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August 13, 2019

How the Revolution Have Improved Under Bruce Arena, and a New York Red Bulls Preview

August 13, 2019

The New England Revolution can be presented as a case study on the effect of coaching in soccer.

Incredibly, they have lost just once since Brad Friedel was fired in early May. They experienced a slight new coach bump, as many teams do, but once Bruce Arena took over full-time in June, they flipped a switch and became legitimately competent. 

Friedel was a demanding manager, and Arena appears to have provided a refreshing break from his predecessor’s intensity. Players look more confident as Arena has played them in the correct positions and in a compact, flexible system. The acquisition of Gustavo Bou, in theory symbolizing a new Revs outlook, helps an attack that looks much more threatening.

Arena’s tactical improvements

Tactically, Arena has simplified things, but also crafted enough of a tactical understanding to allow the Revs to alternate between formations and playing styles without sacrificing familiarity.

New England have used both four-at-the-back and five-at-the-back looks, playing high lines and deep lines, sometimes possessing the ball and other times playing more defensive. Other teams that have tried that sort of approach in MLSVeljko Paunovic’s Chicago, notably, as well as prior versions of Dome Torrent’s NYCFC — and failed, tinkering too much and never establishing an identity. Arena is a good enough coach that he does not fall victim to the flaws of Paunovic and Torrent.

The personnel haven’t improved dramatically. Players are just better. Carles Gil has lived up to his DP status. The defense — while there are legitimate concerns — has stayed afloat. A notably less error-prone Wilfried Zahibo has paired well with Luis Caicedo in a double-pivot midfield. Second-year SuperDraft pick Brandon Bye has proven to be a legitimate contributor on the flank, both in his primary job as a right back and as a wingback.

Arena knew these Revs needed a shake-up, and he’s provided it. Juan Agudelo and Diego Fagundez, who have long been under-utilized as cogs in a broken Revs system, have played all over the field. Striker Teal Bunbury, known for his streakiness, scored five goals in six games in the middle of New England’s 11-game unbeaten streak. 

All of a sudden, the Revs are sixth in the Eastern Conference and will likely make the playoffs, despite winning just two of their first 12 games. That is a pretty astounding turnaround. Competent coaching goes a long way.

To finish, let’s take a look at some interesting aspects of their upcoming match against the New York Red Bulls.

Revolution vs. Red Bulls Preview

We know what to expect from the Red Bulls by this point. They’ll press out of a 4-2-3-1 and play a high line, trying to coerce turnovers out of their opponents. It will be interesting to see how the Revs respond, and how conservative Arena is willing to get with his game-plan.

In Seattle last weekend, New England put out a three-at-the-back and played a relatively high line. It was an effort to put an extra defender on the field, knowing that the Revs had traveled cross-country to face an elite attacking opponent. At times they appeared stretched in midfield, but they never looked too disorganized, and they succeeded in generating chances on goal.

The Sounders match turned into a wild goal-fest, finishing 3-3 with a few video reviews and end-to-end action. Arena called it a s—show. It actually was a fairly quality game, though many of the pivotal occurrences ended up being products of luck — Arena called it a “game of accidents.” In spite of the craziness of the game, it is a testament to the Revs’ improvement that they were able to hang with Seattle on the road.

Their next task is hanging with the Red Bulls on the road. They will be up for it. NYRB lack the level of attacking firepower to overpower teams, and no longer are able to dominate the middle of the field the way they have been in the past. Bradley Wright-Phillips is a super-sub. Kaku openly wants out. They just sent dynamic young winger Derrick Etienne on loan to Cincinnati. They will continue to need a difference-making winger.

New England can create chances. Arena could set them up in a deeper block with the intent to attack on the counter, to mitigate the effect of the Red Bulls’ pressing. Cristian Penilla, a speedy winger who came off the bench in Seattle, could return to the starting lineup as an option on the counter. We’ve seen the Revs find success in this style (and others), so it’s reasonable to think they can put fear into NYRB on the road.

Premier League Matchday 2 Odds

High Press 10 August 13, 2019

Soooo…who all had Brighton & Hove Albion in a UCL spot after matchday 1 of the Premier League?

Or Chelsea in relegation? If our math skills are correct, Chelsea is on pace for 0 points and a -152 goal differential.

Things will start normalizing this week. Here are the lines.

2019-20 Premier League Matchday 2 Odds

Some really interesting games this week. As always, if you need a refresher, please read how to bet the Premier League in the US. If you live in New Jersey or Pennsylvania, you can bet soccer online. Home team listed first.

Saturday, August 17th  
Arsenal -360Draw +450Burnley +1050
Aston Villa +135Draw +240Bournemouth +200
Brighton +155Draw +220West Ham +200
Everton -139Draw +290Watford +375
Norwich +120Draw +240Newcastle +230
Southampton +675Draw +375Liverpool -245
Manchester City -286Draw +450Tottenham +700
Sunday, August 18th
Sheffield +150Draw +220Crystal Palace +200
Chelsea -134Draw +260Leicester City +400
Monday, August 19th
Wolves +245Draw +240Manchester United +115

Odds & Ends

  • Matchday 2 certainly isn’t a make or break for West Ham. They’re not getting relegated. But any hope of a top 6 run takes a major hit if they go two weeks with zero points. Can Brighton really earn 6 points after two weeks?
  • Newcastle wasn’t that bad matchday 1. Should their odds be that long on the road against Norwich? Actually scratch that. Yeah they should. But still.
  • The marquee match-up for the week is obviously Manchester City vs Tottenham. Spurs are +700. Seems about right. But this will be an indicator as to how good Spurs actually are this season.
  • Chelsea. Ouch. Now Leicester comes for a visit. Things could go off the rails quickly for Frank Lampard if the Foxes steal 3 points.
  • Manchester United +115 on the road against Wolves? Feels like an overreaction to matchday 1. Wolves at +245 feels like a bargain.
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