We’re about one-third of the way into the Premier League season. Some teams that looked like relegation candidates at the start of the season have scrapped together enough points to give themselves breathing room (hello, Crystal Palace). Others teams who have better underlying numbers have been incredibly unlucky, and may be too far behind to climb back up (TURN DOWN FOR WATFORD).
In the Championship, it’s a little crowded at the top. However, a few teams are starting to clearly stand out.
Here’s a look at relegation and promotion odds for the Premier League.
2019-20 Premier League Relegation Odds[table “169” not found /]
What stands out here? The bottom three in the table have dug themselves a pretty deep hole on points that will be difficult to climb out of by May. Watford have been very unlucky, under-performing their xPTs by 8(!!!). Newcastle have been very lucky, and should be in the relegation zone. However, those 15 total points are huge for the Magpies right now.
The real surprise here is West Ham. A potential top 6 contender in August, the Hammers are at 13 points and don’t have the underlying numbers of a better team (like Everton). In fact, the Hammers have the real numbers of a relegation candidate. If you’re looking for a potential “next sacking” candidate, Manuel Pellegrini may be it.
Everton’s underlying data has them as a 5th place team, ahead of Leicester. And that’s where these xG and xPTs data points sometimes falls short. There’s not a person alive that’s watched Everton and Leicester this season and felt those two squads are about even.
Regardless, Norwich is going to get relegated. Newcastle still may. Watford may climb out.
2019-20 Premier League Promotion Odds
So who is potentially coming up?[table “170” not found /]
Leeds leads the way. It has been a long road back (potentially) for Leeds. They won England’s top division in 1991-92, the last season before the Premier League. But they exited the Premier League after the 2003-04 season. They narrowly missed promotion last season, finishing 3rd and losing in the playoff.
After one year away from England’s top flight, Fulham are positioned for a potential return as well.
What about Sunderland in League One?
For fans of Sunderland ‘Til I Die, the Black Cats have second best odds of coming up from League One to the Championship next season at +175. Get after it, Sunderland.
Still no word on a release date for Sunderland ‘Til I Die season 2.
Where to Bet Premier League in US
In the US, you can legally bet on soccer online in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.