Matchday 05 was another profitable weekend with 3 of my 4 bets cashing. Borussia Mochengladbach rallied in the second half to come from 2-1 down & win 3-2. I knew the SC Freiburg line was way off & they held FC Union Berlin to a 1-1 draw. Bayern Munich Half Time / Full Time cashed again for the 4th time this season.
Borussia Dortmund let me down in the Revierderby. They dominated the first half with 77% possession & 9 shots on goal but couldn’t find the back of the net. Schalke cracked in the second half & it ended up being a comfortable 3-0 win for BVB over their biggest rivals.
BORUSSIA MOCHENGLADBACH VS RB LEIPZIG
RB Leipzig come into this game top of the Bundesliga but on the end of a 5 goal thrashing from Manchester United in the Champions League. It was a tough night for Julian Nagelsmann who suffered the biggest defeat of his managerial career & got absolutely savaged on social media for another bold wardrobe choice.
Borussia Mochengladbach surrendered another lead in the 90th minute as Real Madrid came from behind to earn a point in their Champions League fixture. Marco Rose’s side haven’t kept a clean sheet this season & have scored in six of their seven fixtures.
We could see a big response from Leipzig or Gladbach could fix their concentration issues & see out a win. Either way I think we will see goals & both of their last two meetings have resulted in 4 goals.
Prediction – 1 Unit: Over 3.5 Goals +140
SCHALKE 04 VS VFB STUTTGART
Manual Baum has been in the Schalke hot seat for about a month now. He has focused on shoring up the defense & making them tougher to beat with a switch to a 3-5-2 formation. It is starting to reap rewards as they limited to Dortmund to just 2 shots on target & kept a clean sheet in the first half of the Revierderby.
So far it has cost them possession away from home, against better opposition, with just 26% of the ball against Dortmund & 33% against RB Leipzig. At home to FC Union Berlin in Matchday 04 they saw 53% of the ball & earned their first point of the season in a hard fought 1-1 draw.
VFB Stuttgart kicked the season off with two 5 goal thrillers but their last three outings have finished with 2 goals. Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side have looked astute at the back with just 3 goals conceded in their last four games against opposition that include Bayer Leverkusen & Hertha Berlin.
Both sides are showing signs of defensive improvement & everything points to this being a low goal scoring game.
Prediction – 1 Unit: Under 2.5 Goals +112
ARMINIA BIELEFELD VS BORUSSIA DORTMUND
Lucian Favre has switched Dortmund to a back four in response to last weeks Champions League loss away to Lazio. It looks to have made them more solid at the back with two clean sheets although Schalke & Zenit St Petersburg aren’t the toughest of tests.
Neither are Arminia Bielefeld who many predicted would finish bottom of the table. After a good start they have gone on to lose their last three Bundesliga games conceding 7 & scoring 2.
I see this being another comfortable 2 or 3 goal victory for BVB.
Prediction – 2 Units: Borussia Dortmund -1.5 Goals +116
BAYERN HALF TIME/FULL TIME BET
Bayern are on a seven game winning streak & Robert Lewandowski is scoring for fun with 9 goals in his last three Bundesliga appearances. Alphonso Davies has been ruled out for six to eight weeks but Hansi Flick does have Leroy Sané back from injury.
He also has Jamal Musiala who has seriously impressed in his 5 appearances. The 17 year old Englishman has scored twice already & with more minutes, could be a genuine contender for Rookie of the Season.
Die Roten travel to the RhienEnergieStadion to face FC Köln this Saturday. The Billy Goats are yet to a win a game this season & the last time they beat Bayern was back in February 2011. Since that victory they have drawn just once with Bayern winning all the other 11 fixtures.
I’m so confident in Bayern right now that I’m backing them with my first 3 Unit play of the season.
Prediction – 3 Units: Bayern Half Time/Full Time -205
HT/FT Results: Wins 4, Losses 1
SEASON BETTING RESULTS
TOTAL WINS: 12
TOTAL LOSSES: 6
UNITS: +7.916
WIN %: 66.66%
ROI: +19.79%
WHERE TO BET THE BUNDESLIGA IN THE US
In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey, Indiana and Pennsylvania.
For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook.
