Bundesliga Matchday 28 Betting Tips: FC Köln vs Mainz 05 Fight For Survival

Posted By Alex Blowers on April 9, 2021

Matchday 27 was a great weekend, with 4 of my 6 bets hitting for 6.013 Units of profit.

Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund went into halftime at 1-1 for my first half Over 1.5 Goals to hit. In the 87th minute, Filip Kostić dug out a cross to the back post that found André Silva. He rose like a salmon to power in a header that earned Frankfurt the 3 points and takes them one step closer to Champions League qualification.

Mainz 05 and Arminia Bielefeld played out a tense 1-1 draw for Under 2.5 Goals to hit. Bayern Munich all but ended the Bundesliga title race with their hard fort 1-0 victory over RB Leipzig. It was a great performance, and I was surprised to see Sports Books increase their line to +150 as kick-off approached.

Hit me up on Twitter @RegistaPicks with your thoughts, who you support, and picks for the week.


The fight for survival is looking like the only race still alive this season. This weekend we have 16th placed FC Köln hosting 15th placed Mainz on Sunday at the RheinEnergieStadion. 2 points separate them, and a win for either side would be a massive boost to their survival chances.

Mainz looked down and out going into the winter break on 6 points. The Board decided to put their faith in Bo Svensson, and he has done an amazing job collecting 19 points since his appointment. They have all the momentum right now, and I’m confident we will see them playing in the Bundesliga next season.

Köln has struggled all season and is yet to string to two wins in a row. They are also on a 7 game streak without a win (3 draws, 4 losses) and will be hoping they can get something out of this game with Bayer Leverkusen and Leipzig up next. I don’t think it’s looking good for The Billy Goats, and you can get them at +150 to be relegated.

The biggest issue for both of these sides is scoring goals. Mainz has 27 and Köln 25 for the season, with neither side having a proven goalscorer. Elvis Rexhbeçaj leads the way for The Billy Goats with 5 whilst Mainz has Kevin Stöger, Moussa Niakhaté, and Robin Quaison all on 3 goals (Jean-Philippe Mateta has 7 but has joined Crystal Palace on loan).

I cashed in on Mainz’s match finishing Under 2.5 Goals last weekend and I’m going to back that again here. I think this will be a tight game like their meeting in mid-December which Köln won 1-0.

Prediction – 2 Units: Under 2.5 Goals -137 | 2 Units: FC Köln to be Relegated +150


It is very likely we will see these two sides competing in the Champions League next season. VfL Wolfsburg has an 11 point lead and Frankfurt a 7 point lead over Dortmund and Leverkusen with 7 games left. They meet this weekend, and both sides will be going for the win.

Frankfurt has only lost once in their last 16 games, picking up 11 wins and 4 draws. Adi Hütter has done a fantastic job, and they have played some of the best-attacking football in the league with 55 goals scored. Luka Jović was brought back on loan from Real Madrid to rediscover his form and share the goalscoring burden placed on Silva. He has gone 9 games without a goal, but I have a feeling he will end his drought this weekend.

Wolfsburg’s success this season has been built on their back four. USMNT John Brooks has formed a brilliant partnership with 21-year-old Maxence Lacroix at center back earning them the joint best defensive record with 22 goals conceded. Incoming Dortmund manager Marco Rose is reported to be a big fan of the young Frenchmen. Rumors are circulating that Die Wolfe will do business at €30 million.

Both of these sides start quickly and have scored 26 goals each in the first half this season whilst conceding 27 between them. With both teams going for the win here I think we will see goals early on and that’s what I’m backing here. I also think there’s great value in backing Over 2.5 Goals, with their last two meetings finishing 2-1.

Prediction – 2 Units: First Half Over 1.5 Goals +160 | 1 Unit: First Half Both Teams To Score YES +300 | 2 Units: Over 2.5 Goals -137 | 1 Unit: Luka Jović to Score YES +163


Betting Tracker

WINS: 46
UNITS: +3.164
WIN %: 48.93%
ROI: +7.91%


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Alex Blowers

Betting advice for the Premier League & Bundesliga! Twitter - @Regista_Alex

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