We are days away from Euro 2020 kicking off, and the excitement is starting to set in. 51 games over 31 days will end with one of the players being crowned the Golden Boot winner.
Goalscoring legends Alan Shearer, Marco van Basten, Gerd Müller, Michel Platini, David Villa, Patrick Kluivert, Fernando Torres, Savo Milošević, and Dennis Bergkamp have all woven their names into the history of the game by winning the award.
EURO 2020 GOLDEN BOOT ODDS
Here are Draftkings, BetMGM’s, and FanDuel’s odds for the 11 favorites to win the Euro 2020 Golden Boot.
|**ODDS TAKEN JUNE 5TH 2021**|
As you can see, there’s a big disparity on odds between the Sports Books, so make sure you shop around to get the best value.
WHO TO AVOID FOR THE GOLDEN BOOT
Portugal, France, and Germany all play each other in Group F. I’m confident they will be tight, tense low-scoring games. The fourth team in Group F is Hungary, who will set up in a 3-4-1-2 formation that will become a 5-3-2 when defending. RB Leipzig had the best defense in the Bundesliga this season, and center-back Willi Orbán (11 clean sheets) and goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi (15 clean sheets) played a key part. Their experience and leadership will make Hungary difficult to beat, and I can’t see their games ending in a big scoreline.
France’s front three, Kylian Mbappé, Antione Griezmann, and Karim Benzema, will share the goalscoring responsibilities between them. I don’t think one will pull away and dominate the charts. Mbappé has been France’s designated penalty taker, but Benzema stepped up and missed against Wales in their recent warm-up game. So it’s unclear who will take responsibility at the tournament.
Germany’s Timo Werner has been heavily criticized this season for the number of chances he missed for Chelsea. He could hit a purple patch at the tournament, but I think that’s unlikely. Tony Kroos and ilkay Gündogan are Germany’s designated penalty takers.
There’s a strong case for Cristiano Ronaldo, who is Portugal’s designated penalty taker. At Juventus, he has adapted his game to be a fox in the box whose only contribution is scoring goals. Portugal’s attacking play will be geared towards providing him service, but he has only managed 16 goals in 38 appearances at World Cup and Euro tournaments. He failed to win the Golden Boot at the peak of his powers, and I doubt he will do it at 36-years-old.
Ciro Immobile has struggled to replicate his excellent goal-scoring form for Lazio on the international stage scoring 13 goals in 46 appearances for Italy. I don’t think Robert Lewandowski will get the service from his Poland teammates. Álvaro Morata has never been a prolific goal scorer. The most the Spaniard has managed in a single league campaign is 15 goals despite playing for Juventus, Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, and Chelsea.
WHO TO BACK FOR THE GOLDEN BOOT
Memphis Depay is a wild card. This season he’s been in brilliant form scoring 20 goals and providing 12 assists for Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1, and is close to joining Barcelona on a free transfer. Harry Kane won the 2018 World Cup Golden Boot with 6 goals scoring 5 of them in the opening two games against Panama and Tunisia. The Netherlands/Holland arguably have the easiest group, with North Macedonia, Austria, and Ukraine their opponents. Depay is also their designated penalty taker, so he’s worth considering.
The thing about the Golden Boot is it’s not just goals scored that decide who the winner is. If players finish on the same amount of goals, the player with the most assists (Thomas Müller World Cup 2010) is declared the winner, and if that’s the same, it goes down to who’s played the least amount of minutes (Fernando Torres Euro 2012).
Both Kane and Romelu Lukaku have elevated their game this season, turning into providers as well as goalscorers. Kane finished top of the Premier League assist charts with 13, and Lukaku finished second in Serie A with 11. Both are in comfortable groups they should finish top of, designated penalty takers for their countries, and should be making it to the semi-final stage at least.
BETTING TIP: Hedge your bet by backing the two favorites Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaku.
EURO 2020 GOLDEN BOOT LONGSHOTS
Looking through the longshots, my eye was instantly drawn to Thomas Müller. The self-proclaimed Raumdeuter (Space Interpreter), Mats Hummels, and Jérôme Boateng were told by Joachim Löw they had no future with the German national team shortly after the 2018 World Cup. His form declined, and there was talk of Bayern Munich selling him.
That all changed after the club appointed Hansi Flick in November 2019, helping Müller play some of the best football of his career. These past two seasons, he has contributed 44 assists and 29 goals in all competitions forcing Löw to reverse his decision. The 2010 World Cup Golden Boot and 2014 World Cup winner still has a decent engine on him, ranking 12th for distance covered in the Bundesliga this season.
I’ve watched Bayern a lot these past two seasons, and Müller has been superb. At +6000, he’s definitely worth investing in, and I also recommend backing him to finish Germany’s Top Goalscorer at +600.
BETTING TIP: Thomas Müller to win the Golden Boot Draftkings +6000 | BetMGM +3400 | FanDuel +3400
BONUS BET: Thomas Müller to finish Germany’s Top Goalscorer Draftkings +600 | BetMGM +600
Andrej Kramarić kicked off the 2020/21 Bundesliga campaign with 7 goals in 4 games and finished the season with 20. He has proven time and time again he’s an excellent finisher capable of scoring multiple goals in a game.
It’s ridiculous that BetMGM have him at +10,000 when he has the likes of Mateo Kovačić, Luka Modrić, Marcelo Brozović, Ivan Perišić, and Josip Brekalo feeding him. I highly recommend throwing a little money behind Croatia’s Number 9.
BETTING TIP: Andrej Kramarić to win the Golden Boot Draftkings +4000 | BetMGM +10,000 | FanDuel +8000
WHERE TO BET EURO 2020 IN THE US
In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in 14 states at both online and retail sportsbooks.
We recommend DraftKings Sportsbook for Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.
We also recommend FanDuel Sportsbook for Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.