LINE: Borussia Dortmund +390 | Draw +340 | Bayern Munich -165
KICK OFF: Saturday, March 6th, 12:30PM EST
WHERE: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
WATCH: ABC and ESPN+
It’s our third Der Klassiker of the season with Borussia Dortmund facing Bayern Munich. For the first time ever, ABC will be broadcasting a live Bundesliga game in the USA. I work at the ABC affiliate in Las Vegas for my day job, so it’s pretty cool to see this happening.
When these two met back in early November, they were joint top & separated only by goal difference. Their fortunes have varied since then, with Bayern remaining top and being crowned FIFA Club World Champions. Dortmund parted ways with their manager Lucien Favre and has sunk to fifth outside the Champions League qualification spots.
With 11 games left in the season, every point matters, and neither side can afford to lose. I’m confident we will see a thrilling end-to-end open game, and 7 of the last 10 encounters have finished with 4 goals or more.
If you’re going to watch one game this weekend, make sure it’s Der Klassiker.
Der Klassiker Projected Starting XI’s
Hansi Flick has his best eleven available except for Benjamin Pavard. Niklas Süle has deputized at RB for the last 3 games after it became apparent that summer signing Bouna Sarr isn’t up to the required standard. Süle is a potential weak link, and I think we will see Dortmund trying to exploit his lack of experience in this position and get in behind.
Leroy Sané would be my pick at LW. 21-year-old RB Matt Morey has only recently been preferred ahead of Thomas Meunier, and Sané’s directness would cause him a lot of problems.
As good as Jamal Musiala has been deputizing for Thomas Müller, I would start him on the bench and pick the Raumdeuter. You only have to look at Müller’s numbers to see how important he is to Bayern’s frontline. 10 goals and 11 assists in 20 starts is a great return from a player who looked to be heading out the door 18 months ago.
Edin Terzić will be sweating his team selection right up to kick-off. Jadon Sancho and Raphaël Guerreiro are doubtful, and their absence will completely change how he sets his side up. The England international has been back to his best in recent weeks with 6 goals and 5 assists in his last 9 games.
If he’s fit enough to start, I would play him on the LW. His pace, trickery, and directness will be a real test for Süle, and BVB could get some fortune down that side of the pitch. If he doesn’t make it, I would start Thorgan Hazard, Dortmund’s next most direct winger.
Thomas Delaney and Mahmoud Dahoud are too defensive to play together in CM. Jude Bellingham would be my choice to partner with one of them. The 17-year-old is the closest Dortmund has to a box-to-box midfielder, and his technique and physicality are excellent.
It’s been almost 3 months now since Gio Reyna scored or provided an assist, but I would still start him in this game. You’re never going to beat Alphonso Davies for pace, but you can with skill, and the precocious USMNT talent is tricker than the inconsistent Julian Brandt.
Der Klassiker Prediction
Dortmund is on a mini resurgence of late with 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 games. They haven’t conceded in 3 games and scored 13 goals on this run. A big part of that was the form of Guerreiro and Sancho. Their probable absence will be sorely missed against an almost full-strength Bayern.
Die Roten have had a mini-blip of late which has seen their lead at the top cut to 2 points. For me, the biggest contributing factor for those 5 dropped points was Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka unavailable in central midfield. I love watching these two play together, and having them back in the starting lineup will drive Bayern to victory.
Prediction – 2 Units: Parlay Over 2.5 Goals and Bayern Munich Money Line -113 | 1 Unit: Parlay Over 3.5 Goals and Bayern Munich Money Line +163
I’m jumping on Erling Haaland to score any time at +102. He’s in great form and scored against Bayern in both of their meetings this season.
Player Prop – 1 Unit: Erling Haaland To Score Yes +102
SEASON BETTING RESULTS
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WHERE TO BET THE BUNDESLIGA IN THE US
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