When Champions League brackets were originally formed, Group G was immediately identified as the most evenly-matched one. All four teams had a shot to win. After four matches, it’s the only group where all four teams at least have a realistic path to advance.
Champions League Group G Standings
|Zenit St Petersburg||4||1||1||2||5||6||-1||4|
Champions League Group G Top 2 Odds
Despite being a Pot 4 team, RB Leipzig was considered the likely favorite to win this group from day 1. While not as dominant as we expected, they’re still comfortably in position to advance–and likely win–the group.
After Leipzig, it really comes down to Zenit and Lyon. While Zenit is currently in third, they are a very good value at +300 to move past Lyon and into the Round of 16.
Is Lyon in danger?
To be fair, oddsmakers have them about even with Zenit on November 27th for the win. Zenit though have a distinct home advantage.
On the final matchday, Lyon host RB Leipzig while Zenit travels to Benfica.
If Zenit defeat Lyon on the 27th, they’ll both be tied at 7 points. Matchday 6 would determine who advances. The saving grace for Lyon is if Leipzig are comfortably through, atop the group and with little to play for, they may not roll out their A team. Benfica will be favored to beat Zenit.
So while Lyon should be odds-on to advance as they currently are, there is a realistic path for Pot 1 Zenit as well.