Fulham Relegated Almost as Quickly as Huddersfield: Will Cardiff, Burnley, or Southampton Join Them?

Posted By Chops on April 3, 2019

The race for Premier League relegation is providing way less intrigue than Liverpool and Manchester City‘s battle for supremacy.

After getting drubbed 4-1 by TURN DOWN FOR WATFORD, Fulham finds themselves relegated down to the Championship. Last relegated after the 2013-14 season, Fulham get sent back down after only one season in England’s top division.

The relegation is particularly depressing for Fulham, who spent £100m last summer to bolster their roster (second only to Liverpool and Chelsea!). All of the money spent on attacking players like Aleksandar Mitrovic and
Jean Michaël Seri only produced 30 goals. Worse, their defense is historically bad, ceding 76 (!!!) goals. The next closest teams have given up 59. Their -46 goal differential is five worse than record-setting demotee Huddersfield Town.

Who else is getting relegated?

The race for relegation really comes down to three teams: Cardiff City (28 points), Burnley (30 points), and Southampton (30 points).

FiveThirtyEight projects Cardiff City as the most likely victim at a 71% probability of relegation. Burnley (20%) and Southampton (5%) are far behind.

Betting markets have taken relegation futures off the board for now, but had Cardiff City as the most likely as well (we’ll update odds once / if reposted).

Given how goal differntial is usually a better indicator to overall team quality, Cardiff seems like the safest bet to join the Championship. Their -39 outpaces Burnley (-28) and Southampton (-17).

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Chops is the executive producer of High Press Soccer. He's an unabashed Liverpool fan who will absolutely let that bias seep into his reporting and analysis.

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