Matchday 26 was the second week in a row; a big side I backed choked against one of the Bundesliga’s struggling sides.
Borussia Dortmund could only manage a 2-2 draw against FC Köln to sink my 2 game parlay. My other Parlay almost hit as well with the Bayern Munich Money Line and Over 3.5 Goals coming through. All that was left was for Both Teams To Score but, VfB Stuttgart failed despite having a man advantage for 78 minutes after Alphonso Davies was sent off.
Fortunately, I can always rely on FC Schalke 04 to make me money as Borussia Mönchengladbach beat them 3-0. I’m going to be sad to see them get relegated and have developed a love for them this season. That meant 1 of my 3 bets hit, and I finished the Matchday down 2.3 Units.
Hit me up on Twitter @RegistaPicks with your thoughts, who you support, and picks for the week.
BORUSSIA DORTMUND VS EINTRACHT FRANKFURT BETTING TIPS
This is a massive 6 pointer in the race for the Top 4. Dortmund is in 5th and 4 points behind 4th placed Eintracht Frankfurt. Both need Champions League football to help convince their star strikers Erling Haaland and André Silva to stay for another season.
Reports are circulating that Erling’s father, ex-Manchester City player Alf-Inge Haaland and his agent Mino Raiola are doing a stop tour of Europe’s elite clubs to discuss his next move. Barcelona and Real Madrid have already made their sales pitch, and it’s Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Manchester United up next.
Personally, I don’t see him moving this summer. His release clause doesn’t activate till 2022, and Dortmund isn’t obliged to sell. With Jadon Sancho set to leave, they will stand firm unless someone is willing to pay the €150 million asking price. But, if he does go, Manchester City makes the most sense. His father played for them, Sergio Aguero has announced he’s leaving at the end of the season, and they have the financial resources to pull the transfer off.
This stat is absolutely ridiculous. For the first time in his career, Haaland has gone 3 games without scoring a goal since he joined Molde in 2017. He’s played around 125 games since then.
Silva’s been in brilliant form this season, scoring 21 goals and providing 3 assists. Some of Europe’s elite clubs are taking notice and weighing up a move in the summer. He struggled at AC Milan after a big-money move in 2017, and I think that experience will make him think twice. He’s looking settled in Frankfurt, and if they can offer him Champions League football, I think he stays for one more season. If they can’t, he’ll move on.
Both sides are blessed with attacking threat and creativity. Between them, they have scored 107 goals and conceded 73 in 52 games. That averages out to 3.46 goals a game, so the safe bet is to back goals.
I also think there’s value in Frankfurt getting something from this game. Filip Kostić has 10 assists, and Daichi Kamada 9, and both are available. Whilst Dortmund’s assist king Sancho (10) is out with a thigh injury, Raphaël Guerrero (8) is back from injury.
Prediction – 2 Units: Over 3.5 Goals +118 | 2 Units: First Half Over 1.5 Goals +112 | 1 Unit: Eintracht Frankfurt or the Draw +108
MAINZ 05 VS ARMINIA BIELEFELD BETTING TIPS
This could be another season-deciding fixture but at the opposite end of the table. 15th placed Mainz 05 have dragged themself out of the relegation zone under Bo Svensson and will be hoping to get a win here to pull further away from danger.
Arminia Bielefeld has also shown promise under new manager Frank Kramer with a 2-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen and 1-0 defeat to RB Leipzig. The hero of both of those games was Stefan Ortega, who made some ridiculous saves, and he’s been one of the best goalkeepers in the league this season. They find themselves down in 17th, and a win here would lift them out of the automatic relegation spots.
As much as they both need the 3 points, neither can afford to lose. Looking at their last four games, three of them have finished under 2.5 goals for both sides.
I’m backing a tight low scoring game.
Prediction – 2 Units: Under 2.5 Goals -134
SEASON BETTING RESULTS
WIN %: 47.72%
WHERE TO BET THE BUNDESLIGA IN THE US
In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey, Indiana, and Pennsylvania.