This weekend’s marquee Premier League fixture sees leaders Manchester City host Top 4 contenders Tottenham. The hosts are coming off a perfect performance in the UEFA Champions League, beating Sporting CP 5-0. That result all but confirmed Pep Guardiola‘s side’s advancement to the Quarterfinals allowing them to switch focus back to the Premier League.
Tottenham didn’t play midweek, but Antonio Conte still managed to grab the headlines. He gave an honest assessment of the club’s January transfer business, and I agree with everything.
“We lost four players in January. Four important players for Tottenham, and we brought in only two.”
“It is inevitable that if you want to grow quicker and if you want to be competitive more rapidly, you need players with a lot of experience, because they also raise the experience level of the overall team,” Conte said.
He’s managing expectations and being truthful about Tottenham’s ability to compete with the clubs above them when they adopt this transfer policy.
The game is scheduled to kick off Saturday at 12:30 PM EST and will be shown live on NBC.
You can always hit me up on Twitter @AlexJBlowers for advice, your picks, and thoughts on what’s happening in the world of soccer.
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PREMIER LEAGUE GUIDES
How To Bet The Premier League In The US
How To Stream The Premier League In The US
Premier League Best and Worse Kits
MANCHESTER CITY VS TOTTENHAM PREMIER LEAGUE BETTING ODDS
*Odds Taken from DraftKings Friday, February 18th, 3:05 AM EST
MANCHESTER CITY
| Competition | Opponent | Home/Away | Goals For | Goals Against | Total Goals | xG For | xG Against | Total xG | xG Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | Southampton | Away | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| FA Cup | Fulham | Home | 4 | 1 | 5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Premier League | Brentford | Away | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
| Premier League | Norwich City | Home | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 4.9 | +3.9 |
| UCL | Sporting CP | Away | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.9 | +1.7 |
| Total / Average Per Game | 16 / 3.2 | 2 / 0.4 | 18 / 3.6 | 9.7 / 2.42 | 2.3 / 0.57 | 12.0 / 3.0 | +7.4 / +1.85 |
Stats taken from FBREF
Out: Cole Palmer (Foot)
Doubtful: Gabriel Jesus (Muscular), Jack Grealish (Shin)
Suspended: Benjamin Mendy (Police Investigation)
Coach: Pep Guardiola
We could see Jack Grealish and Gabriel Jesus on the bench if they pass late fitness tests.
John Stones is expected to drop out of the starting XI for the first-choice right-back Kyle Walker. The former Tottenham player was suspended for the midweek victory over Sporting CP.
If Guardiola decides to rotate, we could see ilkay Gündogan, Fernandinho, and Oleksander Zinchenko come into the starting lineup.
TOTTENHAM
| Competition | Opponent | Home/Away | Goals For | Goals Against | Total Goals | xG For | xG Against | Total xG | xG Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | Leicester City | Away | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 5.2 | +2.2 |
| Premier League | Chelsea | Away | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | -0.5 |
| FA Cup | Brighton | Home | 3 | 1 | 4 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Premier League | Southampton | Home | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| Premier League | Wolves | Home | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.9 | +0.3 |
| Total / Average Per Game | 8 / 1.6 | 10 / 2 | 18 / 3.6 | 7.2 / 1.8 | 6.3 / 1.57 | 13.5 / 3.37 | +0.9 / +0.22 |
Stats taken from FBREF
Out: Japhet Tanganga (Knee)
Doubtful: Eric Dier (Thigh), Oliver Skipp (Groin)
Suspended: None
Coach: Antonio Conte
Matt Doherty and Ryan Sessegnon will drop to the bench for first-choice wing-backs Sergio Reguilón and Emerson Royal. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg will come into midfield alongside January signing Rodrigo Bentancur.
I think they will be the only changes Antonio Conte makes to the starting XI that lost 2-0 to Wolves last weekend. They outperformed their opponents 1.6 to 1.3 xG’s but were let down by poor goalkeeping from Hugo Lloris.
Eric Dier has returned to first-team training and could make the bench. Loan signing Dejan Kulusevski made an impact from the bench last weekend, and we’ll see Conte introduce him at some point.
MANCHESTER CITY VS TOTTENHAM PREMIER LEAGUE BETTING TIPS
It’s pretty wild to see Manchester City so heavily favored against a team from the Big Six who have one of the world’s best managers in Antonio Conte. Recently, I’ve been successful with Same Game Parlay’s, and I think that’s the way to go here to find value.
Looking at the options, I like Manchester to score early and be leading at half-time and full-time. These two have averaged 3.6 total goals in their last five fixtures, making Over 1.5 a pretty safe bet. If you want better value, you can go with Over 2.5, which increases the odds to +130.
PREMIER LEAGUE BETTING TIPS: Same Game Parlay Over 1.5 Goals and Halftime / Fulltime Manchester City / Manchester City -110
WHERE TO BET PREMIER LEAGUE IN THE US
In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in more than two dozen states. You can bet online in some states, but only in-person betting is allowed in most of them.
DraftKings Sportsbook is available in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.
FanDuel Sportsbook is available in Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.
