Bundesliga Betting 21/22: Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Betting Preview

Written By Alex Blowers on October 13, 2021

This Sunday, Bayer Leverkusen host Bayern Munich at the BayArena for a top-of-the-table clash. These two sides occupy first and second in the Bundesliga, with both sitting on 16 points. Their records are almost identical, with five wins, one draw, one defeat, and seven goals conceded in their opening seven games. The only thing separating them is goals scored, with Bayern four ahead on 24.

These two met last season in similar circumstances, and it was one of my favorite games of the season. Leverkusen were unbeaten in their opening 12 games, and a point was all they needed to go into the winter break at the top of the table. Thirty seconds before the final whistle, a mistake at the back fell kindly for Robert Lewandowski, who scored via a deflection to get Bayern the 3 points and send them into first.

The game will be shown live on ESPN+, with kick-off scheduled for 9:30AM EST, and hopefully, it will be as eventful as last season’s. Read on for my match preview, bringing you all the latest team news, recent form, and stats to hopefully help you make better Bundesliga betting choices.


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Bundesliga Betting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Betting Preview


CompetitionOpponentHome/AwayShots ForShots AgainstGoals ForGoals AgainstPossessionxG ForxG AgainstxG Difference
BundesligaFC AugsburgAway14144158%2.121.69+0.43
BundesligaBorussia DortmundHome11143442%0.472.29-1.82
BundesligaVfB StuttgartAway7173136%1.591.42+0.17
BundesligaMainz 05Home17141068%1.450.93+0.52
BundesligaArminia BielefeldAway18104066%2.970.45+2.52
Total / Average67 / 13.469 / 13.815 / 36 / 1.254%8.6 / 1.726.78 / 1.35+1.82 / +0.36

Stats taken from UnderStat

Bundesliga Betting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Betting Preview

Out: Timothy Fosu-Mensah (Cruciate Ligament Tear), Edmond Tapsoda (Syndesmosis Tear), Exequiel Palacios (Ligament Damage), Julian Baumgartlinger (Knee)
Doubtful: None
Suspended: Robert Andrich
Coach: Gerardo Seoane

Leverkusen are flying at the moment, winning seven of their last eight games in all competitions. Gerardo Seoane has picked a fairly consistent eleven throughout that run, and I think he will stick with them.

In central defense, summer signing Odilon Kossounou has formed an excellent partnership with Johnathan Tah, conceding six goals and keeping four clean sheets in the last eight games. Kerem Demirbay and Charles Aránguiz will sit in front of them and be tasked with keeping tabs on Thomas Müller and runners from midfield.

Leverkusen will look to wonderkid Florian Wirtz to unlock Bayern’s defense. This season, the 18-year-old has been their best attacker, contributing five goals and four assists in 6 appearances. Patrick Schick will lead the line has carried his fine Euro 2020 form into the new season scoring six goals.

This game will be the final one of Robert Andrich‘s three-game suspension. The central midfielder was sent off on his debut in the 3-1 win over VfB Stuttgart for a foul on Tanguy Coulibaly.


CompetitionOpponentHome/AwayShots ForShots AgainstGoals ForGoals AgainstPossessionxG ForxG AgainstxG Difference
BundesligaHertha BerlinHome1675063%4.260.58+3.36
BundesligaRB LeipzigAway18104147%4.300.35+3.95
BundesligaVfL BochumHome2457069%6.881.23+5.65
BundesligaFC CologneHome18103257%3.080.96+2.12
BundesligaEintracht FrankfurtHome2051273%2.180.39+1.79
Total / Average96 / 19.237 / 7.420 / 45 / 161.8%20.70 / 4.143.51 / 0.70+16.87 / +3.37

Stats taken from UnderStat

Bundesliga Betting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Betting Preview


Out: Sven Ulreich (Knee)
Doubtful: Kingsley Coman (Heart Operation), Corentin Tolisso (Calf)
Suspended: Benjamin Pavard
Coach: Julian Nagelsmann

I can’t see Julian Nagelsmann making any changes to the side that started against Eintracht Frankfurt in Matchday 07. He suffered his first defeat as Bayern Manager, but it was more to do with goalkeeper Kevin Trapp‘s heroics than his team’s performance.

Bayern ended the game with 73% possession, 20 shots on goals with ten on target, and an xG of 2.18 to Frankfurt’s 0.39 paints in a one-sided match where Trapp made nine saves.

Corentin Tolisso returned to training this week after overcoming his calf injury. There’s a good chance we could see him on the bench for this game with Bayern lacking depth in central midfield.

The only other viable backup to first-choice Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka is Marcel Sabitzer. After Nagelsmann said, Michaël Cuisance and Marc Roca were good, just not good enough to break into the lineup just yet.

This will be the second and final game of Benjamin Pavard‘s suspension after being sent off in Matchday 06 for a sliding challenge from behind on Greuther’s Fürth’s Jeremy Dudziak.


I will always back Bayern Munich in these types of games. Not only are they the better side, but they have a stronger mentality, are more experienced, and have proved countless times they can turn up for the big occasion.

Looking at Leverkusen’s last five Bundesliga games, they have scored 15 goals but only managed an xG of 8.6. That’s an overperformance of 7.4 goals which means they haven’t been creating quality opportunities but have been clinical and converting very difficult chances.

In their last five, Bayern has scored 20 goals from an xG of 20.4 which means they’ve been dominating games, creating lots of chances and scoring them. Leverkusen’s backline have been brilliant this season, but they have an average age of 21.5 years old. I have doubts they can contain a player of Robert Lewandowski‘s caliber.

My recommendation is to back Bayern to take an early lead and see this game through comfortably.

BUNDESLIGA BETTING TIP: Halftime / Fulltime Bayern Munich / Bayern Munich +130


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Betting advice for the Premier League, Bundesliga & Serie A! Twitter - @AlexJBlowers

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