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2019-20 Premier League Predictions: Who Wins Golden Boot? First Manager Sacked? And How Will Christian Pulisic Do?

Chops August 9, 2019
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Earlier this week, we made our 2019-20 Premier League title, top 4, and relegation predictions.

Now we’re going to take a look at some individual player and manager performance and prop bets for the season. Back again are site contributors Tyler Everett, ex-Newcastle forward Carl Cort, and Statsbomb writer and High Press Soccer contributor Grace Robertson

Who will win the Golden Boot for top Premier League goal scorer this year?

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook: Harry Kane +350, Mohamed Salah +500,
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang +650, Sergio Aguero +650, Raheem Sterling +1600, Sadio Mane +1600, Jamie Vardy +1800, Alexandre Lacazette +2600, Gabriel Jesus +2900, Marcus Rashford +2900, Moise Kean +3400, Sebastien Haller +3400, Roberto Firmino +3400, Nicolas Pepe +4500

ChopsWell, if you look at the odds, it’s Harry Kane (+350), Mo Salah (+500), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (+650), Sergio Aguero (+650) and everyone else. 

Of those, while I think Harry Kane will be lights-out this year, how can you go against Mo Salah? He’s won it the past two seasons. He’s going to finish more chances this year than he did last year (although he couldn’t finish a sentence in the Community Shield). It’s hard not to like Mo.

It’s worth noting though if you’re looking for value, Raheem Sterling at +1600 is interesting and Nicolas Pepe at +4500 is crazy.
TylerWill Kane enjoy good enough health to be a more prolific scorer than he was a year ago? You would have to imagine so. Still, I think he’ll be closer to last year’s tally (17) than the numbers he posted in ‘16-17 (29) and ‘17-18 (30). With Son Heung-min and this team’s growing number of dangerous midfielders, there will be enough balance to prevent Kane from leading the EPL in goals. 

I’d probably lean toward Salah even if his and Kane’s odds were the same, so the fact that the payout is bigger if the Egyptian wins this race makes this an easy choice. Let’s say the Salah we should expect over the coming years is the average of last year (22) and his monster ‘17-18 (32) — that would be 27, which ought to be plenty.
GraceI tend to favour Salah on this front. After a perceived down year last time, I think he’ll find space a little easier to come by with opposing defenders not marking him quite so tightly. Aubameyang could easily score a lot of goals again. If you’re looking for an outside bet, I’ll take a swing and suggest Sebastien Haller (+3400).
CarlIt’s a close call for me between Sadio Mane and Aubameyang but I’m going to have to go with Mane through this campaign. Not that I think he’s the best out and out goal scorer in the league. But he is definitely one of the most dynamic attacking players surrounded by exceptional quality. 
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Who will be the first manager sacked?

Odds from various sites: Ole Gunnar Solskjaer +500, Roy Hodgson +600, Graham Potter +800, Steve Bruce +800, Marco Silva +1400, Sean Dyche +1600, Frank Lampard +1600

ChopsFirst, it’s hard to ignore OGS (+500) and Frank Lampard (+1600) if for no other reason than the instability of their organizations. Being a Chelsea manager is like being the drummer in Spinal Tap.

In OGS’ case, it would be a stunning admission of incompetence by management to sack him this soon. In Lampard’s case, because it’s a transitional year, and he’s a veritable Blues legend, Chelski will give him a full season.

To me, it comes down to Roy Hodgson and Steve Bruce. I’m leaning towards Hodgson. Palace feels set up to fail early on, and Hodgson will pay the price. 
TylerI think there’s a good reason OGS is +500 here. There are a million ways this ManU season can go wrong, and the good feelings OGS engendered last spring will be distant memories if this team struggles for more than a week or two. Though managing Chelsea is always dicey, no matter who you are, I think a coaching change is more likely in Manchester than in west London.
GraceIs Solskjaer that bad? I mean, he’s not great. But the club have emotionally invested a lot in him and, while they didn’t get everything done that they wanted, it looks a stronger squad to me right now than last season. I don’t see anything brilliant happening at Man Utd, but I think he holds on for a while.

Elsewhere I think Marco Silva isn’t as safe as some perceive him to be. We saw it two years ago that Everton were not afraid to sack Ronald Koeman after spending big and not seeing instant results. It wouldn’t shock me if the same thing happened again.
CarlI have to agree with you on this one Chops. It seems as though Newcastle have accepted mediocrity and this fact will keep Steve Bruce in the Job longer than he should be. Hodgson will be the first to see the door! 

Which new transfer will have the greatest impact on his team?

ChopsI want to go with Nicholas Pepe, and not just because he’s on my fantasy team. However, scoring goals wasn’t Arsenal’s biggest issue last year. Pepe will have a solid year and contribute to Arsenal’s top 4 run, but his exact impact may be harder to quantify. 

However, I’m on Sébastien Haller’s corner. He’s in his prime. He fills a need for the Hammers. If West Ham are sniffing around the top 6 in April as I suspect they will be, we’ll all be talking about Haller’s impact.
TylerI like both Pepe and Haller a lot — and expect big seasons from both — but I’m going to go with … Christian Pulisic? As bullish as I am on our USMNT’s own, not quite. For me, it’s Tanguy Ndombele at Tottenham. There’s a reason he was as coveted as just about anyone this summer, and I think he’ll turn heads. I’m buying the hype on the 22-year-old, who will quickly blossom under Pochettino.
GraceIt’s gotta be Ndombele for me. Spurs were a mess in midfield last season and played their best stuff by often bypassing it altogether. In order to rejuvenate that area of the pitch, they needed someone who could do a bit of everything, and they got exactly the man they needed in the Frenchman.

In terms of others to make a big impact, it’s a sink or swim move, but I think Pablo Fornals could do really well for West Ham. The Spaniard is a perfect Manuel Pellegrini player and can fill the kind of role that David Silva played on his Man City team. It could be a disaster and he’ll be back to Spain in a year. Or it could really work and he’ll make a move to a top 6 club.
CarlI still believe Arsenal will surprise the league this season. What brings me to this conclusion is the addition of Nicolas Pepe, who I think will have a huge impact on their success  and the greatest impact of the new transfers.

What do you think Christian Pulisic’s total goal and total assists will be for the season?

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Odds from FanDuel — Goals: Over 9.5 (-134), Over 12.5 (+320) | Assists Over 9.5 (-223), Over 12.5 (+200)

Also read: Christian Pulisic prop bets

ChopsWow. So oddsmakers are bullish on Pulisic’s impact this year. He’s odds-on for at least 10 goals and 10 assists. If he hits those marks, he’d be the new answer for “biggest impact player.”

I like Pulisic, he’s looked great in preseason. But can we temper our expectations on him a bit? Kid is 20. The good news for him is he’ll have plenty of opportunity in Lampard’s offense. Let’s keep in mind though he wasn’t regularly starting for BVB last season. The Premier League is a different beast than the Bundesliga. 

Pulisic: 7 goals, 11 assists (which would be a fantastic debut season)
TylerI’m with Chops. As excited as I am to watch him, 10 goals and 10 assists would be a pleasant surprise. As we discussed on the most recent High Press Pod (LINK IF POSSIBLE), I think the O/U on goals should have been more like 8 or 8.5. In that case, I would have bet the over. And I’ll say he comes as close as he can to 9.5 assists without actually hitting it.

Pulisic: 9 goals, 9 assists.
GraceHe’s clearly a really talented kid and I don’t have too many doubts that he’ll be an excellent signing for Chelsea in the long term. But if we’re talking right now, it could be a tough long season for Pulisic. Chelsea could be a mess this year, and he’s got a brutal spot in filling Eden Hazard’s shoes. I’m going for 7 each, which would still be the most he’s had in his career.
CarlPulisic is an exciting player to watch. He seems to play with no fear and possess the capabilities of beating players. With that being said I just don’t think he’s going to have a significant impact on the league this season. Firstly he’s still 20 years old, lacking experience and going into a club in transition. Secondly this is the Premier League!! Nothing he’s experienced before can come close. I do think he’s one for the future but for me this season is too soon.

Premier League Golden Boot Winners: Salah, Mane and Aubameyang End with 22

High Press 10 May 12, 2019

The 2018-19 Premier League season ended with three deserving Golden Boot winners.

Liverpool’s Mo Salah and Sadio Mane (thanks to a final day brace) ended with 22 goals, a tally Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang tied on Sunday as well. 

Chelsea’s soon-to-be-departing-for-Real-Madrid (sorry, truth) Eden Hazard led all Premier League players with 31 accounted for scores (16 goals, 15 assists). Mo Salah followed him with 30 (but yeah, what an off-year he had).

Raheem Sterling, who finished second in the PFA Player of the Year voting and earned a PFA starting XI spot over Salah, was five goals and three total scores accounted for behind the Egyptian King. 🤷‍♀️

Final Golden Boot Tallies 

Here are the top 8 goal scorers this year:

  1. Mohamed Salah: 22 goals, 8 assists
  2. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang: 22 goals, 5 assists
  3. Sadio Mane: 22 goals, 1 assist
  4. Sergio Aguero: 21 goals, 8 assists
  5. Jamie Vardy: 18 goals, 4 assists
  6. Raheem Sterling: 17 goals, 10 assists
  7. Harry Kane: 17 goals, 4 assists
  8. Eden Hazard: 16 goals, 15 assists

Premier League Golden Boot Odds: Mo Salah Pulls Even with Sergio Aguero

Chops April 15, 2019

Mo Salah scored an extra sweet stunner of a goal on Sunday, helping Liverpool to a 2-0 win over Chelsea.

The goal was Salah’s 19th of the year and pulled him even with Sergio Aguero for the Premier League lead.

On Salah and Aguero’s heels are their respective teammates Sadio Mane (18) and Raheem Sterling (17).

Raheem Sterling in particular is making a late-charge at the Golden Boot, netting a brace on Sunday after notching a hat trick last month against Watford.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Harry Kane also have 17 goals a piece.

Where Aguero, Salah, and Sterling stand out is how they’re creating opportunities other than just finding the back of the net. Aguero and Salah have both contributed 7 assists this campaign, and Sterling has 9.

Salah is also leading all Premier League players in total shots, taking 88 so far this campaign. However, Aguero is making the most of his time on the field, scoring a goal every 109 minutes played (compared to Salah’s one per 153 minutes).

Premier League Golden Boot Odds

Despite City having a game-in-hand, Aguero and Salah are the same odds at +163 to win the Golden Boot (meaning you bet $100 to win $163, go here for a refresher on how to bet soccer). Given their respective team’s title chase, expect both to play all of their remaining Premier League games.

All odds from BetStars NJ as of 04/14/19.

Sergio Aguero +163Mo Salah +163Sadio Mane +500
Aubameyang +700Raheem Sterling +1000Harry Kane +2500

Given Harry Kane’s latest injury, it’s safe to rule him out of contention now. There’s certainly some value in Sterling’s +1000. He scores in bunches and City need him in top form for their remaining five domestic games.

Salah looked very confident on Sunday though, and if he plays like that the remainder of the season, he could quickly run away with the scoring title again (some down year).

Premier League Golden Boot Odds Update: Aguero Leads, Are Mane and Sterling Undervalued?

High Press 10 March 25, 2019

Back in January, we here at High Press Soccer wrote that the Premier League Golden Boot was Mo Salah‘s to lose. At that point on January 20th, Salah had 16 goals. He was two ahead of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and a recently injured Harry Kane. Sergio Aguero was a distant six behind with 10 goals.

Over the next two months, Salah couldn’t finish a sentence.

Since Janaury, Salah has bagged one goal. He sits with 17, one behind Sergio Aguero’s 18.

The Premier League is back in action this weekend after the international break. It’ll be a sprint to the finish as there will be no more weekend’s off before the season wraps. Here’s a look at Golden Boot leaders, odds, and why this is a crapshoot with some value.

Premier League Golden Boot Odds

The following table has Golden Boot odds and goal tallies as of March 25th. Here’s a good resource for how to bet soccer, and all odds are from BetStars NJ.

Sergio Aguero +150 (18 goals) Mo Salah +300 (17 goals) Harry Kane +333 (17 goals)
Aubameyang +600 (17 goals) Sadio Mane +850 (17 goals) Raheem Sterling +2500 (15 goals)

With so many prolific scorers so closely bunched up, any one of the above six has a realistic shot at the boot. Liverpool’s Mane and Salah have a game in hand on Aguero, Kane, Aubameyang, and Sterling. However, Mane and Salah are also (as of now) about the sole offensive output for Liverpool (save occasionally for Virgil van Dijk‘s head).

Nobody on the list is overvalued, but you could argue that Mane and Reheem Sterling are very undervalued. Mane is having a Salah-esque end of season hot streak, with 10 goals in his last 10 games. Sterling is capable of a hat trick in any given game. He’s having the best season of his career, and is in PFA Player of the Year discussions.

Mane at +850 and Sterling at +2500 are fun fliers to book and ride out the season.

 

Premier League Top Goal Scorers: Why the Golden Boot is Mohamed Salah’s to Lose

High Press 10 January 20, 2019

With 23 games in the books this 2018-19 Premier League season, the Golden Boot award is once again Mohamed Salah‘s to lose.

Notching a brace in Saturday’s 4-3 win over Crystal Palace, Salah sits with 16 goals, two clear of Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Tottenham’s injured Harry Kane.

Many expected Salah to take a step back this season, but this is proving to be a second-verse, same as the first campaign. At this point last year, Salah had 18 goals and 7 assists. He sits with 16 goals and 7 assists in the Premier League so far, and is just hitting his stride.

If you booked Salah at his pre-season +450 to win the Golden Boot, you’re in excellent shape. Harry Kane will be stalled out at 14 until late March. Only Aubameyang is within shouting distance of Salah with 14 goals. A full six behind Salah are a quartet including Eden Hazard (10), Callum Wilson (10), Sergio Agüero (10), and Raheem Sterling (10).

Salah leads the Premier League in goals per minute as well, finding the net once every 121 minutes only trailing fellow teammate Divock Origi who scores once every 71 minutes. Aubameyang scores one every 131 minutes. Of the viable contenders, only Agüero’s clip is close at every 136 minutes.

Given Liverpool’s reliance on Salah and their potential tight title race, along with his elite goals-per-minutes-played statistics, the Egyptian King’s reign will likely continue.

Golden Boot Leaders After Week 23

  1. Mohamed Salah (16 goals, 7 assists)
  2. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (14 goals, 3 assists)
  3. Harry Kane (14 goals, 4 assists)
  4. Eden Hazard (10 goals, 10 assists)
  5. Callum Wilson (10 goals, 5 assists)
  6. Raheem Sterling (10 goals, 7 assists)
  7. Sergio Agüero (10 goals, 6 assists)
  8. Roberto Firmino (9 goals, 3 assists)
  9. Sadio Mane (9 goals, 1 assist)
  10. Gylfi Sigurdsson (9 goals, 3 assists)
  11. Richarlison (9 goals, 1 assist)
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