,000+2,000
Eibar+100,000+3,300
Leganés +150,000+10,000
Levante+200,000+10,000
Alavés+250,000+12,500
Valladolid+250,000+15,000
Granada+300,000+15,000
Osasuna+300,000+15,000
Mallorca +300,000+15,000

Where to Bet on La Liga in the US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook.

Can anyone top Barcelona and win La Liga?

At this point, Barcelona is a known commodity. With Griezmann and de Jong added to the mix, Barcelona is not only the clear favorite to win the league (-200), but also the second-heaviest ’19-20 Champions League favorite at +600, behind only Man City at +450.

Atlético absolutely has a shot to upend Messi and Co. What we’ve seen from Los Rojiblancos this summer is admittedly a small sample size — and we should also mention, again, that these games do not matter — but still, they’ve been extremely impressive.

If it were ever possible to say such a thing after a couple of exhibition matches, Félix appears poised to live up to the hype and the price tag. He has already scored twice and tallied three assists in just over 100 minutes of action. More importantly, for this piece at least, Félix’s decision appears to have been a wise one, as he’s joined a team that looks as potent offensively as it has in a long time. It’s been astonishing to see how cohesive this team already looks considering all the new faces.

Diego Simeone’s squad finished second in La Liga each of the past two years with a very average offense (58 goals in 38 games in ’17-18, which dropped to 55 last season). If the defense remains anywhere near as stout as it’s been for what seems like forever at this point — and that is a big if considering the amount of roster turnover — their odds to win the league (+1,100) make them an excellent bet.

No respect

Speaking of odds to win the league, Real Madrid is currently a much bigger favorite, at +175, than their crosstown rival, which seems ridiculous. Yes, RM added some serious firepower this offseason. But does it make it any sense to expect a team whose ’18-19 finish (68 points) had it closer to fourth-place Valencia (61) than second-place Atleti (76) to close the gap on Barcelona?

And have the oddsmakers paid any attention to the on-field and off-field disaster that is Zinedine Zidane’s squad at the moment??? Friendly or not, Atleti appeared to be a much better team in the 7-3 blowout on July 26.

How in the world is a team on the wrong end of such a massive beatdown seen as a better bet than the club that delivered that beating? And despite the success in Europe in ’18, now is a good time to point out that Atleti — not Los Blancos — has finished second behind Barcelona the last two years.

2019 FA Community Shield: Liverpool Player Ratings

High Press 10 August 4, 2019

The 2019 FA Community Shield is the first of 7 trophies Liverpool is competing for this year. Of the 7, Jurgen Klopp probably prioritizes it as the 7th most important for the club.

Having said that, Klopp trotted out his near A+ line-up for the match against FFP violating Manchester City. Despite the fact that City lives to win meaningless trophies (inferiority complex), Liverpool’s starting XI for the match is the stronger.

This is definitely a pro-Liverpool crowd. The Getty Images database from outside of Wembley are almost all red shirts. And there’s a good full-throated You’ll Never Walk Alone pre-match.

First Half. At the half, City was ahead 1-0 off a Raheem Sterling goal that Alisson really should’ve stopped. Even game though. City led possession 58-42% and goals 5/2 to 4/1. However much like preseason, Liverpool’s backline isn’t as organized or sharp as last year.

Second Half. Liverpool dominated the second half, although were only able to level it 1-1 on a Joel Matip header. They turned the possession advantage (on City!!!) to 53-47% at the end of the game. Turned the advantage on shots on goal to 17/9 to City’s 8/3.

Penalty Shootout. The game went to a penalty shootout. City made all of theirs. Liverpool missed one (Gini). They lose the Community Shield in a shootout despite being the better team. Goal line clearances. Near misses. Losing despite being the better team. Domestically, 2019-20 starts just as 2018-19 ended.

Regardless, an encouraging performance and signal for the rest of the year.

Liverpool Player Ratings

Manager

Jurgen Klopp (8) – There are pluses and minuses to rolling out your best available line-up (assuming Sadio Mane isn’t fit yet). Would a win over City give the squad a psychological boost for the long grind of a season ahead?

Klopp at least came dressed to play, unlike Pep Guardiola. Pep showed up dressed like he was off to help paint a buddy’s guest room.

Klopp, like last year, had his team stronger in the second half. Disappointing end result as his squad was the better for the day.

Goalkeeper

Alisson (4.5) – Should’ve saved the opener on Sterling. Did well to keep a second goal from happening in the 17th minute. Played a potentially dangerous ball out in the 25th minute. Did well to deny Sterling on a 1v1 in the second half.

Should’ve saved the Zinchenko shot in the shootout. Didn’t guess right once. Can’t believe I’m typing this, but Mignolet would’ve done better today.

Defenders

Trent Alexander-Arnold (4) – Very much “off” on set piece services. Out of position defensively too often. Subbed off in the 67th for Joel Matip.

Virgil van Dijk (6) – Just missed a goal (it looked like a goal, but the ball didn’t cross the line) off the top bar in the 57th. A few minutes later, let Sterling in behind him but recovered well to help deny a would-be goal.

Made a wonderfully composed pass to Joel Matip to level the game in the 77th. Loses a point for getting dribbled past.

Joe Gomez (7.5) – Great, clean challenge on David Silva in the 40th, predictably causing Silva to go down writhing like he got shot in the foot. Looked much better after shifting to right-back after TAA subbed out. Solid defensively and on the attack.

Andy Robertson (5) – After a middling preseason, looked back to normal early on. Wonderful through ball to Origi in the 4th minute. However, failed to pick up runners behind him multiple times early. Best thing he did all game was giving Pep some lip in the 90th.

Midfielders

Jordan Henderson (4) – Unnoticeable in first half. More on the attack in the second half. However, in 74th minute Hendo had an opportunity to rip it, didn’t, then delivered a poor pass to Salah that was intercepted. Then delivered another clunker in the 75th. Subbed off for Lallana in the 79th.

Fabinho (5) – Unnoticeable in first half. Non-factor in second. Subbed off in 67th for Naby Keita.

Georginio Wijnaldum (5) – Aaaaand copy+paste first half comment here. Better in second half. Missed his pk. Knew the second he ran up it wasn’t going in. Didn’t look confident.

Forwards

Roberto Firmino (6) – Wonderful control in the 8th minute, bringing a difficult ball down and finding Salah for the first big opportunity of the game. Then was mostly solid although somewhat quiet. Subbed off for Xherdan Shaqiri in the 79th.

Divock Origi (5) – Quiet first half. Had a 1vs1 he could’ve done better with in the 33rd. Worked his ass off in the 43rd to earn a free kick. Subbed off for Ox in the 79th.

Mohamed Salah (8) – Started in preseason form. Had a great opportunity in the 8th minute but just missed it wide. Missed two more opportunities, one in the 29th that mid-season Salah would’ve finished.

Salah improved as the game went on, but still missed shot after shot. Seriously, he couldn’t finish a sentence. Good work rate though, dispossessing Raheem Sterling after being dispossessed. Gengengpressing af.

Moved up top in the #9 role after the 79th. Missed another close one in the 86th. Really deserved a goal. Was going for it all game. Played a full 90 and looks fully fit. Denied by Kyle Walker in the closing minute on a play that had whiffs of John Stones’ clearance of Mane from last year.

Seriously.

Did convert his pk.

Substitutions

Joel Matip (8) – Came on the 67th and immediately challenged by Jesus, doing well to win a foul. Calmly headed in the tying goal in 77th. Made his claim to be VVD’s starting partner.

Naby Keita (6) – Came on in the 67th for Fabinho to help create an offensive spark. Didn’t. Was in 2018 form. Couldn’t complete a pass to save his life. Rocketed a great one-time shot in the 83rd.

Xherdan Shaqiri (7) – Was aggressive on the attack. Buried his pk in the shootout.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Inc) – Not much of an impact. Drilled his pk.

Adam Lallana (6.5) – Fed a great ball to Keita that almost led to a goal. His hair makes him look like the Night King. Nailed his pk.

MAN OF THE MATCH

Had Matip played more, it would’ve gone to him. However, encouraging game from Mo Salah. He gets it.

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