LINE: Borussia Dortmund +300 | Draw +320 | Bayern Munich -133
KICK OFF: Saturday, November 7th, 12:30PM EST
WHERE: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
It’s our second Der Klassiker of the season with Borussia Dortmund facing Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. These two are joint top & separated only by goal difference so there’ s everything to play for here.
Both sides are facing selection issues with key defenders unavailable & it will be intriguing to see which manager handles it best.
Dortmund have only conceded in three games this season & lost all of them. They’ve won their other eight fixtures with a clean sheet. That’s a seriously impressive stat & an integral part of their defensive strength is Mats Hummels. The 2014 World Cup winner ruled himself out of Wednesday’s trip to Club Brugge & is hopeful he will be available for Der Klassiker, after exiting Saturday’s win over Arminia Bielefeld with a minor hamstring problem.
If Hummels isn’t available, Lucian Favre is faced with a CB selection nightmare. Emre Can will still be in isolation after he tested positive for COVID-19 & Dan-Axel Zagadou is another CB out with a knee injury. Manual Akanji is the only fit CB available & he was paired with Alex Witsel in their midweek Champions League fixture.
In the DFL Super Cup Gio Reyna & Jude Bellingham started on the bench. I would play Reyna from the start here because he has been BVB’s best attacking player this season with 2 goals & 4 assists. On the LW the 17 year old can afford to make mistakes & Bayern are less likely to turn them into a goal. There are calls for Bellingham to start but I would bench the young Englishman. CM is a less forgiving position & Bayern are more likely to turn his mistakes into goals. With Joshua Kimmich & Javi Martínez likely to start I would pick Thomas Delaney in the middle of the park to add steel & experience.
Bayern also have players unavailable as this grueling run of 7 games in 21 days takes its toll on their squad. Alphonso Davies & Niklas Süle are out & there are reports Leon Goretzka won’t make it either. Hansi Flick’s squad is deep but these three would all be in his first choice eleven & their energy & pace will be sorely missed.
Leroy Sané has returned from injury & Hansi Flick has to start him ahead of Kingsley Coman. For me, Sané is the more dangerous & direct player. I would instruct him to take on Thomas Meunier at every opportunity. The Belgian has been a liability this season & Bayern should focus their play down the left to expose his defensive shortcomings.
They hit a little bump in the road, Tuesday night in the Champions League going 1-0 down away to Red Bull Salzburg after 4 minutes. It was an end to end game & the Swiss side proved to be more difficult than expected. With the score tied at 2-2 Hansi Flick introduced Leroy Sané, Javi Martínez & Bouna Sarr in the 75th minute & Bayern surged to run out 6-2 winners.
WHO COMES OUT ON TOP?
Bayern have an amazing squad but they are really going to miss Süle at the back. The German international is 6’5″, stacked & one of their fastest players. It never fails to impress me how a man of his size can move that fast. He was unavailable against Hoffenheim when Die Roten got pumped 4-1 & he was also absent against Red Bull Salzburg midweek. Goretzka & his energy & partnership with Joshua Kimmich will be another big miss. Davies pace will also be absent & Erling Haaland will cause David Alaba & Jérôme Boateng problems all evening.
Look at Alphonso Davies’ wheels…💨— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) May 26, 2020
What a play to deny Haaland a chance for Dortmund!pic.twitter.com/TiSFTENzWI
With all signs pointing to Hummels starting on Saturday I’m going against the grain & backing Dortmund here. Lucian Favre’s switch to a 4-2-3-1 has worked really well for BVB in recent games & they’re looking solid at the back. In the German DFL Super Cup Final earlier this season they failed to take the chances they created & I have a feeling they will convert those opportunities this time round.
Prediction: 1 Unit – Borussia Dortmund Money Line +300
SEASON BETTING RESULTS
TOTAL WINS: 15
TOTAL LOSSES: 7
WIN %: 68.18%
WHERE TO BET THE BUNDESLIGA IN THE US
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