UPDATE: This post has been updated to reflect injury and line-up news.
It’s Boxing Day. One of the best days for Premier League fans. All 20 EPL sides play.
DraftKings is running a number of DFS contests. The main contests involved the 10am ET matches only. There are separate “Showdown” contests (similar to what is held for Monday Night Football) for Leicester vs Liverpool (and Newcastle vs Man U).
Here are our best picks for the 10am ET contests. As always, December is a time for heavy rotation. Even though it’s Boxing Day and most squads are rolling out their “A” line-up, double-check the team sheet an hour before kick off.
Also, Boxing Day features the two teams playing each other that conceded the most shots: Aston Villa and Norwich. If you’re looking for value plays, look no further than that match.
DraftKings DFS Picks for December 26th
Tammy Abraham ($9,000) –Gut call here. Has cooled off after a scorching hot start. He hasn’t scored or registered an assist domestically in his last three matches as Willian has stepped up. However, he’s taking the same number of shots per game as when he was actually scoring. Southampton is tied with Norwich for most goals conceded this season. Tammy should find the score sheet. Oddsmakers agree, as he’s listed at +290 to score the first goal of the match (the next regular starter is +570).
Teemu Puki ($7,100) – Aston Villa aren’t far behind Southampton for most conceded (33 GA). Their underlying numbers suggest they’ve been lucky not to conceded more (35.5 xGA). Pukki was unlucky not to score last match against Wolves, firing off 4 shots on target. Good value at $7,100 to find the back of the net.
Danny Ings ($6,700) – Another gut here says that does not score in this one. DraftKings has dropped his price from $7,300 to $6,700 after recording 30.1 points against Aston Villa last match. Red flag! So why is he listed? Chelsea have only kept four clean sheets domestically this year. Ingsy is tied for second in the EPL for most goals so far this season with 11. If Chelsea concede then Ings is the most likely candidate to benefit. At $6,700, that’s a fair price for a forward having a career year.
Alexandre Lacazette ($8,400) – Earning a start for new manager Arteta, expect an inspired performance.
Jack Grealish ($9,500) – The price is high on Grealish, yes. It’s the highest he’s been priced all season. However, he’s going to be solely carrying the offensive load for Aston Villa this match. He’s in great form. Grealish has only scored less than 14.9 FPP twice in the last 10 matches. If you can afford him, slot him in.
Wilfried Zaha ($7,900) – A less expensive option to Grealish with a decent match-up against West Ham. Zaha’s biggest problems is he’s not taking a lot of shots. In his past 10 matches, Zaha has only generated 15 shots. And 5 were against Liverpool in one match (odd anomaly). West Ham are middle of the pack for conceding shots (9th) but when opponents do take them, they’re going in at a high rate. West Ham are conceding more shots away, and Zaha would be the main beneficiary for Palace. Zaha is not a play we love, but it’s a match-up worth considering for the price.
Emiliano Buendia ($7,400) – Villa concede a lot of crosses and Buendia takes a lot. Good chance one of those leads to a Teemu Pukki goal in this match.
Ryan Fraser ($7,300) – Will see plenty of ball against an Arsenal side that is particularly susceptible to given goals away on the road. Bournemouth are beset with injuries, so Fraser will be relied upon heavily.
Emerson ($5,700) – Emerson runs hot and cold in stretches. Right now he’s in form, earning 16.8 and 9.9 FPP in his last two matches.
Edna Stevens ($5,200) – His prices keeps going up but we’re going to keep rolling with him. He’s got a high floor (only less than 7 FFPs once in his last 10) and a good match-up.
The biggest no-brainer this week is Dean Henderson ($5,400). Good match-up vs Watford at home. If you need to save money, Tim Krul ($4,200) is going to face a lot of shots in a game that Norwich has a fair chance of winning.
Low Cost Lottery Tickets
These are players priced under $5,000 who could help fill out a roster.
- Matteo Guendouzi ($4,200) – Definitely a “make sure he’s starting” play. But if he is, Guendouzi seems like the player who could most benefit from Arteta’s appointment as manager. Arteta stated he’s looking for players with ‘commitment, accountability, aggression, and passion’ which all sounds like the Frenchman.
- Terry Mina ($3,200) – Gut call. If you desperately need to plug in a cheap option, Mina at least has the upside of (possibly) generating shots and interceptions.
- Declan Rice ($3,200) – Rice’s ceiling is around 9 points. He’ll have a busy day against Palace though and should provide something in the 6-8 point range at a price that allows you to purchase another high-end attacking option.
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