Merseyside Massacre: Don’t Worry, Everton, You Won’t Actually Be Relegated (Probably)

Posted By High Press 10 on December 5, 2019 - Last Updated on February 21, 2020


Everton received a paddling at Anfield on Wednesday. Liverpool demolished the Toffees 5-2.

The game might’ve been the final time Marco Silva manages the squad. With Southampton defeating Norwich City earlier in the day, the Saints have moved past Everton in the table. Everton now site 18th, firmly in the relegation zone.

How bad has it gotten for Everton? Watch the highlights. Liverpool rotated in 5 players and nuked their Merseyside rivals.

Now, some perspective…

Everton will have a new manager, possibly by Thursday and almost definitely after they lose to Chelsea this weekend. We’ll say the same thing about Marco Silva as we did about Unai Emery: he’s not a bad manager, but he’s not the right fit for this team and clearly has lost the squad.

Once Everton move on, you’ll see that standard post-sacking bump almost all squads realize. And you’ll see some regression to the mean in the one area that Everton is very unlucky: goals conceded.

After Wednesday’s Merseyside Massacre, Everton have the widest gap between GA and xGA (-7.44) in the Premier League.

Additionally, probability models like 538 still expect them to finish as a mid-table team, right around 11th place.

After Liverpool, Leicester, third-place Manchester City who are 11 behind first, and Chelsea, the drop off in quality is steeeeep. There’s a lot of clustering in the middle, and just a couple of good results would shoot Everton right back to being bang average.

Oddsmakers view Everton as relegation long-shots

Despite being in 18th today, oddsmakers don’t view Everton as a bottom 3 team tomorrow. In fact, they have the 10th likeliest odds for relegation on DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Norwich -400
  • Watford -305
  • Southampton +250
  • Aston Villa +275
  • Newcastle +275
  • West Ham +400
  • Bournemouth +450
  • Brighton +500
  • Burnley +700
  • Everton +800

Yes, Everton were supposed to challenge for a top 6 spot. They’re a club making heaps of revenue with one of the 7 most expensive EPL rosters. Clubs with that kind of a roster don’t get relegated. It’d be practically unprecedented.

There are brighter days ahead for the Toffees. Challenging for a top 6 spot this season is out of the question. But going down to the Championship is too…probably.

 

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High Press 10 covers general global soccer stories and news. He / she finds the quality of soccer in Bend It Like Beckham to be on par with u8 rec.

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