Who will join Norwich City and Sheffield United in the Premier League next season?
The Premier League promotion playoff takes place Monday, May 27th at 10am ET as Aston Villa square off against Derby County.
The stakes are huge.
How huge? From a financial standpoint, it’s the single biggest game of the entire soccer year. Promotion will earn the winning club more than the £90-100m+ Liverpool or Tottentham will haul for capturing the 2019 Champions League Final trophy.
As noted in the latest No Grass in the Clouds newsletter:
Promotion to the Premier League is worth different amounts to clubs in play-offs, depending on whether they receive parachute payments (and how much): Derby County £161m, Fulham £149m, Aston Villa £132m, Middlesbrough £125m #DCFC #FFC #AVFC #Boro pic.twitter.com/Ekvp7dDLJx— Swiss Ramble (@SwissRamble) May 11, 2018
For two clubs in financial distress, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Aston Villa vs Derby County Playoff Odds
At FanDuel Sportsbook NJ, Aston Villa is the clear favorite at +115.
|Aston Villa +115||Draw +210||Derby County +250|
FiveThirtyEight match probability gives Aston Villa the slight edge as well.
If you like Derby Count, their +250 means there’s a 28.6% implied probability that they’ll win. FiveThirtyEight lists them at 40%. If you’re value hunting, Derby is worth a look.
As we always write though, soccer is fluky on a game-by-game basis. Aston Villa should win and would be a modest candidate to avoid relegation next season.
Regardless of who is promoted, their 2019-20 Premier League title odds will be in the +25000-50000 range.
About Aston Villa
Aston Villa was once a legit top division team, with a history of greater note than FFP violating Manchester City.
They finished second in the inaugural Premier League season (1992-93) to Manchester United (already promoted Norwich was third that year).
They won England’s top division in 1980-81. Aston Villa had a string of top 6 finishes in the Premier League from 2007-2010.
They were relegated in 2015-16.
About Derby County
Derby County has had more of an up and down existence than Aston Villa. They were a force in the 1970’s, winning England’s top division twice. However, they’ve bounced around divisions 1-3 since then.
Derby was last relegated from the Premier League in 2008. They’ve been a mid-table to top-table Championship team since then.