Premier League Relegation & Promotion: Cardiff City Almost Certainly Dropping, Who Is Coming Up?

High Press 10 April 13, 2019 409 Reads

Burnley defeated Cardiff City today 2-0 in what was essentially a relegation scrap.

In typical year, the relegation zone is around 38 points. Get to or go over 38, you’re almost certainly safe.

The win moved Burnley to 39 points. They’re likely very safe, with less than a 1% chance of relegation now.

Southampton had a spirited 3-1 win over Wolverhampton today. Earlier this week we said to take a look at the +160 for the Saints. They’ve been on the upswing. The win also moves them to a <1% of relegation. They’re all but a lock to stay up.

That leaves Cardiff (28) and Brighton Hove & Albion (33) to fight, scrap, and claw their way out of the relegation zone.

With 33 points, Brighton clearly have the advantage. Oddsmakers agree. BetStars NJ have Cardiff as -2500 to drop (meaning you need to bet $2500 to win $100), and that may actually be the safest wager you can make in sports right now. Brighton is +700. But given the odds, you’d have more fun wagering on who will win the Premier League between Manchester City (-190) or Liverpool (+125) over at FanDuel Sportsbook NJ.

So while it’s technically not over, it’s over. Huddersfield Town, Fulham, and Cardiff City will be dropped to the Championship next season.

Who will be promoted from the Championship League to the Premier League for 2019-20?

The three best teams as far as points and goal differential are Norwich City, Leeds United and Sheffield United.

How Championship League promotion works

If you look at the probabilities, you’ll notice that the top three teams aren’t assured promotion just yet. That’s because Championship League is a combination of points and a playoff. The top two teams are automatically promoted to the Premier League. The next four teams in points compete in a playoff were the winner earns their promotion.

So with that in mind, Norwich looks like a lock and Leeds isn’t far behind. While Sheffield is of higher quality than the other likely playoff entrants, they’re by no means close to punching a ticket into top tier English soccer just yet.

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