Best Title Bets in Each European Domestic League

High Press 10 August 16, 2019 232 Reads
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The 2019-20 Premier League season is already a week in. So is Ligue 1. La Liga starts today as does the Bundesliga. Serie A follows next week. Each domestic league has a dominant team and clear title favorite. However, just because a team is a clear favorite doesn’t mean they’re the best bet. This post will examine the best value bets for Europe’s top divisions.

First though, give a quick look to the following:

Each league has a dominant team and a distant second

Betting markets and probabilities show each domestic league has a very clear favorite. There are some surprising data points though.

For as dominant as Juventus has been, Serie A actually provides three double-digit options for hoisting their domestic trophy. Not even the Premier League (which offers the most overall depth) or La Liga (which is almost as deep and has an outstanding top tier) can say that.

Have a look:

While on a game-by-game basis FiveThirtyEight’s probabilities aren’t always reliable, bigger picture / longer view they’re usually a good indicator. Only Liverpool has something approaching a 1/3 chance of capturing their domestic title. Given the historical strength of Real Madrid, that’s surprising. So is the top tier depth in Serie A. More on that in the next section.

European soccer best value title bets

With all of that exposition out of the way, here are each domestic league’s best title bets.

  • Premier League: This is a two-team race again between Manchester City (-230) and Liverpool (+300). Tottenham is a distant third at +2000. Given the injuries Liverpool is already facing and their overwhelmingly heavy schedule (7!!! total trophy competitions), it’s already feeling like too big a mountain to climb for the Reds this season. Even at -230, City is the best value. If City beat Spurs this weekend, that -230 goes to -300 or more.
  • Bundesliga: FiveThirtyEight and betting markets have seemed to overrate Bayern Munich (-335) the past year. Today’s No Grass in the Clouds makes a compelling case that despite only winning the Bundesliga by 2 points last season, Bayern is still likely too far ahead of Borussia Dortmund to slip. Borussia Dortmund though will likely have the best player in the Bundesliga this season (Jadon Sancho) and have strengthened their squad. Gut call, but BVB’s +400 is the best value as they have a real shot to contend and breakthrough.
  • La Liga: Barcelona (-225) had a great summer. Adding Antoine Griezmann and Frenkie de Jong provide top end talent that’s hard to match in the world. However, the remaining squad is aging, including Lionel Messi. How many more elite years do he have before he actually declines? This is a “Champions League or Bust” season for the Catalans. That doesn’t mean they won’t waltz through La Liga. But there may be an opening. Real Madrid (+200) seems like a model of dysfunction right now. Count them out. However, Atlético Madrid seem to have something going right now. Another gut call, but +1400 is great value for a club that has looked cohesive and strong all preseason.
  • Serie A: Juventus has won 8 straight Serie A titles. Getting -225 for what feels like a lock is usually good value. If you want to hedge your bet though, FiveThirtyEight gives Napoli the second best probability (17%) but betting markets have them priced third overall at +600. Barring a slew of injuries, Juventus will win and their price is fair. But Napoli has value too.
  • Ligue 1: Whatever. PSG is the biggest favorite of them all at -1250. Can’t make a compelling case for any other squad. If you have the resources to tie up your funds for 9-10 months and spend $1,250 to win $100, more power to you. Otherwise, pass.

How to Bet Soccer in US

As always, if you need a refresher, please read how to bet soccer in the US. If you live in New Jersey or Pennsylvania, you can legally bet soccer online. The above odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook NJ. FanDuel Sportsbook is also a great option.

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