Bundesliga Betting Guide for the Rest of the Season

Posted By Alex Blowers on May 13, 2020

Pre COVID-19, the Bundesliga was arguably the most exciting league around this season. The league averaged 3.25 goals a game. Five different teams reached the summit: Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, Wolfsburg, Borussia Mochengladbach & Bayern Munich.

Post COVID-19, the Bundesliga is the first major sports league in the world to return to action. The league title, European Qualification and Relegation are all up for grabs. The hope is to complete all remaining fixtures over the next 8 weeks, ending with the DFB Pokal final on July 4th.

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Bundesliga Title Odds

Bayern Munich -455 | Borussia Dortmund +550 | RB Leipzig +800

Bayern sit top with a 4 point cushion. They’re 8 points ahead of 5th.

It hasn’t been the easiest of seasons for Die Roten, faltering under Niko Kovac, who was relieved early November after an embarrassing 5-1 loss at Eintracht Frankfurt. Hans Flick stepped up from assistant manager to interim coach & impressed earning a deal to the end of the season back in December. He’s continued to impress with 18 wins, 1 draw & 2 losses across all competitions & recently signed a deal till June 2023.

Bayern’s biggest challengers are Borussia Dortmund & RB Leipzig, managed by Lucien Favre and Julian Nagelsmann respectively.

Dortmund led last year at the winter break & looked set to end Bayern’s six-year winning streak. However, a poor second half to the season littered with defensive mistakes saw them finish runners up. Strengthened by Julian Brandt, Thorgan Hazard, Mats Hummels, Nico Schulz, Emre Can & Erling Haaland. this is BVB’s best squad since the days of Jurgen Klopp. With Achraf Hakimi’s loan deal ending in the summer & Jadon Sancho expected to depart for England, it’s their best chance as well.

Leipzig went into the winter break top but find themselves 3rd having dropped 11 points since play resumed. Before the league suspended, Leipzig started to find their rhythm again with convincing wins against Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League and a 5-0 destruction of Schalke. Faced with the possibility of losing star players Timo Werner & Dayot Upamecano in the summer, this could also be their best chance to end Bayern’s dominance.

Prediction – This title race is going to the wire. Dortmund’s defensive frailties & RB Leipzig’s lack of experience will see them finishing the season with Champions League qualification. Bayern’s squad strength & experience under the guidance of Hans Flick will carry them to their 8th straight Meisterschale.

Champions League Qualification

The final Champions League spot will be contested between Bayer Leverkusen & Borussia Mochengladbach. Two points separate them with their clash May 23rd potentially one of the games of the season.

Leverkusen were in a good moment winning 9 out of 10 fixtures across all competitions before the league suspended. They have a young talented squad with Kai Havertz, Moussa Diaby, Leon Bailey & Ezequiel Palacios the highlights.

Gladbach’s biggest advantage was a lighter fixture schedule with no European football to distract them. With the Champions & Europa leagues suspended, the playing field is even. They’ll hope the creativity and goalscoring exploits of Alassane Plea (8 Goals, 7 Assists) and rising star Marcus Thuram  (Son of legend Lilian) can keep their title & Champions League aspirations alive.

Prediction – Leverkusen pick up where they left off with the playmaking skills of future Ballon d’Or Contender Kai Havertz & the pace of Moussa Diaby helping them clinch 4th. Gladbach finish 5th wandering what could of been.

Europa League Qualification 

With Leverkusen & Bayern favorites to reach the DFB Pokal final, Germany’s last Europa League spot looks set to be awarded to 7th place.

Schalke sit in 6th with 2 points separating them from the three teams below; Wolfsburg, Freiburg & Hoffenheim. All four have been inconsistent with their form and suffered heavy defeats.

Schalke, Wolfsburg & Freiburg all play each other with the latter two facing four of the top 5 as well. Hoffenheim will soon be strengthened with star striker Andrej Kramarić returning from injury & have the easiest schedule, facing only 2 teams above them.

Prediction – With the easier schedules, Hoffenheim & Schalke will finish 6th & 7th respectively.

Bundesliga Relegation

German football is unique to other top leagues in Europe with 16th facing the 3rd placed 2. Bundesliga team in a two-leg Promotion/Relegation playoff.

Uwe Rösler took charge late January and Fortuna Dusseldorf’s form improved (1W, 4D and 1L). They welcome Paderborn on Saturday with 3 points a must if they’re to entertain any hope of survival. This is of bigger importance given their five game stretch coming up against Schalke, Bayern, Hoffenheim, Dortmund & Leipzig.

Werder Bremen finished 8th last season, suffering only three defeats at home in the Volkswagen Arena. They missed Europa League qualification by a point. This year they find themselves the other end of the table in serious trouble, collecting just one home win back in Match Week 3. They have a tough fixture schedule but will hope the 2 month break can spark a return to last season’s form.

SC Paderborn sit 10 points adrift from safety. It will take something special, equivalent to Leicester City’s great escape back in 14/15 to prevent their return to 2. Bundesliga.

Prediction – The two month layoff will benefit Bremen the most helping them to rediscover last year’s form & lift them to 16th. They’ll most likely face VFB Stuttgart or Hamburg for one last shot at survival. Dusseldorf’s fixture schedule looks hopeless & they’ll be joining Paderborn in 2. Bundesliga next season.

DFB Pokal

Semi Finals – Leverkusen beat 4th tier side Saarbrücken & Bayern progress against Frankfurt.

Final – Leverkusen beat Bayern 2-1 thanks to a goal, assist & Man of the Match performance from Wunderkid Kai Havertz.

Bundesliga Betting Tips & Advice

With the fans removed home advantage is gone. The biggest effect will be on the weaker teams who rely on stadium atmospheres to raise their performance against the big guns. With no European distractions the top teams will fully focus & show their quality, continuing to dominate games, score frequently & win.

Back Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen & Borussia Mochengladbach to win when not facing each other. They make up five of the six teams who have positive goal difference & are way ahead of the rest in terms of squad depth & quality.

The Bundesliga has averaged 3.25 goals a game & this will continue. From the 25 fixtures played, 16 of Bayern’s, 15 of Dortmund’s & 13 of Leipzig’s have finished with 4 goals or more. Back these three with the Over (3.5 goals at most).

Bayern, Dortmund & Leipzig win & they win big. 10 of Bayern’s, 8 of Dortmund’s & 7 of Leipzig’s wins have been by 3 goals or more. Back them Handicapped (-2.5 goals at most) especially when at home.

Summary

  • Champions – Bayern Munich
  • Champions League – RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund & Bayer Leverkusen
  • Europa League – Borussia Mochengladbach, Hoffenhiem & Schalke
  • Promotion/Relegation Playoff – Werder Bremen
  • Relegated – SC Paderborn & Fortuna Dusseldorf
  • DFB Pokal Champions – Bayer Leverkusen

WHERE TO BET THE BUNDESLIGA IN THE US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey, Indiana and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Alex Blowers

Dejected Newcastle fan & latest member to join High Press Soccer focusing on the Bundesliga Guten Tag everyone! Twitter - @TheVegasRegista

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