Matchday 28 resulted in a 1.98 Unit Loss. It started so well with my Leicester City and Manchester City Money Line Parlay cashing. Arsenal’s contentious penalty robbed Tottenham of the chance of winning, and West Ham was surprisingly poor in their 1-0 defeat against Manchester United.
Hit me up on Twitter @RegistaPicks with your thoughts, who you support, and picks for the week.
BRIGHTON VS NEWCASTLE BETTING TIPS
This is the biggest game of the weekend. A relegation 6 pointer between Brighton and Newcastle. Both sides will be desperate for the win, but neither can afford to lose to one of their rivals in the battle for Premier League survival. The only team from below that can catch them is Fulham, who plays on Friday evening. 3 points for Scott Parker’s side will move them out of the relegation zone and intensify this game even more.
The pressure is mounting on Steve Bruce, and the odds for him being sacked has plummeted back in England after Sheffield United confirmed the departure of Chris Wilder. Eddie Howe, Frank Lampard, Roberto Martínez, Graeme Jones, and the return of Rafa Benítez are all being linked to take over. With Callum Wilson, Allan Saint-Maximin, and Miguel Almirón unavailable through injury, it’s difficult to see where Newcastle’s attacking threat will come from.
Against Aston Villa last weekend, Bruce went with a 4-3-3 formation selecting Joelinton, Ryan Fraser, and Dwight Gayle as the attacking options. They had very little joy until Jacob Murphy and Andy Carroll were introduced from the bench. In the dying moments, Murphy crossed for club captain Jamaal Lascelles to head home a last gasp equalizer in what could be a massive point for Bruce’s men.
Fans are calling for a 4-4-2 formation with Carroll and Joelinton up top and Murphy and Fraser on the wings supplying crosses. The thinking behind it is their physicality and aerial ability could cause problems for Brighton’s Lewis Dunk, Dan Burn, Joël Veltman, and Ben White, who are dominant in the air. If Bruce sticks with the same starting lineup, I think Fraser will struggle to make an impact in the striker role and could find himself looking for his next managerial post by Monday.
POLL: After his second-half performance vs Villa, should Jacob Murphy start for #NUFC at Brighton on Saturday night? ⚫️⚪️⚫️⚪️⬇️— The Chronicle (@ChronicleNUFC) March 16, 2021
Graham Potter is nowhere near being under the same kind of pressure despite only being 2 points better off. The club brought him in to transition the club from a defensive, 11 men behind the ball, negative, counter-attacking side to one that gets the ball down, passes, and plays attractive football. He has delivered on that 10-fold, and it’s been great watching them develop since his appointment in May 2019.
The root cause of Brighton’s struggles this season has been their failure to convert chances. Their Expected Goals (xG) for the season is 45, but they have only scored 29. That is the highest in the league, and if they survive, the club must invest heavily in a striker this summer. Neal Maupay is excellent at leading the line, pressing, and causing defenders issues, but he needs an out-and-out goalscorer beside him.
Despite their goalscoring issues, I can’t look beyond The Seagulls getting a win here. Newcastle has been dire under Bruce, and injuries to his 3 most dangerous attackers leaves him with very little threat in the final third. Brighton’s win over Southampton last weekend will do wonders for their confidence, and they have enough to stay up this year.
FT: #PremierLeague #EPL#SaintsFC 1 (1.08 xG)#BHAFC 2 (0.84 xG)— Infogol (@InfogolApp) March 14, 2021
Brighton pick up a huge three points. Ironically, they lost the xG battle narrowly!#SOUBHA shot map ➡️ https://t.co/fGBNfnl4Ce pic.twitter.com/v6j36gw2Ca
Back Brighton to win in a low-scoring game.
Prediction – 2 Units: Brighton Money Line and Under 3.5 Goals +112 | 1 Unit: Brighton To Win To Nil +150
ASTON VILLA VS TOTTENHAM BETTING TIPS
Tottenham’s season is looking in tatters after they exited the Europa League at the hands of Dynamo Zagreb. The Croatian side won the second leg 3-0 AET (3-2 on aggregate) to stun Spurs, who were the Sports Books favorites to win this competition.
José Mourinho was fuming in the post-match interview questioning his players’ attitude and directing the blame onto them. When things go well for Mourinho, he talks about himself and players as ‘us’ like we saw in his first spell at Chelsea and Inter Milan. When things go bad he separates himself from the players and blames them. We saw this towards the end of his second spell at Chelsea and time at Manchester United.
Mourinho's verdict was brutal. pic.twitter.com/yYAJv2A6qg— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) March 18, 2021
Aston Villa’s form has nosedived since Jack Grealish picked up his shin injury in training days after their 0-0 draw with Brighton. 1 win, 1 draws and 2 defeats have followed. He returned to training on Wednesday, but his exclusion from Gareth Southgate’s latest England squad is a sign he’s probably not ready to start this game.
🚨 England squad has been announced 🚨 pic.twitter.com/H1aQahJQ9y— Football Daily (@footballdaily) March 18, 2021
The key to this game is how the Spurs squad responds to Thursday night’s defeat and Mourinho’s comments. From watching the Amazon All Or Nothing documentary, you could see the players liked and respected their captain Harry Kane. He has gotten to the top of the game by always giving 100%, hard work, dedication, and having a winner’s mentality. This defeat will hurt Kane, and he will respond by inspiring his teammates on and off the pitch to victory.
I’m backing Spurs to get the win.
Prediction – 3 Units: Tottenham Money Line +133 | 1 Unit: Harry Kane To Score Yes +123 | 0.5 Unit: Harry Kane To Score At Least 2 Goals +750
SEASON BETTING RESULTS
TOTAL WINS: 23
TOTAL LOSSES: 40
WIN %: 36.50%
HOW TO BET THE PREMIER LEAGUE IN THE US
In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey, Indiana, and Pennsylvania.