Premier League 21/22 Season Betting Preview: Who Can Win The Golden Boot?

Posted By Alex Blowers on August 9, 2021

We are days away from the new Premier League season kicking off, and one of the biggest betting markets available is who will win the Golden Boot?

Legends of the Premier League like Alan Shearer, Thierry Henry, Didier Drogba, Robin Van Persie, Carlos Tevez, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Sergio Agüero, and Luis Suárez have built their reputations from winning the award and competition will be fierce this season.

Here is my Golden Boot breakdown of the top 11 players offered by DraftKings.

Premier League Golden Boot, Betting, Top Goalscorer, Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah, Aubameyang, Sadio Mané

2020/21 SEASON SCORING STATS

Player NameGoalsGamesAverage Shots Per GameAverage Minutes Per GameAverage Goals Per GameAverage Minutes Per GoalAverage Shots Per GoalShot Conversion Rate
Harry Kane23353.9880.65133.95.916.84%
Mohamed Salah22373.4830.64139.55.217.48%
Timo Werner6352.3740.17431.613.47.45%
Pierre-Americk Aubameyang10292810.34234.95.817.24%
Raheem Sterling10312.3820.32254.27.114.02%
Gabriel Jesus9291.9710.31228.76.116.33%
Patrick Bamford17382.8810.441816.215.97%
Sadio Mané11352.7800.31254.58.511.64%
Bruno Fernandes18373.3840.48172.66.714.74%
Jamie Vardy15342.4840.44190.45.418.38%
Ollie Watkins14372.6900.37237.86.814.55%

HARRY KANE GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +300

Harry Kane is easily the best striker in the Premier League and is guaranteed to score goals. With a potential move to Manchester City, reports of him failing to report for training, and starting every game for England at Euro 2020, I think there’s too much uncertainty to back him.

Verdict: Avoid

MOHAMED SALAH GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +400

Despite Liverpool‘s injury troubles and struggles last season Mohamed Salah still managed to bag 22 goals.

With Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez, and Jöel Matip back from injury, Ibrahima Konaté signed, Thiago settled, and Jordan Henderson and Fabinho able to return to central midfield Liverpool are back to full strength.

Back Salah to spearhead Liverpool’s title challenge and win his third Golden Boot.

Verdict: Best Option

TIMO WERNER GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +1600

I rate Timo Werner very highly, believe he will come good for Chelsea, and would be one of my tips if Romelu Lukaku wasn’t heavily linked with a return to the club. Throughout his career, he has had dry spells (like last season) and purple patches (28 Bundesliga goals in 2019/20).

If Lukaku’s transfer goes through, I think Thomas Tuchel will go with a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation and push Werner out to the LW or RW role where he will be competing with Hakim Ziyech, Christian Pulišić, Kai Havertz, Mason Mount, and Callum Hudson-Odoi.

Verdict: Avoid If Romelu Lukaku Signs

PIERRE-EMERICK AUBAMEYANG GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +1800

At +1800 I think Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang represents the best value and here’s why.

The Gabonese international was one of the best strikers in the Premier League 2018/19 and 2019/20 scoring 22 goals in both seasons. Arsenal have strengthened this summer with Ben White, Albert Sambi Lokonga, and Nuno Taveres and tied down Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe with long-term deals.

He was poor last season but caught malaria and allegedly fell out with Mikel Arteta after getting stuck in traffic and turning up late for the North London derby. Finally, Arsenal don’t have European football, which lightens their schedule and allows them to focus on the Premier League.

Verdict: Best Value

RAHEEM STERLING GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +2000

Raheem Sterling had a good summer at the Euro’s, but that doesn’t guarantee him a starting place in Pep Guardiola‘s first eleven. With Jack Grealish joining the club for a record $139 million fee and competition from Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden, Gabriel Jesus (if he stays), and Ferrán Torres it’s possible we could see his playing time-restricted.

If City manages to sign Harry Kane, it will be even more difficult to put your trust in him.

Verdict: Avoid

GABRIEL JESUS GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +2000

With Sergio Agüero leaving the club, this was supposed to be Jesus’s time to step up and take over his mantle. Recent reports claim City will sell him to fund a deal for Kane, and if the Brazilian stays, Guardiola will use him as a backup.

Verdict: Avoid

PATRICK BAMFORD GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +2000

Last season, Patrick Bamford had the best league campaign of his career, scoring 17 goals in 38 appearances, with 37 of those as a starter. 9 of those goals came in the opening 13 games when Leeds United took everyone by surprise, meaning he only scored 8 in the following 25 appearances.

With clubs wiser to Marcelo Bielsa‘s tactics, it’s safe to say Bamford probably won’t be at the top of the goalscoring charts come May.

Verdict: Avoid

SADIO MANÉ GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +2200

If you think Liverpool are going to hit the heights of 2018-2020 Sadio Mané is worth considering. He shared the Golden Boot with Salah and Aubameyang in 2018/19 when all three finished on 22 goals. The following season he scored 18 meaning he got 40 goals in 71 appearances when Jurgen Klopp’s side was at their peak.

Verdict: Longshot

BRUNO FERNANDES GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +2500

In 18 months Bruno Fernandes has 26 goals in 51 Premier League appearances which work out to around a goal every two games. If he plays every game this season and continues to score at that rate he will finish with 19 goals and the last time someone won the Golden Boot with that amount was Nicolas Anelka in 2008/09.

Keep in mind that 13 of them have come from the penalty spot and one was a freekick so he’s only managed to score 12 goals in open play.

Verdict: Avoid

JAMIE VARDY GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +2500

The 2019/20 Golden Boot winner Jamie Vardy keeps himself in incredible shape but at 34-years-old it’s unrealistic to expect him to play week in week out. Last season he only started 31 games and with the emergence of Kelechi Iheanacho, the signing of Patson Daka, Ayoze Pérez, and Europa League football I expect Brendan Rogers to rotate him this season.

Verdict: Avoid

OLLIE WATKINS GOLDEN BOOT ODDS +2500

I would avoid Ollie Watkins after Aston Villa signed Danny Ings. Early reports claim Dean Smith will go with a 4-2-3-1 formation and move Watkins to the LW/LF role. He hobbled off in Aston Villa’s final pre-season game against Salernitana with a suspected thigh muscle injury so it’s likely he will miss the start of the season.

Verdict: Avoid

GOLDEN BOOT WINNER SUMMARY

Best Option: Mohamed Salah +400
Best Value: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang +1800
Longshot: Sadio Mané +2200

WHERE TO BET THE PREMIER LEAGUE IN THE US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in more than two dozen states. You can bet online in some states, but only in-person betting is allowed in most of them.

DraftKings Sportsbook is available in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.

FanDuel Sportsbook is available in Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.

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Alex Blowers

Betting advice for the Premier League, Bundesliga & Serie A! Twitter - @AlexJBlowers

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