European Soccer Weekend Betting Preview: Arsenal vs. Chelsea; Real Madrid vs. Sevilla; RB Leipzig vs. BVB

Chops January 17, 2019 257 Reads

European soccer’s Saturday slate of games features a few top four fixtures.

In the Premier League, Chelsea visits Unai Emery’s suddenly sliding Chelsea. In Spain, Sevilla goes to Real Madrid in a battle for third in La Liga. And in Germany, RB Leipzig hope to solidify their top 4 position as Borussia Dortmund comes to visit.

View latest Premier League odds here.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea

This is the Premier League’s most interesting weekend match-up. If Arsenal wants to challenge for a top 4 spot this season, a win here is a must. They currently sit six points off Chelsea for 4th. A strong showing and a win will signal Arsenal is still a factor. A loss, dropping them 9 points from Chelsea (and potentially 10 from Tottenham) likely ends all hope for Gunners fans of a 2019-20 Champions League appearance.

On the other side of the coin with Chelsea, a win gives them some top 4 breathing room from Arsenal. With Manchester United surging, Chelsea needs to secure all of the points they can to assure they don’t go back-to-back years outside of the Champions League.

Arsenal Odds to Win Odds to Draw Chelsea Odds to Win
+200 +260 +130

Both FiveThirtyEight and the odds-makers see this as a tight match-up with razor-thin margin for error. Arsenal at home is a dog around +200, with Chelsea priced at +130. A draw is +260. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s projections, there’s some value on Arsenal at these odds. FiveThirtyEight projects Arsenal at 36% to win, Chelsea at 37%. Arsenal at +200 would have some value here.

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla

With Manchester United seemingly straightened out, Real Madrid now takes the mantle as the world’s most dysfunctional club.

Real Madrid Odds to Win Odds to Draw Chelsea Odds to Win
-145 +310 +340

Despite both clubs being even at third in La Liga table, Los Blancos are a heavy home favorite at -145. FiveThirtyEight projects them at 54% to win vs. 24% for Sevilla. Madrid’s recent form doesn’t inspire confidence, so perhaps the +310 draw carries the most value.

Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig

BVB’s impressive top-table run continues, with a critical match against fourth place RB Leipzig.

RB Leipzig Odds to Win Odds to Draw BVB Odds to Win
+165 +250 +145

FiveThirtyEight gives both teams a 37% chance to win. This one is all about a gut feel. If BVB really intends to capture the Bundesliga, winning games like this is a must. The +145 isn’t a terrible price given how dominant they’ve been in Germany all year. They’re +12 goal differential compared to Leipzig, and are much more proficient offensively.

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