My weekend’s picks got off to a terrible start on Friday night when Manchester City could only beat Newcastle by a 1 goal margin. Pep Guardiola handed Scott Carson his debut and partnered Nathan Aké and Eric Garcia in central defense. That’s all lovely, and everything giving your squad players a runout but have the decency to give us bettors a little warning in your pre-match press conference.
Liverpool also only managed to beat West Brom by 1 goal, but what a goal it was. In the 95th minute, Alisson came up for a corner and headed in the winner at the near post. That sparked wild celebrations from the Liverpool players and keeps their Champions League qualification hopes alive.
As expected, Leeds United turned up for their game against Burnley and eased to a 4-0 victory. There were some great goals in this game, but the highlight for me was Kalvin Phillips’ beautiful drilled pass to release Jack Harrison on the left. Marcelo Bielsa has transformed him into a Regista (My favorite type of player), and there’s a strong case for him to start England’s opening group game against Croatia at Euro 2021 this summer.
That meant only one of my five bets hit, resulting in a 5.44 Unit loss and putting me at -10.242 Units for the season. With two Matchdays left, I’m torn between going all out to finish in profit or lose more in a blaze of glory. Read on to find out my choice.
Hit me up on Twitter @RegistaPicks with your thoughts, who you support, and picks for the week.
CHELSEA VS LEICESTER CITY BETTING TIPS
These two meet again, 3 days after their FA Cup final at Wembley. Leicester City dug deep to win 1-0 and lift the trophy for the first time in their history.
With all the negativity around the Super League and ownership these last few weeks, it was a breath of fresh air to see Kasper Schmeichel bring their chairman Top Srivaddhanaprabha onto the pitch and join in the celebrations. You know Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United fans were envious watching it all unfold.
In my opinion, a lot of fans and pundits used the result to overly criticize Thomas Tuchel for his team selection in the FA Cup final. The game’s only goal was an unstoppable long-range drive from Youri Tielemans that gave Kepa no chance. Schmeichel pulled off a couple of outstanding saves, and Ben Chilwell’s equalizer was ruled offside by a matter of centimeters. I’ve said many times before that Football’s a game of very small margins, and on another day, this game could have gone very differently.
This brings me to Tuesday night’s meeting at Stamford Bridge which I’m confident will have a different outcome. Leicester will be emotionally and physically drained from Saturday’s game and the celebrations. Their squad isn’t as deep as Chelsea’s, with Brendan Rogers only able to make a few changes. I think James Maddison and Ricardo Pereira will come in for Ayoze Pérez and Luke Thomas, respectively. Marc Albrighton will start at right wingback with Timothy Castagne dropping into the back three for the injured Jonny Evans.
Tuchel has a wealth of riches at his disposal and will rotate his squad. Edouard Mendy, Chilwell, Kurt Zouma, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Christian Pulišić, and Kai Havertz will definitely start. I wouldn’t be surprised if Olivier Giroud gets the nod to bring some physicality and aerial threat to Chelsea’s frontline. Tuchel is known for his tactical brilliance and will make a few tweaks to take Chelsea one step closer to securing a Top 4 finish.
Put your money behind Chelsea to collect a clean sheet and all 3 points.
Prediction – 3 Units: Chelsea Money Line -143 | 2 Units: Chelsea Win To Nil +163
SOUTHAMPTON VS LEEDS UNITED BETTING TIPS
If Leeds wins their last two games and results go their way, they could finish the season in 8th. That would be an amazing achievement for the newly-promoted side and a testament to how good a manager Marcelo ‘El Loco” Bielsa is. He received a lot of criticism earlier in the season for their cavalier playing style. They have tightened up at the back in recent weeks, conceding 7 goals in their last 9 matches.
Bielsa has an almost full squad to pick from with Helder Postiga the only notable absentee. Ralph Hasenhüttl has Will Smallbone, Ryan Bertrand, Oriol Romeu, and Jan Bednarak all out injured. That will force Southampton’s manager to pick a similar starting eleven that beat Fulham 3-1 at the weekend.
El Loco will demand a 100% from his players right up until the final whistle on Matchday 38 as he pushed them to finish the season strongly. That is the reason why I think Leeds will be too much for The Saints and will make this their third win in a row.
Back Leeds to score a few goals and win.
Prediction – 3 Units: Leeds United Money Line +143 | 2 Units Leeds United Team Total Over 1.5 Goals -117
SEASON BETTING RESULTS
TOTAL WINS: 35
TOTAL LOSSES: 57
WIN %: 38.04%
HOW TO BET THE PREMIER LEAGUE IN THE US
In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey, Indiana, and Pennsylvania.