European soccer’s Saturday slate of games features a few top four fixtures.
In the Premier League, Chelsea visits Unai Emery’s suddenly sliding Chelsea. In Spain, Sevilla goes to Real Madrid in a battle for third in La Liga. And in Germany, RB Leipzig hope to solidify their top 4 position as Borussia Dortmund comes to visit.
View latest Premier League odds here.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea
This is the Premier League’s most interesting weekend match-up. If Arsenal wants to challenge for a top 4 spot this season, a win here is a must. They currently sit six points off Chelsea for 4th. A strong showing and a win will signal Arsenal is still a factor. A loss, dropping them 9 points from Chelsea (and potentially 10 from Tottenham) likely ends all hope for Gunners fans of a 2019-20 Champions League appearance.
On the other side of the coin with Chelsea, a win gives them some top 4 breathing room from Arsenal. With Manchester United surging, Chelsea needs to secure all of the points they can to assure they don’t go back-to-back years outside of the Champions League.
|Arsenal Odds to Win||Odds to Draw||Chelsea Odds to Win|
Both FiveThirtyEight and the odds-makers see this as a tight match-up with razor-thin margin for error. Arsenal at home is a dog around +200, with Chelsea priced at +130. A draw is +260. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s projections, there’s some value on Arsenal at these odds. FiveThirtyEight projects Arsenal at 36% to win, Chelsea at 37%. Arsenal at +200 would have some value here.
Real Madrid vs. Sevilla
With Manchester United seemingly straightened out, Real Madrid now takes the mantle as the world’s most dysfunctional club.
|Real Madrid Odds to Win||Odds to Draw||Chelsea Odds to Win|
Despite both clubs being even at third in La Liga table, Los Blancos are a heavy home favorite at -145. FiveThirtyEight projects them at 54% to win vs. 24% for Sevilla. Madrid’s recent form doesn’t inspire confidence, so perhaps the +310 draw carries the most value.
Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig
BVB’s impressive top-table run continues, with a critical match against fourth place RB Leipzig.
|RB Leipzig Odds to Win||Odds to Draw||BVB Odds to Win|
FiveThirtyEight gives both teams a 37% chance to win. This one is all about a gut feel. If BVB really intends to capture the Bundesliga, winning games like this is a must. The +145 isn’t a terrible price given how dominant they’ve been in Germany all year. They’re +12 goal differential compared to Leipzig, and are much more proficient offensively.