Who: Manchester United vs Liverpool
When: Sunday, October 20th @ 11:30am ET
Line: Manchester United +340 | Draw +310 | Liverpool -137
If United get smashed, is Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s job in jeopardy? Can Liverpool tie the Premier League record for most consecutive wins? Will Harry Maguire ball up in a fetal position while deeply sobbing over his knucklehead decision to leave Leicester for Man U?
Despite the massive disparity in talent, I don’t expect Manchester United to come out flat. This games means a lot to them. OGS has the entire international break to get their tactics right and implement a strategy. Liverpool have shown casualness lately that can be exploited.
This will be fight.
Manchester United vs Liverpool Preview
First, let’s start with this: a lot has been made of Manchester United’s xG and xPTS this season. Here’s the EPL table adjusted by xPTS:
Manchester United have been soooo unlucky, amirite? And boy, Liverpool sure do have a horseshoe up their ass, don’t they!
No. Not necessarily.
Liverpool have elite finishers. Manchester United do not. Hence the over and under performing xGs, holmes.
Part of United’s scoring issues revolve around their shot selection. They’re the anti-Red Bull Salzburg. They’re not creating easy chances within the 18 yard box.
Throwing out the anomaly of their first match against Chelsea, Man U’s most similar opponents to Liverpool this season have been Arsenal (1-1 draw) and Leicester (1-0 win).
Against Arsenal, they took 3 shots from within 18 yards. Against Leicester, they had 4 from within 18. One of those was from the spot, which Marcus Rashford converted for the win.
Liverpool’s shot charts…look…much…different.
Occasionally, Scott McTominay creates a moment of brilliance and scores from outside the 18. More often though, Scott McTominay doesn’t get a shot on target.
Liverpool dribble into the attacking third more. They complete more passes in the attacking third. And they finish more of those chances.
Sometimes, it’s not any more complicated than that.
Manchester United will put up a fight. Could even see them rallied by a boisterous Old Trafford crowd and scoring the first goal of the game. But as soon as Liverpool scores, the crowd, the players, and OGS’ sphincter will tighten. Liverpool will come away with a 3-1 type win and tie Manchester City’s consecutive win streak of 18 matches.