Do Any Premier League Teams Other than Liverpool and Manchester City Want to Qualify for the UEFA Champions League?

Posted By Chops on April 22, 2019

While Liverpool and Manchester City slug it out in an epic Premier League title race for the ages…

…the battle for the two other remaining Champions League spots remain very up for grabs. Three of the four teams vying for those spots–Tottenham, Arsenal, and Manchester United–lost this weekend. The fourth, Chelsea, play Burnley at home on Monday.

Where the Premier League title race stands with a month remaining

Liverpool or Man City will win the Premier League title, that’s assured. With Liverpool’s 2-0 defeat of Cardiff on Sunday, the Reds sit atop the table with 88 points. Those 88 points would’ve be good enough to win the title 14 times in 26 Premier League seasons to date.

If Liverpool win out, their 97 points would be second best all time…to Manchester City’s 100 last season.

Manchester City have a game in hand and currently sit at 86 points. Their toughest remaining game is this Wednesday’s derby away at Manchester United. After Man U got drubbed by Everton on Sunday, how tough a match will it actually be?

Oddsmakers don’t think it’ll be much of a battle. FanDuel Sportsbook NJ lists United, at home, as an underdog at +550. City is favored at -230. A draw is +390.

FiveThirtyEight probabilities are even starker for United, giving them only a meager 15% shot at victory and 20% at a draw.

If City defeat United on Wednesday, the Premier League title is almost assuredly theirs. However, if they’ drop any points at all, even a draw–then Liverpool could win out their remaining 3 games and claim their first ever Premier League title.

Oddsmakers view City as favorites with a month remaining. FanDuel Sportsbook NJ futures have City priced at +180 to Liverpool’s +125.

Where the Premier League UCL race stands with a month remaining

Now about that “battle” for Champions League qualification…

A Chelsea win over Burnley on Monday moves them into third with 69 points (Tottenham, Arsenal, and Manchester United will have a game in hand). Arsenal losing to Crystal Palace 3-2 and United getting pummeled 4-0 by Everton on Sunday put a major dent in both of their UCL hopes.

Tottenham deservedly sit in the driver’s seat. From there it gets more complicated.

Two of Arsenal’s remaining three games are on the road (against Wolves and Leicester City). Arsenal sucks on the road this season.

Chelsea also play two of their remaining three on the road–except their games are harder overall (at United and Leicester).

If Man U somehow pull out a win against City on Wednesday, they’ll be back in the UCL conversation. A loss or even a draw and they’re almost certainly looking at the Europa League next season.

Leicester have the chance to be the biggest spoiler of any team in the Premier League, closing their season home vs Arsenal, away vs City, and home vs Chelsea.

BetStars NJ agrees with FiveThirtyEight probabilities. Tottenham is -800 for a top 4 finish. From there, Chelsea (-110) and Chelsea (-110) follow, with Manchester United much longer (+700).

This weekend provided no new clarity. That muddled picture is assured to change over the next 7 days.

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Chops is the executive producer of High Press Soccer. He's an unabashed Liverpool fan who will absolutely let that bias seep into his reporting and analysis.

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