Carabao Cup Final Betting 21/22: Chelsea vs Liverpool Betting Preview

Written By Alex Blowers on February 26, 2022

On September 20th, I posted a Carabao Cup Third Round Lines, Futures and Tips article recommending Chelsea +600 as the best value side to win this competition. My exact words were:

“At this moment, I think Chelsea represents the best value. The squad depth at Thomas Tuchel’s disposal is ridiculous, and the players are at a point when they can rotate in and out of the team with ease. Plus, I think Tuchel will want to amend for last season’s FA Cup final defeat to Leicester City and win his first domestic trophy at the club”.

Here we are five months later, and I think I was pretty spot on. Despite Chelsea’s issues over the festive period, they had enough to get here and only have Liverpool standing between them lifting the Carabao Cup. The game is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 AM EST and will be shown line on ESPN+ from Wembley.

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Carabao Cup Final Betting: Chelsea vs Liverpool Betting Preview

*Odds Taken from DraftKings Saturday, February 26th, 1 AM EST


CompetitionOpponentHome/AwayGoals ForGoals AgainstTotal GoalsxG ForxG AgainstTotal xGxG Difference
FA CupPlymouth Argyle (AET)Home213N/AN/AN/AN/A
FIFA Club World CupAl-Hilal SaudiNeutral101N/AN/AN/AN/A
FIFA Club World CupPalmeiras (AET)Neutral213N/AN/AN/AN/A
Premier LeagueCrystal PalaceAway1011.20.61.8+0.6
UEFA Champions LeagueLilleHome2021.20.51.7+0.7
Total / Average Per Game8 / 1.62 / 0.410 / 22.4 / 1.21.1 / 0.553.5 / 1.75+1.3 / +0.65

Stats taken from FBREF

Carabao Cup Final Betting: Chelsea vs Liverpool Betting Preview


Out: Ben Chilwell (ACL)
Doubtful: Callum Hudson-Odoi (Knock), Reece James (Thigh)
Suspended: None
Coach: Thomas Tuchel

We’re all wondering if Romelu Lukaku starts. He dropped to the bench for Tuesday night’s UEFA Champions League match against Lille and never made it on the pitch. I will give Tuchel the benefit of the doubt and assume he’s saving his $136 million summer signing for this match.

Reece James is back in training and could make his first start of 2022. It’s more likely he will start on the bench with César Azpilicueta continuing at right wing-back.

Mason Mount watched Tuesday’s 2-0 win from the bench, and I’m confident he’ll start alongside Kai Havertz. That means Christian Pulišić, aka Captain America, will drop out of the starting XI despite his goal and good performance. Mateo Kovačić and Hakim Ziyech both went off injured but are expected to be available.

Kepa has started every Carabao Cup game and will start the final. In the 2019 final he refused to come off when Mauricio Sarri wanted to bring on Willy Caballero for the penalty shootout, eventually losing to Manchester City. That incident has haunted his time in England, and this is his chance for redemption.


CompetitionOpponentHome/AwayGoals ForGoals AgainstTotal GoalsxG ForxG AgainstTotal xGxG Difference
Premier LeagueLeicester CityHome2022.80.33.1+2.5
Premier LeagueBurnleyAway1011.60.82.4+0.8
UEFA Champions LeagueInter MilanAway2020.70.41.1+0.3
Premier LeagueNorwich CityHome3143.00.63.6+2.4
Premier LeagueLeeds UnitedHome6065.00.15.1+4.9
Total / Average Per Game14 / 2.81 / 0.215 / 313.1 / 2.622.2 / 0.4415.3 / 3.06+10.9 / +2.18

Stats taken from FBREF

Carabao Cup Final Betting: Chelsea vs Liverpool Betting Preview

Out: Roberto Firmino (Muscular)
Doubtful: Diogo Jota (Ankle)
Suspended: None
Coach: Jürgen Klopp

I think we will see three changes to the side that destroyed Leeds United 6-0 on Wednesday.

Backup goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher has started every Carabao Cup game and will play in the final. Against Inter Milan, Ibrahima Konaté was brought into the side for his pace, and Jürgen Klopp will do the same here. Club captain Jordan Henderson will replace Curtis Jones in midfield.

Roberto Firmino has been ruled out, and Diogo Jota faces a late fitness test. Even if he passes, I can’t see him starting ahead of Luis Díaz, Sadio Mané, or Mohamed Salah.


I picked Chelsea to win this competition five months ago, and I have to see it through. I’m taking Tuchel’s side on the Moneyline, and I like Kai Havertz’s price to score anytime. I feel he can be the difference and get on the scoresheet just like he did in last season’s UEFA Champions League final.

PREMIER LEAGUE BETTING TIPS: Kai Havertz Anytime Goalscorer +350 | Chelsea Moneyline +220


In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in more than two dozen states. You can bet online in some states, but only in-person betting is allowed in most of them.

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Alex Blowers

Betting advice for the Premier League, Bundesliga & UEFA Champions League! Alex also contributes to NBC Sports Edge and TheLines. You can follow him on Twitter @AlexJBlowers

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