Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: Der Klassiker

Posted By Alex Blowers on November 6, 2020

LINE: Borussia Dortmund +300 | Draw +320 | Bayern Munich -133
KICK OFF: Saturday, November 7th, 12:30PM EST
WHERE: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
WATCH: ESPN+

It’s our second Der Klassiker of the season with Borussia Dortmund facing Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. These two are joint top & separated only by goal difference so there’ s everything to play for here.

Both sides are facing selection issues with key defenders unavailable & it will be intriguing to see which manager handles it best.

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BORUSSIA DORTMUND

Dortmund have only conceded in three games this season & lost all of them. They’ve won their other eight fixtures with a clean sheet. That’s a seriously impressive stat & an integral part of their defensive strength is Mats Hummels. The 2014 World Cup winner ruled himself out of Wednesday’s trip to Club Brugge & is hopeful he will be available for Der Klassiker, after exiting Saturday’s win over Arminia Bielefeld with a minor hamstring problem.

If Hummels isn’t available, Lucian Favre is faced with a CB selection nightmare. Emre Can will still be in isolation after he tested positive for COVID-19 & Dan-Axel Zagadou is another CB out with a knee injury. Manual Akanji is the only fit CB available & he was paired with Alex Witsel in their midweek Champions League fixture.

In the DFL Super Cup Gio Reyna & Jude Bellingham started on the bench. I would play Reyna from the start here because he has been BVB’s best attacking player this season with 2 goals & 4 assists. On the LW the 17 year old can afford to make mistakes & Bayern are less likely to turn them into a goal. There are calls for Bellingham to start but I would bench the young Englishman. CM is a less forgiving position & Bayern are more likely to turn his mistakes into goals. With Joshua Kimmich & Javi Martínez likely to start I would pick Thomas Delaney in the middle of the park to add steel & experience. 

BAYERN MUNICH

Bayern also have players unavailable as this grueling run of 7 games in 21 days takes its toll on their squad. Alphonso Davies & Niklas Süle are out & there are reports Leon Goretzka won’t make it either. Hansi Flick’s squad is deep but these three would all be in his first choice eleven & their energy & pace will be sorely missed.

Leroy Sané has returned from injury & Hansi Flick has to start him ahead of Kingsley Coman. For me, Sané is the more dangerous & direct player. I would instruct him to take on Thomas Meunier at every opportunity. The Belgian has been a liability this season & Bayern should focus their play down the left to expose his defensive shortcomings.

They hit a little bump in the road, Tuesday night in the Champions League going 1-0 down away to Red Bull Salzburg after 4 minutes. It was an end to end game & the Swiss side proved to be more difficult than expected. With the score tied at 2-2 Hansi Flick introduced Leroy Sané, Javi Martínez & Bouna Sarr in the 75th minute & Bayern surged to run out 6-2 winners.

WHO COMES OUT ON TOP?

Bayern have an amazing squad but they are really going to miss Süle at the back. The German international is 6’5″, stacked & one of their fastest players. It never fails to impress me how a man of his size can move that fast. He was unavailable against Hoffenheim when Die Roten got pumped 4-1 & he was also absent against Red Bull Salzburg midweek. Goretzka & his energy & partnership with Joshua Kimmich will be another big miss. Davies pace will also be absent & Erling Haaland will cause David Alaba & Jérôme Boateng problems all evening.

With all signs pointing to Hummels starting on Saturday I’m going against the grain & backing Dortmund here. Lucian Favre’s switch to a 4-2-3-1 has worked really well for BVB in recent games & they’re looking solid at the back. In the German DFL Super Cup Final earlier this season they failed to take the chances they created & I have a feeling they will convert those opportunities this time round.

Prediction: 1 Unit – Borussia Dortmund Money Line +300

SEASON BETTING RESULTS

Betting Tracker

TOTAL WINS: 15
TOTAL LOSSES: 7
UNITS: +11.826
WIN %: 68.18%
ROI: +29.57%

WHERE TO BET THE BUNDESLIGA IN THE US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey, Indiana and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Betting advice for the Premier League & Bundesliga! Twitter - @RegistaPicks

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