European Soccer Futures: Why Isn’t Teemu Pukki a Golden Boot Favorite? And Atlético Madrid Finally Getting Respect

High Press 10 August 19, 2019 261 Reads
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It’d be easy to make some hot takes after this weekend of European soccer. PSG is in trouble! Borussia Dortmund will win the Bundesliga! Barcelona can’t win without Messi!

Ok the last one might be true.

Regardless, here’s a look at how futures markets shifted after a weekend of surprising results.

Premier League Golden Boot Winner Teemu Pukki?

Norwich City’s Teemu Pukki led the Championship division last season with 29 goals. Teemu Pukki is tied with Raheem Sterling for Premier League Golden Boot honors right now with four scores. Maybe Teemu Pukki knows how to get goals?

Pukki now has the 8th best odds to finish the year as the Premier League’s top goal scorer at +2200. Sterling, who we noted was mis-priced at +1600 before the season, has catapulted to second favorite at +500.

So much about this is health and opportunity. The English Championship division is a grueling 46 matches. Pukki played in 43 of them last season. Recent history shows he’ll be healthy. Where Sterling has approximately 47 other teammates capable of scoring on any given day, Pukki will be carrying Norwich’s offensive load.

Sterling may also be rested occasionally domestically if City actually don’t bottle again in the Champions League and make a run. Norwich will be relegated if they rest Pukki.

Also worth noting: Sadio Mane has that look about him this season. That +1400 is interesting as well.

Harry Kane +350Aubameyang +500Raheem Sterling +500Mo Salah +550
Sergio Aguero +800Sadio Mane +1400Marcus Rashford +1400Teemu Pukki +2200

Atlético Madrid was so underrated that they’re now overrated?

Atlético Madrid at +1400 to win La Liga last week seemed like the absolute best value bet in Europe. Yes, Barcelona should’ve been favorites. But Atleti had a chance to make noise.

Then Barcelona went and lost their opener. Atleti won theirs. And the odds shifted.

While Barca only moved from -225 to -150 after the loss, Atleti vaulted from +1400 to +700. The value was there at the old price. Little less value now. However, if you like Diego Simeone’s side, those odds will only get shorter if there’s another stumble at Camp Nou.

Bundesliga battle?

Bayern Munich started their 2019-20 campaign with a lackluster draw to Hertha. Borussia Dortmund looked like world-beaters.

However, very little line movement in Germany. Maybe it’s because Bayern added some potential key pieces (if you think Philippe Coutinho counts). Or maybe it’s because Bayern simply always ends up winning their domestic title.

We liked BVB before the season, and we like them more now. They moved from +400 to +300 after matchday 1. That’s still good value.

Ligue Ugh

If you’re one of those masochists who enjoys Ligue 1, then maybe you’re excited about Lyon’s potential. PSG lost their second match and tumbled from -1250 to -715. at DraftKings Sportsbook NJ. Lyon is now +400. Lille is now third at +5000.

PSG is still winning. Avert your eyes.

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What about Manchester City?

Yeah, Manchester City dropped points to Tottenham on Saturday. Nobody walked away after watching that match though thinking, “You know, Spurs are right at City’s level!”

Minimal movement over in England. City will need to faceplant before their November trip to Anfield for any notable line changes to occur.

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