LINE: RB Leipzig +180 | Draw +265 | Bayern Munich +140
KICK OFF: Saturday, April 3rd, 12:30PM EST
WHERE: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany
This the biggest game in this season’s title race so far. 4 points separate these two sides, and RB Leipzig must win to keep their Meisterschale dreams alive. A win for Bayern Munich would put them 7 points clear, and it would be tough for anyone to catch them with only seven games left.
We had a similar situation last season when Bayern played Borussia Dortmund after lockdown. Joshua Kimmich chipped Roman Burki just behalf halftime to score the game’s only goal, and Die Roten went on to complete the treble.
These two played out a thrilling 3-3 at the Allianz Arena back in early December. An injury to Javi Martínez forced a change on 25 minutes, and 17-year-old Jamal Musiala announced himself to the world. He scored minutes after entering the game and recently picked Germany to represent at international level over England.
I’m gutted about his choice and would have loved to have seen him play for us. But, he feels a deeper connection with Germany, and I respect his decision.
Julian Nagelsmann is missing a few key players for this game. Kevin Kampl is suspended, Angelinō is doubtful as he recovers from his thigh injury, and Marcel Halstenberg is quarantining for 14 days after being exposed to COVID-19. He sat down for a game of Backgammon with Borussia Mönchengladbach’s Jonas Hoffman, who tested positive later on. Halstenberg has produced multiple negative tests, but the authorities are refusing to clear him for this game.
In their 3-3 draw earlier in the season, Nagelsmann went with a 4-3-3 formation. Looking at his options, I think he will stick with a back four but switch to a 4-2-3-1 to control the center of the pitch. I would go with his technical players Marcel Sabitzer, Christopher Nkunku, Emil Forsberg, and Dani Olmo to crowd Thomas Müller, Leon Goretzka, and Kimmich and reduce their influence.
Up top, I would go with Yussef Poulsen to lead the line. He only has five goals and4 assists in the Bundesliga, but he’s more experienced than Alexander Sørloth and is better at linking up with the midfield and creating space.
Bayern received the devastating news earlier this week that Robert Lewandowski would miss the next four weeks with sprained knee ligaments. It’s a massive blow to him and their season as this such a crucial point. I think Hansi Flick will pick Serge Gnabry to lead the line and have Leroy Sané, Thomas Müller, and Kingsley Coman operating behind him. That is still a pretty tasty attacking forward line, and they will cause problems for Leipzig.
At the back, Alphonso Davies and Jérôme Boateng are both suspended. Fortunately, Niklas Süle looks like he’s going to make it after being ruled out of all three of Germany’s games with a muscle problem. He will partner David Alaba in central defense, and Lucas Hernández will come in at left-back.
Bayern has their big guns in the center of the pitch. Goretzka (Recently nicknamed Scoretzka by Müller to accompany Lewangoalski) and Kimmich are my favorite central midfield partnership in the game right now. They will drive Die Roten forward.
RB Leipzig’s home form has been pretty impressive this season, but the absence of Kampl in the center of the pitch, Angelinō’s width down the left, and Halstenberg at the back is a big loss. You can get Bayern at +140, and I think that’s too good of a price to turn down, especially with Kimmich, Goretzka, and Müller all available to start.
Back Bayern to win and put a little change on them doing it by a couple of goals or more.
Prediction – 3 Units: Bayern Munich Money Line +140 | 1 Unit: Bayern -1.5 Goals +380
SEASON BETTING RESULTS
WIN %: 47.72%
WHERE TO BET THE BUNDESLIGA IN THE US
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