The final day of Champions League group play has a good combo of utterly high-stakes and totally meaningless games.
We’re focusing on the high-stakes affairs and games of good value here.
There are a few match-ups with soft lines considering one squad has something to play for and the other does not. And then there are a few matches with everything on the line.
2019-20 UEFA Champions League Group Matchday 6 Lines
|Red Bull Salzburg +300||Draw +320||Liverpool -125|
|Napoli -590||Draw +650||Genk +1700|
|Inter -182||Draw +375||Barcelona +425|
|Ajax -159||Draw +340||Valencia +390|
|Borussia Dortmund -360||Draw +450||Slavia Prague +1050|
|Chelsea -500||Draw +575||Lille +1400|
|Lyon +155||Draw +255||RB Leipzig +270|
|Benfica +107||Draw +250||Zenit +255|
|Dinamo Zagreb +260||Draw +330||Man City -115|
|Shakhtar Donetsk +155||Draw +275||Atalanta +160|
|Bayer Leverkusen +100||Draw +275||Juventus +255|
While we give 538 plenty of grief for their [algorithm’s] love affair with Man City and Bayern Munich, their probabilities often closely align with oddsmakers. So it’s good to use the following as a point of reference when evaluating potentially vulnerable lines.
Odds & Ends
- One of the best bets on the board is Bayer Leverkusen at even-money +100. Even if Juventus were playing their A-team, Bayer is a probability favorite to win. But Juve is trotting out the B-team most likely, and Bayer has an outside shot at advancing if Atleti slips.
- Liverpool announced Dejan Lovren and Gini Wijnaldum will be fit and available for this match. Their line has already moved from -118 to -125. It could go to -150 by game time. Expect the Reds to win a nervy affair.
- Ajax at home at -159 with something to play for? Sign us up, please.
- Looking for a potential upset pick? While Man City’s B team would likely finish top 6 in the EPL, it’s never easy traveling to Crotia to play a team with nothing to lose. Expect Dinamo Zagreb to give City all they can handle and maybe pull a stunner at +260.
- While Zenit St. Petersburg has to travel to Portugal to play Benfica, they will still advance with a win. They’ve heard plenty about not being a deserving Pot 1 team. Their +255 is a good price for a team with something to prove.
- Finally, Inter Milan has everything to play for and Barcelona is rolling out their B-team. Messi has already been ruled out. Have you seen Barca without Messi? Not good. While a bottling is absolutely possible with Inter, that -182 is good value.