Premier League Manager Sack Race: Who’s Next To Go?

Written By Alex Blowers on October 25, 2021

We’re nine games into the season, and already two managers have been relieved from their duties.

Despite a solid start, picking up seven points in seven games, Watford pulled the trigger on Xisco. The club are known for regularly rotating their managers. Still, this sacking came as a bit of a surprise, and everyone’s favorite Italian manager Claudio Ranieri was named his successor.

Steve Bruce was the second manager to leave after reaching a ‘mutual agreement’ this week with Newcastle‘s new Saudi-backed owners. Fair play to the new regime for letting Bruce go with dignity rather than firing him. His time at the club was over the moment the Premier League gave the green light on the $420 million take over.

Let’s take a look at the Premier League Manager Sack Race Odds.

PREMIER LEAGUE MANAGER SACK RACE ODDS

TEAMMANAGERAPPOINTEDLEAGUE POSITIONRECENT EPL FORMODDS
Manchester UnitedOle Gunnar Solskjaer19th December 20187thLLDLW+225
Norwich CityDaniel Farke25th May 201720thLDDLL+300
WatfordClaudio Ranieri4th October 202114thWLLDW+550
TottenhamNuno Espírito Santo30th June 20216thLWWLL+1100
SouthamptonRalph Hasenhüttl12th May 201816thDWLLD+1200
ArsenalMikel Arteta21st December 201910thWDDWW+1200
WolvesBruno Lage9th June 202111thDWWWL+1400
Leicester CityBrendan Rodgers26th February 20199thWWDDL+1600
Aston VillaDean Smith10th October 201813thLLLWW+1600
Leeds UnitedMarcelo Bielsa15th June 201817thDLWLD+2000
Crystal PalacePatrick Vieira4th July 202115thDDDDL+2000
EvertonRafa Benítez30th June 20218thLLDWL+2000
BurnleySean Dyche30th October 201218thDLDDL+2200
BrightonGraham Potter20th May 20195thLDDDW+2200
West HamDavid Moyes29th December 20194thWWLWL+4000
BrentfordThomas Frank16th October 201812thLWDWL+4000
Manchester CityPep Guardiola1st July 20213rdWWDWD+4000
ChelseaThomas Tuchel26th January 20211stWWWLW+5000
LiverpoolJürgen Klopp8th October 20152ndWWDDW+6600
NewcastleVacantN/A19thDLLDDN/A

*Odds taken from BettingOdds.com October 24th, 5PM EST

Let’s identify who isn’t going to lose their job any time soon:

  • If Jürgen Klopp, Thomas Tuchel, Pep Guardiola, Brendan Rodgers, or David Moyes are next to go, it will be from the fallout of a massive boardroom bust-up and not performances on the pitch.
  • Rafa Benítez, Patrick Vieira, and Bruno Lage have started well at their new clubs and will be given time.
  • I don’ think any manager at Watford will ever be safe, but Ranieri has just inspired them to a 5-2 win over Everton, and the owners will give him time.
  • This season, Brentford has been a breath of fresh air, beating Arsenal and West Ham, drawing 3-3 with Liverpool, and dominating Chelsea in their 1-0 defeat. Those performances have earned Thomas Frank a lot of credit in the bank, and their form will have to nosedive for him to get fired.
  • Brighton made a brave decision appointing Graham Potter. He has paid them back in full, turning them from a defensive, counter-attacking team into a possession-based side that plays attractive football and can build from the back. The Seagulls are sitting in 4th, and Potter’s departure will be for a bigger club, but I don’t think he will walk out on the club midway through the season.
  • Sean Dyche is the foundation of Burnley‘s recent Premier League status. No matter how bad it gets, the board will stick by him because there’s no one out there who can do a better job with the resources and players available.
  • Leeds United haven’t started well this season, but Marcelo Bielsa‘s job is safe after transforming the club into one of the most entertaining sides in the country and improving all the players.
  • Ralph Hasenhüttl has survived two 9-0 defeats; it’s difficult to know it will take for him to be sacked. His side are four points clear of the relegation zone, and his job won’t be under threat until Southampton drop into the bottom three.

That leaves us with four managers I think are in trouble:

OLE GUNNAR SOLSKJAER

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer should be fired after United’s car-crash performance against Liverpool. There were no positives to take from the game, the fans booed, and the players lost their discipline, with six getting booked and Paul Pogba sent off.

Ole’s situation with the Glazers is similar to the one Steve Bruce had with Mike Ashley. He’s a divisive manager diverting a lot of criticism away from Manchester United‘s owners, who are more interested in profits than winning trophies. Ole does have a good working relationship with everyone at the club and doesn’t speak out or cause too many problems. Can you imagine the uproar Antonio Conte would cause if he came in? He would sort out the team, but he would upset the apple cart while doing it.

As long as United remains in contention for the Top 4 and that UEFA Champions League TV money, Ole will be safe. He will get more time to turn things around, but with fixtures against Tottenham, Manchester City, Watford, Chelsea, and Arsenal up next, his position could be untenable very soon. However, he has been in this situation several times during his three years at the club and has a knack for pulling out a big result to steady the ship.

DANIEL FARKE

Norwich City are rock bottom of the league on two points, no wins, two goals scored, and 23 conceded. At any other club, Daniel Farke would probably be fired by now, but The Canaries do things differently. They have a long-term plan to become a self-sustaining entity with no outside investment and improve the club’s infrastructure.

They recently revealed the next stage of development at the club’s Lotus Training Centre with plans for a recovery hub, administration, and media facility. The club accepts relegation, and promotion will happen, and it’s important to have stability throughout the process. The board believes Farke is the right man for the job and handed him a new four-year deal in the summer, tieing him down till 2025.

NUNO ESPÍRITO SANTO

I worry for Nuno Espírito Santo‘s future because he wasn’t Tottenham’s first choice to succeed José Mourinho. He was more like the 11th choice after multiple candidates turned the club down in the summer.

Spurs started the season brilliantly, winning their opening three games, and Santo was awarded the Premier League’s Manager of the Month for August. Fast forward to the end of September, and three defeats in a row, including a 3-1 loss to bitter rivals Arsenal, raised serious doubts about his future at the club.

He has turned things around in October, winning two Premier League fixtures, but his second-string side suffered a defeat to Vitesse in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Failure to advance to the knockout stages will be embarrassing for the club.

Tottenham sees Nuno as a stopgap and will sack him if a better manager becomes available or has a bad run of results. With Manchester United, Everton, Leeds United, Burnley, and Brentford up next, he could be gone by early December.

DEAN SMITH

He has done a brilliant job at Aston Villa, getting them into the Premier League, keeping them up, and guiding them to 11th place last season. The owners backed him in the transfer market this summer, spending $110 million on new players after talisman Jack Grealish left.

Nine games into the season, they’re sitting in 13th on 10 points and have lost their last three games. Matchday 08’s 3-2 defeat against local rivals Wolves will hurt for a long time with Villa 2-0 up after 80 minutes.

West Ham, Southampton, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Manchester City, Leicester City, and Liverpool are next. If they continue this terrible form, there’s a good chance we will see him replaced by Christmas.

PREMIER LEAGUE MANAGER SACK RACE BETTING TIPS

I think Norwich wants to stick with Farke, but his position is close to becoming untenable. Two goals scored in nine games is pitiful, and Chelsea just smashed them 7-0. If their poor form continues against Leeds, Brentford, Southampton, Wolves, and Newcastle, I think he goes.

Farke must be wondering if he’s taken the club as far as he can. Despite their terrible start, his stock remains high in the world of management after leading The Canaries to two Championship titles and will have a host of suitors if he becomes available. I’m positive he will return to Germany at some point in his career and try his hand in the Bundesliga. Maybe it’s time for Farke to take on a new challenge.

Looking at the longshots, Dean Smith is excellent value. I think he has taken Aston Villa as far as he can. The owners are ambitious and have spent heavily in the transfer market. They will make a change if results don’t improve soon.

BETTING TIP: Daniel Farke +300
LONGSHOT: Dean Smith +1600

WHERE TO BET PREMIER LEAGUE IN THE US

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Betting advice for the Premier League, Bundesliga & UEFA Champions League! Twitter - @AlexJBlowers

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