Everton was supposed to be this year’s Leicester City. Most pundits, including ours, expected the Toffees to be a potential Big 6 party crasher.
Instead, they’ve crashed and burned.
Everton sit one spot above the relegation line. At 14 points, they’re only 2 up on 18th place Southampton. Their crushing loss to Leicester today was the perfect encapsulation of Everton’s season wrapped up in 90 minutes. Things are not going well at Goodison Park.
But…Everton’s advanced stats are actually pretty good
One one hand, Everton’s -8 goal differential is every bit the numbers of a relegation candidate. Only four teams have a worse gd.
While xG / xGA has its flaws, it does indicate that Everton are seriously unlucky. As in the unluckiest team in the Premier League.
Their xG is almost 6 goals off of what they should have. Their xGA shows they’ve given up almost 5 more than expected. With better finishing and luck, they could be 7th in the table.
But they’re not. And often don’t look the sum or their parts. And Marco Silva will be sacked. Like with Unai Emery, it’s more a matter of “when,” not “if.”
The timing of Everton’s Merseyside derby vs Liverpool may actually keep Silva in his post for the week. A Monday sacking ahead of what Everton would likely consider their most important match of the season is a ballsy move.
Also, if you’re management, a shellacking at Anfield helps justify a sacking. Or on the other hand, a strong showing helps validate the public faith in Silva that they’ve recently expressed.
Next permanent Everton manager odds
Many of the usual suspects for all meaningful posts appear yet again. Here are accumulated odds from a number of sites.
|Who replaces Marco Silva?|
|David Moyes -115|
|Eddie Howe +250|
|Rafa Benitez +800|
|Mark Hughes +1400|
|Mikel Arteta +1600|
|Mauricio Pochettino +1600|
As we’ve written before, if you can make Rafa Benitez happen, you make that happen. Why he can’t land a top club gig makes no sense. His work at Newcastle was a classic case of making chicken salad out of chicken shit. He’d immediately get the Toffees climbing the table.