Premier League Betting 21/22: Aston Villa vs Chelsea Betting Preview

Written By Alex Blowers on December 23, 2021 - Last Updated on December 27, 2021

One of my favorite days of the year is Boxing Day, and we have a stellar fixture between Aston Villa and Chelsea to look forward to.

Steven Gerrard has made an impressive start to life at Villa Park, winning four and losing two. He’ll be hoping the Covid outbreak that caused their game against Burnley to be postponed won’t derail their momentum.

Chelsea have struggled in recent weeks, dropping nine points and losing pace with league leaders Manchester City. This is the worse run of form the club has suffered since Thomas Tuchel took over, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the situation.

Premier League Betting: Aston Villa vs Chelsea Betting Preview

The game is scheduled to kick off Sunday at 12:30 PM EST and will be shown live on NBC and Telemundo.

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Premier League Betting: Aston Villa vs Chelsea Betting Preview


CompetitionOpponentHome/AwayGoals ForGoals AgainstTotal GoalsxG ForxG AgainstTotal xGxG Difference
Premier LeagueCrystal PalaceAway2130.40.91.3-0.5
Premier LeagueManchester CityHome1230.
Premier LeagueLeicester CityHome2132.01.43.4+0.6
Premier LeagueLiverpoolAway0110.42.52.9-2.1
Premier LeagueNorwich CityAway2021.70.52.2+1.2
Total / Average7 / 1.45 / 112 / 2.45.4 / 1.086.2 / 1.2411.6 / 2.32-0.8 / -0.16

Stats taken from FBREF

Premier League Betting: Aston Villa vs Chelsea Betting Preview

Out: Leon Bailey (Quadricep), Marvelous Nakamba (Groin), Bertrand Traore (Thigh)
Doubtful: Morgan Sanson (Covid), Keinan Davis (Covid), Anwar El Ghazi (Covid), Jed Steer (Covid), Ashley Young (Unspecified)
Suspended: None
Coach: Steven Gerrard

Gerrard is paying for the actions of the previous regime. In Round 2 of the Carabao Cup, Dean Smith played several youth players against League Two side, Barrow. The Premier League classes them as having first-team experience, meaning in their eyes, Villa have enough players available to fulfill fixtures.

In the pre-match press conference for this game, Gerrard said, “If you’re asking for any team news or what my thoughts are on the team then you’re wasting your time because I don’t even know myself.”

“It’s an ongoing situation and we’ve still got three rounds of testing to go before the game – three lateral flows and a PCR test to come as well.

Gerrard added: “Right now the game, from our point of view, is 100 percent going ahead. The rules of the Premier League is that if you have 13 fit and available players the game goes ahead.

“What I am saying to you is that there’s still three or four days to go and you know and I know that things are changing by the hour. Expect things to change.”

It’s nearly impossible to predict who will start, so with it being Christmas and the season of goodwill, I’ve decided to be overly optimistic with my lineup prediction.


CompetitionOpponentHome/AwayGoals ForGoals AgainstTotal GoalsxG ForxG AgainstTotal xGxG Difference
Premier LeagueWest HamAway2351.21.83.0-0.6
UEFA Champions LeagueZenit St. PetersburgAway3362.92.15.0+0.8
Premier LeagueLeeds UnitedHome3252.81.44.2+1.4
Premier LeagueEvertonHome1122.70.43.1+2.3
Premier LeagueWolvesAway0000.80.31.1+0.5
Total / Average Per Game9 / 1.89 / 1.818 / 3.610.4 / 2.086.0 / 1.216.4 / 3.28+4.4 / +0.88

Stats taken from FBREF

Premier League Betting: Aston Villa vs Chelsea Betting Preview

Out: None
Doubtful: Romelu Lukakau (Covid), Callum Hudson-Odoi (Covid), Ben Chilwell (Covid), Timo Werner (Covid), Lewis Baker (Covid), Kai Havertz (Illness), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Knock), Hakim Ziyech (Calf), Andrea Christensen (Knock)
Suspended: None
Coach: Thomas Tuchel

You could argue that Chelsea’s dip in form is directly related to Mateo Kovačić, Jorginho, and N’Golo Kante’s recent injury struggles. These three are the club’s best central midfielders, and the last time two of them started a game together was the 4-0 win over Juventus on November 23rd. Since that match, Chelsea have won three, drawn four, and lost one.

The good news is all three featured in the 2-0 win over Brentford in the Carabao Cup midweek, and I think it will be Jorginho and Kanté who start.

If Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku don’t recover from Covid in time, we will see Christian Pulišić continuing to lead the line with Mason Mount behind. Ross Barkley will join them if Kai Havertz, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, or Hakim Ziyech remain unavailable.

I’m confident Tuchel will stick with his back three and select Antonio Rüdiger, Thiago Silva, and Travoh Chalobah. Ben Chilwell’s injury means Marcos Alonso will play at left wing-back with Reece James on the opposite flank.


Both teams are missing key players due to Covid. However, the UK Government announced changes to the self-isolation rules. You will now be able to end quarantine after seven days instead of 10 by providing negative lateral flow results on day six and day seven. Potentially this rule change could end isolation early for some players, but it’s impossible to know who will benefit.

We know Kanté, Jorginho, and Kovačić are back, which is a massive boost for Chelsea’s chances in this game.

I’m going to back Tuchel’s side to get back to winning ways and add Over 1.5 Goals to boost up the odds. Aston Villa’s last five games have averaged a total of 2.4 goals, and Chelsea’s have averaged 3.6, so we should see at least two goals.

PREMIER LEAGUE BETTING TIPS: Parlay Chelsea To Win and Over 1.5 Goals +120


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Alex Blowers

Betting advice for the Premier League, Bundesliga & UEFA Champions League! Alex also contributes to NBC Sports Edge and TheLines. You can follow him on Twitter @AlexJBlowers

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