Raise your hand if you saw that coming!
Manchester City lost at Norwich today 3-2. Over on DraftKings Sportsbook NJ, Norwich was +1500 underdogs.
Unlike when they drew Tottenham, City actually deserved to drop points today. They committed several individual errors. xG favored City but not by an unreasonable amount (1.74 Norwich to 2.34 City). As a whole, Norwich’s players performed better.
After five games, City are now five points (!!!) behind Liverpool. When most of us saw the 2019-20 Premier League schedule, consensus opinion was that City would coast until they traveled to Anfield in November. Suddenly, City’s match at Anfield may be an absolute must-win for their title hopes.
City are still favorites…because why?
Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, City are still ODDS-ON FAVORITES to win the Premier League, though not as heavily as previously.
|Manchester City -180||Liverpool +140||Tottenham +3200|
FiveThirtyEight probability models have them even with Liverpool.
Liverpool have won 14 straight Premier League games (tied for 4th all-time). They’re the fifth based team EVER based on ClubElo. They’re reigning European champs. Um, they’re FIVE CLEAR of City already.
City very clearly missed Aymeric Laporte today. The backline is not the same without him. Laporte will potentially miss the remaining 2019-20 campaign. With razor thin margins for error (remember, Liverpool were 11 millimeters from winning the EPL last season), Laporte being out may be the difference in this year’s title race.
Liverpool definitely miss Alisson, but he’s coming back next month and Adrian is holding down the fort just fine for now.
Regardless, despite appearances before the season began, we most certainly have a title race. Despite what oddsmakers say, it is Liverpool’s to lose.