Matchday 17 ended in another small 0.507 Unit loss after one of my bets hit & the other didn’t. It’s another weekend finishing in the red & my luck has to turn soon.
WONDERKID WIRTZ DOWNS DORTMUND
Bayer Leverkusen deserved to win this game by more. Their gameplan was spot on, but their finishing let them down.
Moussa Diaby opened the scoring in the 14th minute & it was a real team goal. Lucas Alario’s pressing forced Borussia Dortmund to go long. Wendell won the header easily & picked out Leon Bailey. As soon as Leverkusen won possession, Diaby burst behind Dortmund’s backline & Bailey picked him out perfectly. Diaby controlled the ball sublimely into his path, kept his composure & put the ball into the back of the net through Roman Bürki’s legs.
Dortmund got back into the game in the 67th minute when Julian Brandt ended a 30 game streak without a goal to haunt his former club. He found himself in space on the edge of the box & curled the ball perfectly into the corner of the net from 20 yards out. Brandt is blessed with an abundance of natural talent, but consistency has really plagued him these last 12 months. Seconds after the restart, Brandt had the goal at his mercy but made a poor connection with the ball that allowed Edmond Tapsoba to get the block in.
Wonder kid Florian Wirtz scored the winner in the 80th minute. Thomas Meunier should have dealt with the defensive clearance much better. His heavy touch was instantly pounced on by Patrik Schick, who played a lovely one-touch combination with Diaby to set him free. The 21-year-old winger found Wirtz, who was in acres of space & it felt like it took an age for the ball to get to him. The 17-year-old waited patiently like a seasoned pro & fired across Bürki to cash my bet.
It’s only natural Wirtz is compared with Kai Havertz. They have both come through the Leverkusen youth setup, broke into the first team at a young age & have been the club’s youngest ever goalscorer. There’s a real belief that Wirtz will surpass Havertz as he’s always already having an impact on big games. He’s on 6 goals & 4 assists in all competitions so far & Leverkusen’s latest jewel is looking 16 carats.
FRANKFURT MISS AN OPPORTUNITY
I got off to a great start when Amin Younes turned brilliantly & scored to put Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 up after 6 minutes. I was doing even better on 32 minutes when Roland Sallai chipped the ball over Kevin Trapp to round off a superb move & make it 1-1. Halftime hits & I think I’ve got this in the bag. Both teams had scored & Luka Jović will be on soon to get Frankfurt the win.
The second half starts where’s Jović? 60 minutes hits where’s Jović? Nils Petersen just made it 2-1 to SC Freiburg WHERE’S JOVIĆ? He entered play in the 66th minute & Frankfurt leveled 9 minutes later after Kevin Schlotterbeck turned Daichi Kamada’s volley into his own net. The winner never came & it finished all square at 2-2.
I understand Adi Hütter’s reasoning for limiting Jović’s minutes & easing him back gradually. He made just 5 appearances for Real Madrid in the first half of the season & is severely lacking match fitness. But, they went into this game knowing a win would put them joint 4th. Frankfurt’s next 4 opponents are Arminia Bielefeld, Hertha Berlin, Hoffenheim & FC Köln & all winnable. They need to make the most of these opportunities if they want to qualify for Europe next season.
BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH VS BORUSSIA DORTMUND
Dortmund has won the last 12 meetings & it’s easy to think this run will continue looking at the Lines. Borussia Mönchengladbach has increased from +195 to +225, whilst BVB’s has shortened from +130 to +110. I’m scratching my head trying to work out why.
Gladbach is unbeaten in 2021 with 3 wins & a draw. Marcus Thuram is back from his 5 game suspension & Marco Rose almost has a full squad to pick from, with Valentino Lazaro, the only absentee.
Dortmund kicked off 2021 on a high with wins over VfL Wolfsburg & RB Leipzig. They have been poor since with a draw against relegation favorites Mainz 05 & defeat to Leverkusen. Thomas Delaney is suspended & Thorgan Hazard, Marcel Schmelzer, Axel Witsel & Dan-Axel Zagadou are all out with injury. Edin Terzić talked up his side to respond to the midweek defeat with a big performance. But, where was the big performance in response to the Mainz draw? I think Terzić is a bit out of his depth & Dortmund will continue to falter.
🎙 Edin Terzic:— Borussia Dortmund (@BlackYellow) January 21, 2021
"We discussed the Leverkusen match in great detail and we expect the guys to perform differently tomorrow." pic.twitter.com/PTcjPFCKew
Back Gladbach to win, who are in a better moment & will be highly motivated to break the 12 game losing streak.
Prediction – 2 Units: Borussia Mönchengladbach Money Line +225
MAINZ 05 VS RB LEIPZIG
Mainz 05’s top goalscorer Jean-Phillippe Mateta has left the club. He has 10 goals & moved to Premier League side Crystal Palace on an 18-month loan deal with an obligation to buy if certain criteria are met. Their second-highest goalscorer is Robin Quaison with 3 & nine other players are on 1. New manager Bo Svensson has his work cut out to get goals out of this team.
Leipzig played really well against FC Union Berlin & deserved to beat them by a bigger scoreline than 1-0. Poor finishing cost them & Alexander Sørloth is still finding his feet with just 5 starts under his belt. Yussef Poulsen & Emil Forsberg should return to the starting lineup for this game to add familiarity in the attacking third.
🗣️ Head coach Julian #Nagelsmann:— RB Leipzig English (@RBLeipzig_EN) January 20, 2021
"Against Union, you're not going to get many opportunities. However, we created three big chances and took one. As we expected, we had more possession and more shots. I liked the fact that the team remained patient."
🔴⚪ #RBLeipzig #RBLFCU pic.twitter.com/Gxz6HBxLpN
Leipzig wins this one comfortably by 2 or 3 goals.
Mainz just lost their biggest attacking threat & Julian Nagelsmann’s side has the best defense in the league. Leipzig to win this & keep a clean sheet.
Prediction – 2 Units: RB Leipzig -1.5 Goals +123 & 1 Unit: RB Leipzig to Win to Nil +163
SEASON BETTING RESULTS
WIN %: 50.94%
WHERE TO BET THE BUNDESLIGA IN THE US
In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey, Indiana, and Pennsylvania.