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Premier League Betting

Premier League Matchday 12 Lines: Best Games of the Year?

High Press 10 November 8, 2019

Rightly so, all focus on Premier League matchday 12 is on the single biggest soccer game of the season: Liverpool vs Manchester City.

However, there are plenty of quality and intriguing match-ups and decent value bets. From Leicester vs Arsenal to Tottenham vs Sheffield and even Chelsea vs Crystal Palace, it’ll be an entertaining weekend in England.

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2019-20 Premier League Matchday 12 Lines

HOMEDATEAWAY
Friday, November 8th
Norwich City +170Draw +255Watford +150
Saturday, November 9th
Chelsea -315Draw +450Crystal Palace +850
Southampton +188Draw +240Everton +145
Burnely +128Draw +255West Ham +205
Newcastle +155Draw +220Bournemouth +188
Tottenham -182Draw +320Sheffield United +510
Leicester +104Draw +265Arsenal +250
Sunday, November 10th
Manchester United -167Draw +270Brighton +550
Wolves -114Draw +255Aston Villa +305
Liverpool +165Draw +255Manchester City +155

Odds & Ends

  • Let’s not bury the lead: Liverpool vs Manchester City is basically the Super Bowl. We’ve covered the match extensively. From a betting perspective though, anytime you can get Liverpool priced +165 at Anfield it’s worth a look.
  • Friday’s match of Norwich vs Watford may not be marquee, but it is an absolute must-win for both squads. Those 3 points are critical if the Canaries and Hornets want to fight relegation. Expect a hard-fought, entertaining game.
  • Chelsea is getting -315 at home vs a better-than-expected Crystal Palace. While Chelsea sit 4th in the table, Palace are 9th–ahead of Manchester United and Tottenham. While that -315 price is terrible, Chelsea have the best recent form of any domestic side. It’s hard to make a case for Palace to win this one.
  • Tottenham vs Sheffield should be legitimately entertaining. The Blades sit sixth in the table to Spurs 11th and have a better gd (4 to 1). The +320 draw is a good price for a match that Tottenham frankly shouldn’t be odds-on to win.
  • Leicester vs Arsenal should be entertaining as hell. Given the turmoil and inconsistency surrounding the Gunners and Unai Emery, it’s hard seeing them pulling points. Leicester at +104 is a great value for a clearly better side.

Where to bet the Premier League in the US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tottenham Heavy Underdogs to Liverpool and All Premier League Matchday 10 Lines

High Press 10 October 25, 2019

Liverpool feature again as the marquee match-up of Premier League matchday 10. The Reds are big favorites (-200) as they host Tottenham (+550) at Anfield.

Read: Liverpool vs Tottenham Preview

Do Manchester City even play any of the Big 6 clubs this season? Did their owners buy off the schedule makers in the EPL like they do in the UCL too?

Anyway…

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Premier League Matchday 10 Lines

HOMEDATEAWAY
Friday, October 26th
Southampton +210Draw +250Leicester +130
Saturday, October 27th
Manchester City -1115Draw +1000Aston Villa +2500
West Ham +105Draw +250Sheffield +260
Brighton +185Draw +225Everton +155
Watford +118Draw +250Bournemouth +230
Burnley +250Draw +310Chelsea -134
Sunday, October 27th
Newcastle +195Draw +210Wolves +163
Liverpool -200Draw +350Tottenham +550
Arsenal -215Draw +370Crystal Palace +550
Norwich +350Draw +290Manchester United -124

Odds & Ends

  • Watford…is a favorite…against anyone? Believe it! The Hornets (+118) are favored at home vs Bournemouth (+230). It’s actually a fair line. Watford are the most under-performing team via xG and xGA in the EPL and Bournemouth are exceeding their projections.
  • Chelsea are favored (-134) on the road vs Burnley (+340). Chelsea is on a tear. However, we expect some inconsistent results as the season goes on. Young teams can struggle on the road (although Chelsea did not struggle vs Ajax). This could be an ugly game where the draw at +310 comes into play.
  • Leicester is due to lay a turd. Southampton is better than you think. Don’t be surprised if the Foxes drop points here.
  • Yes, Tottenham’s offense finally broke through in the UCL this week. However, their defense is still very easy to break through. Liverpool -200 at Anfield almost seems generous.

Where to bet the Premier League in the US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook.

Manchester United Relegation Odds

High Press 10 October 7, 2019

Manchester United. Wow.

After 8 Premier League games, Manchester United have 9 points and sit 2 clear of relegation.

Math math math…that’s not good.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer record since being named permanent manager

Man U have played 20 games across all competitions since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was named permanent manager. Here’s how that’s gone:

  • 5 Wins, 6 Draws, 9 losses
  • 17 goals scored, 26 goals conceded, -9 goal differential
  • A record good for 17th best in the Premier League

OGS by no means is the only problem at Old Trafford. He’s not been set up for success. But Roy Hodgson is looking at those numbers and laughing himself to sleep.

Manchester United relegation odds

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Despite the sustained run of poor form, United are still only +7000 to see relegation this season.

As of October 6 
Norwich -129Watford +120
Newcastle +125Aston Villa +200
Sheffield +200Southampton +275
Brighton +350Burnley +500
Bournemouth +600Crystal Palace +900
Everton +1100West Ham +1400
Wolves +2000Manchester United +7000

Everton, who currently sit in the relegation zone, are +1100. Marco Silva’s seat is very hot.

Crystal Palace, who were among relegation favorites to start the campaign, have seen the most improvement in their odds. They’re now priced at +900.

Where to Bet the Premier League in the US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer online in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook

 

 

 

Liverpool Are Now Odds-On Favorites to Win Premier League

Chops October 7, 2019

Well, it only took a UEFA Champions League title, 17 straight domestic wins, 25 straight domestic games without a loss, and going 8 points clear of  Manchester City after just 8 games, but Liverpool are odds-on favorites to win the Premier League.

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Liverpool Premier League Title Odds

After Liverpool beat a solid Leicester team 2-1 in front of a sold-out and boisterous Anfield crowd on Saturday, and City laid an 0-2 💩 to Wolves in front of a lifeless Etihad crowd, oddsmakers have given the Reds the edge for their first EPL crown.

Here are the odds as of October 6th:

Liverpool -150 Manchester City +130 Chelsea +8000

Every other team is +10000 or more.

Liverpool Premier League Title Probabilities

Liverpool also are listed as title favorites for the first time all season on FiveThirtyEight.

Basically, odds and probabilities for Liverpool and City flipped from Friday until today.

Amazingly, Manchester United are still given 15% probability of UCL qualification. Even more amazingly, Crystal Palace (!!!) have a 6% shot.

Where to Bet the Premier League in the US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer online in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook

Liverpool Are Perfect This Season and Have Won 16 In-A-Row and Are STILL NOT Title Favorites and Some Top 4 Finish Values

High Press 10 September 29, 2019

Liverpool, champions of Europe, gutted out a 1-0 victory away at Sheffield United on Saturday. The win kept Liverpool perfect for the season at 7-0-0. Going back to last season, they’ve won 16 domestic games in a row. That’s the third longest Premier League streak ever.

They’re also the fifth best team of all-time according to ClubElo (and approaching fourth). After 7 games, they’re 5 points clear of FFP and human / women’s rights violating Manchester City.

And they’re still not favorites to win the 2019-20 Premier League title.

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Updated 2019-20 Premier League Title Odds

Yes, there are 20 teams currently in England’s top flight. However, when it comes to title odds, there are really only two.

Manchester City -125 Liverpool +115

The next closest batch of competitors (Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea) are at +10000. None of the other four major domestic leagues (we don’t count Ligue Ugh) have such a top heavy titles future market.

Premier League Top Four Odds

There’s at least a little intrigue here. While Liverpool and City’s odds for at top 4 are off the board now, the next batch of teams is closely bunched.

TeamTop 4
Tottenham -150
Arsenal+110
Chelsea +130
Manchester United+225
Leicester+300
West Ham+2500
Bournemouth+10000

If you’re looking for value, Manchester United have been unlucky this season and have the metrics of a top 4 squad. That +225 is appealing. Leicester have been the third best team in the EPL since the start of 2019. Their +300 is decently priced.

Where to Bet Premier League in the US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer online in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook

2019-20 Premier League Matchday 6 Lines

High Press 10 September 18, 2019

Seven Premier League teams play European soccer this week. However, only two of those teams play each other this weekend.

All eyes will be on Sunday’s showdown between Chelsea and Liverpool. However, there are plenty of intriguing matches this weekend. Here’s a look at the lines.

2019-20 Premier League Matchday 6 Lines

HOMEDATEAWAY
Friday, September 20th
Southampton +100Draw +265Bournemouth +265
Saturday, September 21st
Leicester +205Draw +250Tottenham +130
Everton -155Draw +275Sheffield United +475
Burnley -106Draw +285Norwich City +260
Manchester City -835Draw +800Watford +1800
Newcastle +150Draw +215Brighton +200
Sunday, September 22nd
West Ham +235Draw +265Manchester United +110
Crystal Palace +185Draw +225Wolves +155
Arsenal -265Draw +400Aston Villa +700
Chelsea +270Draw +260Liverpool +100

Odds & Ends

  • Tottenham visits Leicester on Saturday. Both teams are sitting at 8 points in the table, though Spurs lead on goal differential. Spurs haven’t lost on the road this season. Leicester hasn’t lost at home. Obviously, they’ll draw 2-2.
  • We already did a West Ham vs Manchester United preview, so we’ll try not to get repetitive here. If Man U is fully fit, they should have enough to scrape by with a win and sole possession of third place.
  • Wolves will be desperate for a win Sunday on the road at Palace. That +155 oddly feels like one of the better bets of the week.
  • And finally, Chelsea vs Liverpool. Both squads were unfortunate not to come away with a point in their opening Champions League matches. Expect both squads to come out lively. Liverpool has more quality. They’ll gut out a road win.

Where to Bet Premier League in the US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer online in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook

2019-20 Premier League Matchday 5 Odds

High Press 10 September 8, 2019

Premier League matchday 5 has a number of interesting and important match-ups for future finishing positions.

Is Leicester a real threat for the top 4? We’ll know more after they visit Old Trafford and play Manchester United.

Does Crystal Palace, who currently sit 4th, actually have a chance to finish in the top 6? No. They don’t. They have no chance. But if they manage to wrangle a point from Tottenham on the road, you’ll start to pause and at least think about it as opposed to pausing and laughing about it.

Chelsea and Christian Pulisic visit Wolverhampton. Wolves are still searching for their first win. Chelsea has struggled, sitting 11th. Something has to give. One team will propel their season forward with a win.

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2019-20 Premier League Matchday 5 Game Odds

With that out of the way, here are your Premier League matchday 5 game odds. All lines as of 09/08/19 on DraftKings Sportsbook NJ.

HOMESaturday, September 14AWAY
Liverpool -770Draw +750Newcastle +1900
Sheffield United +155Draw +220Southampton +190
Tottenham -286Draw +400Crystal Palace +850
Brighton +120Draw +225Burnley +245
Manchester United -134Draw +275Leicester +380
Wolverhampton +195Draw +225Chelsea +250
Norwich +1500Draw +750Manchester City -670
Sunday, September 15
Bournemouth +210Draw +250Everton +125
Watford +280Draw +265Arsenal -106
Monday, September 16
Aston Villa +160Draw +250West Ham +165

Odds & Ends

  • Manchester United are not as bad as their 8th place standing indicates. They have a +3 goal differential and have been unlucky both in xG and xGA. In fact, their xPTS place them 2nd in the EPL. Having said all of that, look at the +275 draw in their match against Leicester.
  • Speaking of unlucky teams, Wolves and Chelsea both are wanting in xG & xGA. Both are under-performing by xPTS as well. One of these squads will break through this week. Chelsea at +150 seems like the right bet.
  • Liverpool are the biggest favorite of the week, priced at -770 at home vs Newcastle. Spending $770 to win +100 may not seem like a lot of fun, but it’s easy money.

Where to Bet Premier League in the US

In the US, you can legally bet on soccer online in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

For New Jersey, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook NJ or FanDuel Sportsbook

Norwich City vs Chelsea Matchday 3 Preview

Avatar August 22, 2019
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Who: Norwich City vs Chelsea
When: Saturday, August 24th @ 07:30 pm ET
LineNorwich +200 | Draw +290 | Chelsea -120

Time is slowly running out for Chelsea’s quest of challenging for the Premier League top-four, with Frank Lampard’s side yet to register a win this season.

Of course, it’s still early days and they can definitely mount a strong come-back soon. A victory is quintessential towards easing the tension in the air. For a side who finished third last season, inability to win a single match so far is concerning.

To Lampard’s defence, his first games weren’t the easiest to deal with. However, stumbling against Norwich City could pose serious questions about his ability as a top-flight manager. Anything lackluster against the red-hot Teemu Pukki led Norwich will probably tick off a series of problems which derails Chelsea’s season early on.

 Norwich City Likely XI:

Krul, Aarons, Hanley, Godfrey, Lewis, Trybull, Leitner, Buendia, Stiepermann, Cantwell, Pukki.

The Canaries got their first Premier League since being relegated in 2016, inspired by Finnish hitman Teemu Pukki. It’s unlikely that Daniel Farke will make any changes after the Newcastle drubbing, knowing how well they performed together. Centre-back Christopher Zimmerman, Tim Klose, midfielder Onel Hernandez are the ones unavailable with injuries.

Chelsea Likely XI:

Kepa, Azpilicueta, Christensen, Zouma, Emerson, Jorginho, Kante, Mount, Barkley, Giroud, Pulisic.

Lampard needs a win immediately, as considering this is the kind of game Ross Barkley thrives at, I think he’ll be brought in for Pedro. Michy Batshuayi could make the bench after impressing against Liverpool reserves recently, while defender Antonio Rudiger still remains on the sidelines with an injury.

Norwich City vs Chelsea Match Preview

It’s safe to say that Chelsea’s reign under club legend Frank Lampard’s been the opposite of sweet so far. They’re yet to hit the ground running, having given some very inconsistent performances in recent weeks. While their hiccups to Manchester United and Leicester City can be excused, dropping points to Norwich could force a complete breakdown in momentum.

A major positive about Chelsea’s new system is how their manager is allowing the players to express themselves going forward. The Blues look much more exciting than the drab “Sarriball” from last season, moving forward in numbers to thrill fans with their fluidity. There’s also a greater sense of hunger, particularly from new signing Christian Pulisic.

The USA International’s yet to open his PL score-sheet, but has impressed with his work down the left. With his electric pace, dribbling ability as well as lethality in the final third, I think he can reach Eden Hazard-levels of greatness. However, their bane so far is their defensive organization, which has been extremely sloppy.

With an inexperienced backline and captain Cesar Azpilicueta himself struggling with constant mistakes, there’s little doubt Norwich would go all guns blazing in pressing them. Pukki’s obviously Norwich’s trump card and for me, could cause major headaches for the Chelsea backline. Be it his clever movement or devastating striking ability in the final third, detaining the red-hot striker is like outrunning a cheetah.

Daniel Farke would want his team taking the fight to the vulnerable Chelsea, with Emiliano Buendia as well as Todd Cantwell’s creative genes mixing perfectly with their striker’s goal-scoring hunger. However, the Canaries need to improve their defensive solidity. If they continue making mistakes, I think Chelsea will rip them up apart going forward.

Prediction

This won’t be an easy task for Chelsea at all knowing Norwich’s strong home form, but for me, they should nick it 2-1 to get their season properly underway.

Premier League Matchday 3 Odds

High Press 10 August 20, 2019

It’s Premier League matchday 3. Only 2 teams have not dropped points: Liverpool and Arsenal. Most likely, only 1 will be able to say that after Saturday (Liverpool).

Read: Liverpool vs Arsenal matchday 3 preview

The Reds vs Gunners is by far the best fixture on this weekend’s slate. However, there are a number of games that are important as teams try not to let their season derail or prove they’re no fluke.

2019-20 Premier League Matchday 3 Odds

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Aston Villa +225Draw +250Everton +120
Norwich +290Draw +290Chelsea -115
Brighton +143Draw +215Southampton +210
Manchester United -278Draw +400Crystal Palace +800
Sheffield United +245Draw +220Leicester +123
Watford +115Draw +245West Ham +240
Liverpool -200Draw +370Arsenal +480
Bournemouth +1200Draw +600Manchester City -500
Tottenham -400Draw +510Newcastle +1100
Wolves -121Draw +235Burnely +390

Odds & Ends

  • Are we already into “must win” territory with Chelsea? Norwich aren’t terrible. They create opportunities. Teemu Pukki finishes them. How loud does #LampardOut get if the Blues don’t win?
  • Speaking of Teemu Pukki, he’s only got fourth best odds (+480) as the first goal scorer in Norwich vs Chelsea at DraftKings Sportsbook NJ. Norwich is at home. We’re #teamteemu at HPS. Worth a look.
  • Another team that needs a win: West Ham. Pellegrini’s side was run over by Manchester City in the opener, and drew Brighton last week. West Ham was supposed to be a stealthy contender for the top 6 at best, and a solid mid-table squad at worst. A road loss to current bottom-feeder Watford would raise a lot of concerns among Hammers faithful.
  • Expect Liverpool vs Arsenal to be an open, attack-orientated game. Especially early, as Anfield will be rocking. The +155 for a goal in under 14:59 is a decent play.
  • If Leicester City is for real, they need to handle Sheffield on the road. But is it too soon to ask: what if The Blades are for real? They drew a decent Bournemouth squad on the road. They shut out Palace (with Zaha) at home. We’ll know a lot about these two squads by Saturday afternoon.

Wolverhampton vs Manchester United Matchday 2 Preview

Avatar August 16, 2019

Who: Wolves vs Manchester United
When: Monday, August 19th @ 3:00 pm ET
LineWolves +230 | Draw +225 | NYCFC +138

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The gloomy atmosphere parted ways for bright sunshine at Old Trafford with Manchester United’s emphatic 4-0 victory over Chelsea. After much uncertainty, a strong performance like that reaffirmed the many positives of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s philosophy.

Now, consistency is key for United to fight for a permanent Premier League top-four spot. However, a trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers is anything but fun. Granted, Wolves’ season began with only a draw, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with at home. Considering their impenetrable fortress that is the Molineux Stadium, OGS and co need to be at their strongest to sustain their wonderful start.

Wolves Likely Starting XI:

Patricio, Bennett, Coady, Boly, Doherty, Dendoncker, Neves,  Jonny, Moutinho, Jota, Jimenez.

Wolves shouldn’t have to make any changes from last week because of how well synchronized their regular starting lineup already is at home. New signing Patrick Cutrone, I think, will need to wait for his league full-debut after featuring on Thursday’s UEFA Europa League qualifiers game.  

Manchester United Likely Starting XI:

De Gea, Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Maguire, Shaw, McTominay, Pogba, James, Pereira, Rashford, Martial.

Thankfully for OGS, all three summer signings shone through with strong performances against Chelsea. Daniel James, I feel, should get his full Premier League debut after impressing at Old Trafford. Fred, as well as Nemanja Matic, are yet to prove themselves worthy of breaking into the midfield, while Alexis Sanchez remains unfit amidst questions marks around his future.

Wolves vs Manchester United Match Preview

Well, this hasn’t exactly been the nicest hunting ground for Manchester United in recent times. United lost twice in both visits to the Molineux last season, leaving OGS frustrating. When you look back at how end-to-end, action-packed the fixtures were last season, I think some fireworks are guaranteed on Monday.

United, although, look a much more refreshed side from last season thanks to an effective pre-season. They’re now fitter, more energetic in the field and most importantly, looking very strong defensively with Harry Maguire along with Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s heroics. With Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial roaring, Daniel James bringing the speed, Paul Pogba enjoying life, United look daunting going forward again.

However, they must put in a more compact performance than against Chelsea. Some worrying signs crept up last season, as they were overrun in midfield and albeit sloppy going forward. Those cobwebs must be extinguished if Solskjaer truly wants his side to come out with comprehensive victories away from home.

A cruel case of VAR denied Nuno Espirito Santos’ side an opening matchday win. While they weren’t as clinical as last season against Leicester City, Wolves tend to turn up the volume at home. The atmosphere, fan-support, and similar surroundings all work wonders in amplifying the effectiveness of their fast breaks and beautifully linked attacking style.

If the Raul Jimenez-Diogo Jota duo isn’t deadly enough, new signings Pedro Neto and Cutrone’s arrival has amped up their dynamism. It’s effectively an attack vs defense battle for both sides to decide the encounter. But with United desperate to break their curse, I think their superior momentum along with rigid shape will offer the hosts a menacing challenge than last season.

Prediction

As much as a giant threat Wolves are at home, I think United should scrape a win. OGS’ side looks confident, happy and well-synchronized. These are all potent ingredients to get a narrow win on Monday night.

Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur Matchday 2 Preview

Avatar August 14, 2019

Who: Manchester City vs Tottenham
When: Saturday, August 17th @ 12:30 pm ET on NBC Sports
Where: The Etihad
LineManchester City -286 | Draw +450 | Tottenham +700

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Well, the Premier League title defense got off to the perfect start for Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s side crushed West Ham United 5-0 to kick-off their campaign, which doesn’t really seem surprising if you see they’ve scored 22 goals at the London Stadium in recent years.

Going by their untouchable dominance, there aren’t many to stop their annihilation. However, UEFA Champions League finalists Tottenham Hotspur could have something else in mind  Mauricio Pochettino’s side threw the proverbial kitchen sink at Aston Villa, with their relentless attacking nature proving they’re capable of blowing away any side. Tread carefully, Pep Guardiola.

Manchester City Likely XI:

Ederson, Cancelo, Stones, Laporte, Zinchenko, Rodri, De Bruyne, Bernardo, Mahrez, Sterling, Aguero.

It’s probably affirmative towards their unbelievable depth that even without regular starters like Sergio Aguero or Bernardo Silva that City destroyed West Ham. Both players should start at the Etihad Stadium knowing their comfort at home. New signing Joao Cancelo made the bench on Saturday, but should get his debut to weave his magic against Spurs.

Tottenham Hotspur Likely XI:

Lloris, Walker-Peters, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose, Ndombele, Sissoko, Eriksen, Son, Kane, Moura.

Tottenham Hotspur’s newest signing Tanguy Ndombele had a dream debut against Villa. Now,  he’ll be expected to prove his mettle against the daunting Man City. Spurs’ other signings Ryan Sessegnon, Giovani Lo Celso are still being phased in, while Dele Alli is still injured.  However, Heung-Min Son should draft back in after serving his suspension, as should the influential Christian Eriksen.

Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur Match Preview

Going by the attacking intensity both sides displayed in Matchday 1, this should be an end-to-end encounter. Of course, overruling the champions at their own yard is no joke, but Mauricio Pochettino’s sides’ fearlessness could result in a feisty encounter.

However, City love breaking spirits. With RaheemSterling scoring, Mahrez assisting and De Bruyne dominating the midfield, the champions look just as good (if not better) as last season. With Aguero’s as well as Bernardo Silva’s introduction, the lethality meter will spike up.

Considering they netted 57 goals (more than 3 per game) at home last season, City’s impenetrable home rule should continue through this season.  However, John Stones’ uneasy moments in defense last week raised questions. Guardiola needs to fix that to neutralize Harry Kane and co.

Tottenham are looking a more menacing unit this season. They attempted 24 shots against Aston Villa in an absolute unrelenting approach. With Tanguy Ndombele’s dynamic presence in midfield, Spurs’ fluidity in possession has been amplified. Harry’s Kane’s scoring early, Christian Eriksen’s assisting while Lucas Moura and Son remain persisting threats.

While both sets of wing-backs are crucial with their contribution on both sides of the field and center-backs vital to contain the onslaught, the real battle will be in midfield. As Spurs’ defensively solid, bullish trio take on City’s possession masters, sparks are bound to blow over.

Whoever dominates the midfield or breaks their opponents’ line should come out victorious. Of course, City also have revenge on their mind after the Champions League elimination earlier this year, so they’ll be out for blood like thirsty hounds.

Prediction

This should be a thrilling, open encounter between two unflinching teams, producing plenty of goals. However, I don’t see Spurs unsettling City this early at the Etihad and Pep’s side should get another decisive win to retain their top spot.

Premier League Betting Market Risers and Fallers After Matchday 1

Chops August 14, 2019
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While Manchester City and Liverpool cruised to expected and decisive wins on the Premier League‘s opening weekend, a few teams surprised. Which Premier League teams were betting market risers and fallers after matchday 1?

Risers

Manchester United’s throttling of Chelsea saw new money placed on the Red Devil’s title and top 4 odds.

United has seen their title odds go from +3300 to +2800 on DraftKings Sportsbook NJ. They’ve moved from top 4 even money (+100) to odds-on (-118). The improvement is more steep at FanDuel Sportsbook, where Man U jumped from +3800 to +2600 to hoist the EPL trophy (can you imagine reading that sentence just 7 years ago?)

On the other end up the spectrum, FOURTH PLACE BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION saw their relegation futures go from +180 to +300. They’re now the 7th most likely club–according to oddsmakers–to be relegated.

As for City and Liverpool? Slight bump for City (-200 to -230 on DK, -230 to -270 on FD) and downgrade for Liverpool (+275 from +250 on DK, no change on FD).

Fallers

So, Chelsea.

The Blues doubled their longness on the title, going from +3300 to +6600 (which seems awfully generous). Their top 4 chances moved from +110 to +225. Top 6 is still odds-on, but from -455 to only -250.

Not that West Ham was a serious title contender, but they un-improved from +50000 to +75000. Their top 6 odds took a hit from +1100 to +1600.

On the relegation side, it wasn’t Newcastle…poor, sweet, suffering Newcastle…but Crystal Palace that suffered the most after opening matchday. The Eagles went from +500 to +275 for a bottom 3 finish.

Premier League Matchday 2 Odds

High Press 10 August 13, 2019
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Soooo…who all had Brighton & Hove Albion in a UCL spot after matchday 1 of the Premier League?

Or Chelsea in relegation? If our math skills are correct, Chelsea is on pace for 0 points and a -152 goal differential.

Things will start normalizing this week. Here are the lines.

2019-20 Premier League Matchday 2 Odds

Some really interesting games this week. As always, if you need a refresher, please read how to bet the Premier League in the US. If you live in New Jersey or Pennsylvania, you can bet soccer online. Home team listed first.

Saturday, August 17th  
Arsenal -360Draw +450Burnley +1050
Aston Villa +135Draw +240Bournemouth +200
Brighton +155Draw +220West Ham +200
Everton -139Draw +290Watford +375
Norwich +120Draw +240Newcastle +230
Southampton +675Draw +375Liverpool -245
Manchester City -286Draw +450Tottenham +700
Sunday, August 18th
Sheffield +150Draw +220Crystal Palace +200
Chelsea -134Draw +260Leicester City +400
Monday, August 19th
Wolves +245Draw +240Manchester United +115

Odds & Ends

  • Matchday 2 certainly isn’t a make or break for West Ham. They’re not getting relegated. But any hope of a top 6 run takes a major hit if they go two weeks with zero points. Can Brighton really earn 6 points after two weeks?
  • Newcastle wasn’t that bad matchday 1. Should their odds be that long on the road against Norwich? Actually scratch that. Yeah they should. But still.
  • The marquee match-up for the week is obviously Manchester City vs Tottenham. Spurs are +700. Seems about right. But this will be an indicator as to how good Spurs actually are this season.
  • Chelsea. Ouch. Now Leicester comes for a visit. Things could go off the rails quickly for Frank Lampard if the Foxes steal 3 points.
  • Manchester United +115 on the road against Wolves? Feels like an overreaction to matchday 1. Wolves at +245 feels like a bargain.

2019-20 Premier League Matchday 1 Odds (Repost)

High Press 10 August 9, 2019

The 2019-20 Premier League schedule kicks off one month from today!

With that in mind, let’s take a look at matchday 1 betting odds.

Premier League Matchday 1 Odds

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For a refresher, read how to bet soccer or how to bet Premier League. Home team is listed first.

Friday, Aug 09, 3pm ET
Liverpool -670Draw +700Norwich City +1900
Saturday, Aug 10, 7:30am ETWest Ham +900Draw +480Manchester City -345
Saturday, Aug 10, 10am ETBournemouth -112Draw +275Sheffield United +295
Saturday, Aug 10, 10am ET Burnley +160Draw +225Southampton +285
Saturday, Aug 10, 10am ET Crystal Palace +170Draw +225Everton +175
Saturday, Aug 10, 10am ET Leicester +135Draw +225Wolves +220
Saturday, Aug 10, 10am ET Watford -110Draw +235Brighton +340
Saturday, Aug 10, 12:30pm ETTottenham -385Draw +460Aston Villa +1200
Sunday, Aug 11, 9am ETNewcastle +265Draw +265Arsenal +100
Sunday, Aug 11, 11:30am ETManchester United +125Draw +230Chelsea +230

Odds & Ends

Note, this post was written on July 09, 2019. There are still summer transfers to come that may impact these lines. We’ll update this portion of the article closer towards matchday 1.

  • Champions League winner Liverpool ushers in the new season at home against promoted Norwich City. With the game at Anfield, they’re the heaviest favorite of the week. The 3-0 correct score prop bet (+525) and 4-0 (+750) are worth looking at more closely.
  • The next couple of bullets have the caveat of “let’s see how transfers impact these lines,” but we’re high on teams looking to punch through the Big 6 this season. So Everton (+175) as the slightest of underdogs away at Palace is interesting.
  • Same for Wolves (+220) at Leicester City.
  • Southampton feels like a mid-table team this campaign. That +285 away against Burnley is appealing.
  • This may change depending on the manager selection but Newcastle at home (+265) could catch an Arsenal squad (+100) that is potentially on the decline.

2019-20 Premier League Predictions: Who Wins Golden Boot? First Manager Sacked? And How Will Christian Pulisic Do?

Chops August 9, 2019
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Earlier this week, we made our 2019-20 Premier League title, top 4, and relegation predictions.

Now we’re going to take a look at some individual player and manager performance and prop bets for the season. Back again are site contributors Tyler Everett, ex-Newcastle forward Carl Cort, and Statsbomb writer and High Press Soccer contributor Grace Robertson

Who will win the Golden Boot for top Premier League goal scorer this year?

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook: Harry Kane +350, Mohamed Salah +500,
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang +650, Sergio Aguero +650, Raheem Sterling +1600, Sadio Mane +1600, Jamie Vardy +1800, Alexandre Lacazette +2600, Gabriel Jesus +2900, Marcus Rashford +2900, Moise Kean +3400, Sebastien Haller +3400, Roberto Firmino +3400, Nicolas Pepe +4500

ChopsWell, if you look at the odds, it’s Harry Kane (+350), Mo Salah (+500), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (+650), Sergio Aguero (+650) and everyone else. 

Of those, while I think Harry Kane will be lights-out this year, how can you go against Mo Salah? He’s won it the past two seasons. He’s going to finish more chances this year than he did last year (although he couldn’t finish a sentence in the Community Shield). It’s hard not to like Mo.

It’s worth noting though if you’re looking for value, Raheem Sterling at +1600 is interesting and Nicolas Pepe at +4500 is crazy.
TylerWill Kane enjoy good enough health to be a more prolific scorer than he was a year ago? You would have to imagine so. Still, I think he’ll be closer to last year’s tally (17) than the numbers he posted in ‘16-17 (29) and ‘17-18 (30). With Son Heung-min and this team’s growing number of dangerous midfielders, there will be enough balance to prevent Kane from leading the EPL in goals. 

I’d probably lean toward Salah even if his and Kane’s odds were the same, so the fact that the payout is bigger if the Egyptian wins this race makes this an easy choice. Let’s say the Salah we should expect over the coming years is the average of last year (22) and his monster ‘17-18 (32) — that would be 27, which ought to be plenty.
GraceI tend to favour Salah on this front. After a perceived down year last time, I think he’ll find space a little easier to come by with opposing defenders not marking him quite so tightly. Aubameyang could easily score a lot of goals again. If you’re looking for an outside bet, I’ll take a swing and suggest Sebastien Haller (+3400).
CarlIt’s a close call for me between Sadio Mane and Aubameyang but I’m going to have to go with Mane through this campaign. Not that I think he’s the best out and out goal scorer in the league. But he is definitely one of the most dynamic attacking players surrounded by exceptional quality. 
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Who will be the first manager sacked?

Odds from various sites: Ole Gunnar Solskjaer +500, Roy Hodgson +600, Graham Potter +800, Steve Bruce +800, Marco Silva +1400, Sean Dyche +1600, Frank Lampard +1600

ChopsFirst, it’s hard to ignore OGS (+500) and Frank Lampard (+1600) if for no other reason than the instability of their organizations. Being a Chelsea manager is like being the drummer in Spinal Tap.

In OGS’ case, it would be a stunning admission of incompetence by management to sack him this soon. In Lampard’s case, because it’s a transitional year, and he’s a veritable Blues legend, Chelski will give him a full season.

To me, it comes down to Roy Hodgson and Steve Bruce. I’m leaning towards Hodgson. Palace feels set up to fail early on, and Hodgson will pay the price. 
TylerI think there’s a good reason OGS is +500 here. There are a million ways this ManU season can go wrong, and the good feelings OGS engendered last spring will be distant memories if this team struggles for more than a week or two. Though managing Chelsea is always dicey, no matter who you are, I think a coaching change is more likely in Manchester than in west London.
GraceIs Solskjaer that bad? I mean, he’s not great. But the club have emotionally invested a lot in him and, while they didn’t get everything done that they wanted, it looks a stronger squad to me right now than last season. I don’t see anything brilliant happening at Man Utd, but I think he holds on for a while.

Elsewhere I think Marco Silva isn’t as safe as some perceive him to be. We saw it two years ago that Everton were not afraid to sack Ronald Koeman after spending big and not seeing instant results. It wouldn’t shock me if the same thing happened again.
CarlI have to agree with you on this one Chops. It seems as though Newcastle have accepted mediocrity and this fact will keep Steve Bruce in the Job longer than he should be. Hodgson will be the first to see the door! 

Which new transfer will have the greatest impact on his team?

ChopsI want to go with Nicholas Pepe, and not just because he’s on my fantasy team. However, scoring goals wasn’t Arsenal’s biggest issue last year. Pepe will have a solid year and contribute to Arsenal’s top 4 run, but his exact impact may be harder to quantify. 

However, I’m on Sébastien Haller’s corner. He’s in his prime. He fills a need for the Hammers. If West Ham are sniffing around the top 6 in April as I suspect they will be, we’ll all be talking about Haller’s impact.
TylerI like both Pepe and Haller a lot — and expect big seasons from both — but I’m going to go with … Christian Pulisic? As bullish as I am on our USMNT’s own, not quite. For me, it’s Tanguy Ndombele at Tottenham. There’s a reason he was as coveted as just about anyone this summer, and I think he’ll turn heads. I’m buying the hype on the 22-year-old, who will quickly blossom under Pochettino.
GraceIt’s gotta be Ndombele for me. Spurs were a mess in midfield last season and played their best stuff by often bypassing it altogether. In order to rejuvenate that area of the pitch, they needed someone who could do a bit of everything, and they got exactly the man they needed in the Frenchman.

In terms of others to make a big impact, it’s a sink or swim move, but I think Pablo Fornals could do really well for West Ham. The Spaniard is a perfect Manuel Pellegrini player and can fill the kind of role that David Silva played on his Man City team. It could be a disaster and he’ll be back to Spain in a year. Or it could really work and he’ll make a move to a top 6 club.
CarlI still believe Arsenal will surprise the league this season. What brings me to this conclusion is the addition of Nicolas Pepe, who I think will have a huge impact on their success  and the greatest impact of the new transfers.

What do you think Christian Pulisic’s total goal and total assists will be for the season?

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Odds from FanDuel — Goals: Over 9.5 (-134), Over 12.5 (+320) | Assists Over 9.5 (-223), Over 12.5 (+200)

Also read: Christian Pulisic prop bets

ChopsWow. So oddsmakers are bullish on Pulisic’s impact this year. He’s odds-on for at least 10 goals and 10 assists. If he hits those marks, he’d be the new answer for “biggest impact player.”

I like Pulisic, he’s looked great in preseason. But can we temper our expectations on him a bit? Kid is 20. The good news for him is he’ll have plenty of opportunity in Lampard’s offense. Let’s keep in mind though he wasn’t regularly starting for BVB last season. The Premier League is a different beast than the Bundesliga. 

Pulisic: 7 goals, 11 assists (which would be a fantastic debut season)
TylerI’m with Chops. As excited as I am to watch him, 10 goals and 10 assists would be a pleasant surprise. As we discussed on the most recent High Press Pod (LINK IF POSSIBLE), I think the O/U on goals should have been more like 8 or 8.5. In that case, I would have bet the over. And I’ll say he comes as close as he can to 9.5 assists without actually hitting it.

Pulisic: 9 goals, 9 assists.
GraceHe’s clearly a really talented kid and I don’t have too many doubts that he’ll be an excellent signing for Chelsea in the long term. But if we’re talking right now, it could be a tough long season for Pulisic. Chelsea could be a mess this year, and he’s got a brutal spot in filling Eden Hazard’s shoes. I’m going for 7 each, which would still be the most he’s had in his career.
CarlPulisic is an exciting player to watch. He seems to play with no fear and possess the capabilities of beating players. With that being said I just don’t think he’s going to have a significant impact on the league this season. Firstly he’s still 20 years old, lacking experience and going into a club in transition. Secondly this is the Premier League!! Nothing he’s experienced before can come close. I do think he’s one for the future but for me this season is too soon.

West Ham United vs Manchester City Matchday 1 Preview

Avatar August 8, 2019

Who: West Ham vs Manchester City
When: Saturday, August 10th @ 7:30am ET on NBC Sports
Where: London Stadium
Line: West Ham +1100| Draw +550 | Man City -435

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The 2019-20 Premier League season kicks off tomorrow. Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City aims to do the threepeat this time, something they’ve never achieved in their pre-21st-century history (which wasn’t much to speak of, in fairness). Who said oil money can’t build a legacy?

However, their title defence isn’t starting with an easy fixture. Former manager Manuel Pellegrini stands in their way, with West Ham United ready take down the champions. The Hammers have themselves made impressive summer signings and will not at all back down without a fight. If City wants a win on opening weekend, they’ll have to produce their absolute best to get it done.

West Ham United likely XI:

Fabianski, Fredericks, Diop, Balbuena, Masuaku, Rice, Noble, Fornals, Lanzini, Anderson, Haller.

West Ham United’s big-money signing Sebastien Haller is expected to make his much-anticipated Premier League bow against the champions. Exciting Spaniard Pablo Fornals should also be involved, as both players are going to be crucial towards spicing up their attacking rhythm. New striker Albian Ajeti, meanwhile, is not expected to feature after being signed on deadline day.

Manchester City likely XI:

Ederson, Walker, Stones, Laporte, Zinchenko, Rodri, Gundogan, B.Silva, De Bruyne, Sterling, Aguero.

Manchester City’s newest signing Joao Cancelo is unlikely to feature after having arrived in England very recently. Their record-midfielder Rodri is set to make his Premier League debut after impressing in the Community Shield game. Sergio Aguero and Ederson, both who were on the bench on Sunday, should be in contention for starting while Fernandinho is still not quite match-fit.

West Ham United vs Manchester City preview

While this isn’t exactly a David & Goliath match-up, West Ham really needs to chug hard to reach City’s level. Pellegrini’s created a competitive squad with quality acquisitions, but his team isn’t perfectly gelled together like City. Guardiola’s side knows every little detail of each other’s strengths, making them even scarier to face.

For the Spaniard, the record-breaking deal just never ends since he arrived at England. He’ll become the first foreign manager to win the Premier League thrice in a row (Jose Mourinho did it twice consecutively) if he manages to repeat the feat this time around. However, for me, their defence could cause internal problems in their game this season.

Inability to replace Vincent Kompany could lead to defensive hiccups. However, to me,  City are just too strong going forward to be fazed defensively. Kevin de Bruyne and Bernardo Silva are already looking unstoppable as their creative midfield core. Sergio Aguero along with Raheem Sterling’s goal-scoring phenomenon will blow away West Ham as well as others going forward.

Manuel Pellegrini has done well to keep his core, even though it’s meant to sell striker Marko Arnautovic. He’s implemented an exciting, fast-paced attacking style which sees West Ham create beautiful goals, but doing so against City is difficult.

Of course, new signing Haller will have every fan’s attention with his incredible physical attributes making him a menace in the box. Along with Pablo Fornals, Manuel Lanzini and Felipe Anderson tormenting defences with their clever movement as well as clinical work going forward, I think the Hammers could end up causing multiple headaches for City.

Prediction

As much I’d love to say the champions are suffering a shock, I just can’t see it happening. City are just too strong right now. Even though West Ham’s attack could trouble them, their attacking force should consolidate an emphatic victory to start the title defence.

2019-20 Premier League Predictions! Who Wins It, Finishes in Top 4, and Gets Relegated

High Press 10 August 7, 2019
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The 2019-20 Premier League season is almost here!

It’ll be hard to top last season’s campaign, when FFP violating Manchester City topped Champions League winner’s Liverpool by one point on the final matchday.

This season, Liverpool and City are clear favorites. Who will claim the other two UCL spots? Have Chelsea and Manchester United done enough to stay in the top 6? Who’s getting relegated?

Here’s what we think.

Back to do predictions are site contributors Tyler Everett and ex-Newcastle forward Carl Cort. Joining the panel this year is Statsbomb writer and HPS contributor Grace Robertson. Let’s get into it.

2019-20 Premier League Predictions: Who will win it all?

ChopsThis is a classic heart vs mind battle. My heart says Liverpool. My mind says Manchester City.

I can make a credible case for Liverpool on three factors: 1) THEY ONLY LOST ONE FREAKING DOMESTIC GAME LAST SEASON AND FINISHED WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST POINT TOTAL EVER, 2) if there’s one thing the squad has shown is a resilience to claw back from adversity. They did it with the UCL last year, maybe it happens with the EPL this year, 3) I believe in God, and there’s no way God would be cool with City winning three times in a row. 

There are plenty of reasons to not think Liverpool will win. Sure, getting Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain back helps, as does the emergence of Rhian Brewster. Otherwise, they didn’t add depth to a squad that was very healthy last year and is competing for seven total trophies (well, six now). They’ve exceeded xG two seasons in a row (and have particularly killed it on set pieces) and regression seems likely.

However, the lads show time and again a hunger to be the best. The league is stronger and deeper this year. It’ll be close, maybe down to the final matchday again. But Klopp has shown — both in game and over the course of a season — that he learns from mistakes. Don’t expect another winter swoon. He’ll have them consistently strong all season. Liverpool just edge out City for their first Premier League title.
TylerI think Manchester City wins the league again, whether I like it or not — and I’d love to be wrong here. (You don’t have to be a diehard Reds fan to be pretty turned off by City’s ability to buy whoever they want, among other things).

Liverpool will tally enough points (low, maybe mid-90s) to win in a normal year, but I don’t see anything to prevent Man City from enjoying another absurdly successful campaign. 

Pep Guardiola’s team’s depth will be the difference over another long season, especially after Liverpool’s fruitful, but nevertheless exhausting, run to the UCL final last year. The low likelihood of Liverpool enjoying the health it did a year ago, plus the number of players who played big roles in major summer tournaments with their countries — Mo Salah, Naby Keita and Sadio Mane in the Africa Cup of Nations, Alisson and Firmino in the Copa America — makes fatigue/fatigue-related issues an even bigger concern. 
GraceAs much as it pains me to say it, I just can’t look past City’s strength in the numbers.

They generate better chances than Liverpool. They concede fewer good chances than Liverpool. There’s no getting around the fact that this City team is simply the real deal. If the Community Shield is a sign of what’s to come, Guardiola has added better set piece work over the summer. That’s another edge he’s now exploiting.

The case for Liverpool really involves finding ways to genuinely improve as a team. Maybe Oxlade-Chamberlain adds something? Maybe Keita pushes on? It’s all possible. But I’m not convinced. I think Liverpool pretty much maxed out in terms of getting the most out of the talent available last season, while City still have more quality.
CarlI believe we’re still another season or two out before you can start to add the likes of Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester United to this equation. 

As an Arsenal fan, unfortunately I’m going to have to give it to Liverpool!

Even though they haven’t added to the squad, what they do have is still much better than the majority of the league. Looking at the off-season acquisitions as a whole, there haven’t been any major game changers. I think it will again go right down to the wire. Both teams have fantastic fire power but what will separate Liverpool from City is their strength at the back.

Predictions: 2 for Liverpool, 2 for City

2019-20 Premier League Predictions: After City and Liverpool, who will round out the top 4?

ChopsAs much as I want to say that Everton, Wolves, or West Ham will crack the top 4, I just can’t.

After finally spending some money on transfers this summer, Tottenham feels like a lock (oddsmakers agree). Then it comes down to Chelsea, Manchester United, or Arsenal. 

Oddsmakers favor Chelsea and Man U, but I like what Arsenal did this summer. Their defense will still be porous, but they’ll score so much it won’t matter. They have a 2017-18 Liverpool feel to them. I don’t believe in Lampard at Chelsea or OGS at United (though I do believe both have positive qualities). Emery is more proven. He’ll steer the Gunners back to the UCL. 
TylerI’m with Chops on Spurs staying in the top 4. This team didn’t lose any major pieces besides Kieran Trippier, and Tanguy Ndombele seems like a high-impact signing. For a price tag over $70M, he better be. You also have to imagine they have better injury luck than they did a year ago.

I don’t feel terribly confident in Chelsea, Manchester United (especially not this team) or Arsenal, but I’ll go with Chelsea in fourth. It’s probably wishful thinking, but Christian Pulisic seems like a huge addition, even if he’s undeniably no Eden Hazard. So, in order, I’ve got City, Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea.
GraceI do think Spurs are the most likely team here, but I do still have some reservations. That side was really quite poor in the second half of the league season, coming 11th in the table if you only include the last 19 games.

But Ndombele feels like a big get for them. He’s the midfielder Pochettino needed but didn’t get last summer as the long term Mousa Dembele replacement. He should help glue their better buildup play in previous years with their more direct stuff from last season.

After that, I’m surprisingly into Arsenal. The squad is, to put it politely, top-heavy. But I do think Emery’s qualities at Sevilla were of someone who could produce a strong, compact defensive side with speed on the counter. A team that regularly plays Mustafi is never going to have a great defence, but I think he can tighten them up a bit more after a year of coaching.
CarlMaybe I’m being a little biased but I actually think Arsenal will surprise people this season. It’s never really been an issue on the offensive side of Arsenal’s game. The last several seasons they’ve just been soft and mushy in the midfield and as solid as a house of cards defensively. Emery is aware of this. I believe Arsenal had a bid rejected for Dayot Upamecano. If Upamecano does eventually become a Gunner I believe he could be the answer to their issues defensively.

Spurs I believe will capture the other spot. I look at Spurs as a team that have the capabilities to beat any squad in the league but are missing an ingredient (I believe mentally) to do this on a consistent basis, therefore diminishing their chances of winning the league. 

Would I have chosen Arsenal and Spurs to claim 3rd and 4th spot if Chelsea and Man U were not in a transitional period? Maybe not. But right now I think they are more equipped to succeed.

Predictions: Liverpool (4), Man City (4), Tottenham (4), Arsenal (3), Chelsea (1).

2019-20 Premier League Predictions: Who rounds out the top 6?

ChopsYeah yeah, I know I said I don’t think Lampard is a quality manager yet. However, I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Chelsea and particularly Christian Pulisic this preseason. There’s enough talent there to earn a Europa League bid. 

Then it comes down to Manchester United, Everton, Wolves, or West Ham. 

I was on Wolves’ corner all last year. I want to go with Wolves. I think there’s a little “too much too soon” with them. Do they have the infrastructure to support a Europa League and Premier League run? I’m not sure. 

To me, this United season has all of the makings of a “bottom falls out” year. They just seem unstable. I liked what they were doing this summer on transfers — young British players who remind OGS of his 90’s squad. Then they make Harry Maguire the most expensive defender in the world. While I don’t think OGS is a bad manager, I don’t think he’s a great one either. He has the right temperament to weather criticism, but there’s too much turmoil at Old Trafford both organizationally and from the fan base. It’ll seep down to the players. It has to, especially if they start off slow. If they lose to Chelsea on matchday 1, the wheels could fly off quickly.

That leaves Everton and West Ham. Both had impressive summers. Both added legit quality to their squads. I had been leaning towards West Ham because they have an edge at manager. But damn, that Everton roster is impressive. And it’s worth about $200M more than West Ham. That’s a hard talent disparity to overcome. Everton edges out West Ham and Man U in May.
TylerI see Arsenal finishing in fifth place. After Man City and Liverpool, Arsenal were, by total goals scored, the best offensive team in the league a year ago. They added another player capable of scoring double-digit goals in Nicolas Pepe. Any team with three offensive threats as dangerous as Pepe, Aubameyang and Lacazette is going to be fun to watch. More importantly, they’ll be successful, even if the defense leaves something to be desired.

And I’m going with Everton ahead of ManU in sixth. I just don’t trust ManU based on what I saw from them last season. The perpetual soap opera at Old Trafford will once again be a must-see spectacle, even if the on-field product is poor.

I don’t feel a whole lot better about Everton than I do West Ham or Wolves, but I really like the Moise Kean signing and think he’ll fit in nicely alongside Gylfi Sigurdsson and Richarlison. 
GraceThe whole world has forgotten that Chelsea finished third last season and won the Europa League. Yes, they have lost Eden Hazard. Yes, Frank Lampard probably isn’t an amazing manager. But this group of players should still be capable of being basically fine. I’m not sure they’ll look amazing this year, but I find it hard to believe it’ll go catastrophically wrong.

Similarly, Manchester United have felt one game away from complete collapse for years now. But I feel like they might be a touch underrated at this point. Wan-Bissaka and Maguire are not hugely exciting signings, but they’re at the very least an upgrade on who they had last season. I’m not expecting much in the way of real progress at Old Trafford, but they should be fine.
CarlEven with the addition of Frank Lampard and his lack of experience as a head coach, Chelsea still have enough to claim a top six spot. Their last three head coaches have been successful in delivering silverware to the club. However, the style of play as a team hasn’t been easy on the eye and has somewhat been boring to watch. I think Frank  adds a little bit of fresh air to Chelsea as a whole. He will begin to change the identity of the club, adding more flair and a dynamic aspect to the team. 

I automatically want to give my next choice to Man United but it’s actually going to Wolverhampton. Nuno Santo has Wolves playing attractive and effective soccer. It’s how I like to see the game being played. I think they can do even better than last season. 

Predictions: Chelsea (3), Everton (2), Arsenal (1), Man U (1), Wolves (1)

2019-20 Premier League Predictions: Who gets relegated? 

ChopsThis feels like the easiest call of them all. Recent call-ups Norwich and Sheffield don’t have the squads to properly compete. They have the lowest squad market values by a large margin. It’ll be a short stay in the top division.

Brighton & Hove Albion barely survived last year. They’ve done little to improve their squad. They’re heading down to the Championship too.
TylerI’m going with Chops on this one, and would have gone with Norwich and Sheffield even if I hadn’t seen his take here, I swear.

Newcastle is in for a long season, but maybe this is the year Mike Ashley finally finds a buyer willing to pay whatever it is he’s looking for???

However, I think Brighton is a more likely relegation candidate than Newcastle.
GraceAston Villa have spent a lot of money on a lot of players. One or two aside, I can’t figure out why they were signed. Perhaps it’ll suddenly all come together. I suspect the more likely scenario is they go straight back down.

Newcastle, poor Newcastle. Trapped in the grip of Mike Ashley. He only cares about keeping the team in the Premier League, but I don’t think Steve Bruce will manage to pull that off. It’ll be a sad day for football when they go down.

Finally, I feel a bit guilty for putting Norwich here because I like what Daniel Farke wants to do. They’re a team that play good football and should be an enjoyable watch if ever you’re looking through the Saturday games for something to put on. But this is largely the same side devoid of top flight experience from last year’s promotion and I don’t know if the quality is quite there.
CarlIt’s  easy to look straight towards the newly promoted teams but I actually think two out of the three promoted teams will survive (Norwich and Sheffield United). It’s not due to the fact that they’re going to cause any major surprises with electrifying performances but in their own little league at the bottom half of the table there’s enough poor teams down there they can beat.

With that being said I think it’s the end of the road for  Newcastle, Brighton and Aston Villa. They will rebound straight back down.

Predictions: Brighton (3), Norwich (3), Sheffield (2), Aston Villa (2), Newcastle (2).

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2019-20 Premier League Title Odds: Manchester City Favorites to Threepeat (UPDATE)

High Press 10 August 4, 2019
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UPDATED August 4th after FA Community Shield

2019-20 Premier League title odds have gone through some changes after the summer transfer season on FanDuel Sportsbook NJ and DraftKings Sportsbook.

One thing that hasn’t changed is that oddsmakers clearly view this as a two-team race. The Premier League trophy holder will be between FFP violating Manchester City and Champions League winners Liverpool.

Like with 2019-20 La Liga title odds, there’s a distant third (Tottenham in this case), then everybody else.

2019-20 Premier League Title Odds

There’s some different pricing on FanDuel Sportsbook NJ and DraftKings Sportsbook. For this post, we’ll stick with title odds. We’ll list Top 4, Top 6, and relegation odds later this week.

FanDuel Premier League Title Odds

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Typically we offer “value play” advice but the reality is City or Liverpool will win the Premier League this year. If you’re not picking one of the two, you’re not following closely enough.

City has only become heavier favorites since May. They’ve moved from -170 to -230. Liverpool go slightly longer, from +240 to +260. Despite unprecedented spending, Tottenham fell from +1400 to +1900.

The gap from the top 3 and everyone else widens significantly from there. Manchester United soar from +2000 to +3800. Chelsea double from +2000 to +4000. Arsenal go longer from +2900 to +4900.

Even those 7-10 teams who all improved this summer got longer. Wolves go from +9000 to +17000. They’re joined at +17000 by Leceister City and Everton.

Manchester City -230Liverpool +260Spurs +1900Manchester United +3800 Chelsea +4000
Arsenal +4900Wolves +17000Leicester +17000Everton +17000Watford +25000
West Ham +25000Bournemouth +25000Newcastle +25000Sheffield +25000Norwich +25000
Burnley +25000Brighton +25000Crystal Palace +25000Southampton +25000Aston Villa +25000

DraftKings Premier League Title Odds

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At DraftKings Sportsbook it’s a similar story. City and Liverpool slightly improve. Everyone else falls. United drop from +1000 to +3300 (a sign the public wasn’t backing them at all). Arsenal double in length here too, from +2500 to +5000. Everton actually improved from +25000 to +15000. Aston Villa’s summer spending got some respect too, as they move from +250000 to +100000.

City -200Liverpool +275Spurs +1800 Manchester United +3300Chelsea +3300
Arsenal +5000Wolves +15000 Everton +15000Leicester +25000 West Ham +50000
Watford +100000 Crystal Palace +100000 Southampton
+100000
Bournemouth +100000 Aston Villa +100000
Newcastle
+100000
Burnley +150000 Brighton
+150000
Sheffield +2000000

Norwich +200000

As always, read this betting on soccer or Premier League betting refresher for how this all works.

Who Will Win the 2019-20 Premier League?

Chops July 10, 2019
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We’re one month away from the first full matchday of the 2019-20 Premier League schedule.

Yesterday, we looked at Premier League matchday 1 odds. Today, we’ll take a quick look at which teams can win the 2019-20 Premier League trophy. We’ll do a deeper dive into this in early August once summer transfers are complete.

Further, in the coming weeks we’ll take a more in-depth look at:

  • All Premier League teams heading into the season
  • What clubs can challenge for a top 6 spot
  • What clubs are top relegation candidates
  • What Championship League teams are most likely to be promoted

Can any team challenge Manchester City or Liverpool for the title?

No.

Not even Tottenham?

Spurs don’t get enough credit for how they develop talent. They have an elite manager in Mauricio Pochettino. Tottenham have elite level players. They’ve added their recent record transfer Tanguy Ndombele. Christian Eriksen hasn’t left yet. Harry Kane, Son Heung-min, and Dele Alli are still there.

Notice I haven’t mentioned a defender yet?

Spurs is a fairly WYSIWYG squad. We know they’ll be well coached. We know they’re a threat to win any game. They’ll make it to the Champions League knockout rounds. They will snugly finish third in the Premier League. This isn’t complicated.

What about Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal?

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

They seriously have no chance?

None.

Chelsea just shit-canned a coach who guided them to a Europa League title and top 4 finish. They’re under a transfer ban. They lost their best player. Frank Lampard, their new coach, is unproven. Or maybe not even good. He didn’t exactly have his iPhone ringing off the hook this off-season. Chelsea is the model of organizational instability. They’re taking a step back.

Arsenal appears to be adding nobody of note to a squad that didn’t crack the top 4 last year. And they lost their best midfielder.

Manchester United I actually think are making smart moves, acquiring young players with upside and heart like Daniel James and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. They need another 5 of those moves and a couple of years of growth to start challenging again. As the saying goes, they’re two years away from being two years away.

So, it’s really already down to Manchester City and Liverpool for the 2019-20 Premier League title?

Yes.

The chasm between City and Liverpool and everyone else is enormous.

First, let’s look at what betting markets say.

DraftKings Sportsbook have Manchester City as odds-on favorites at -150. Liverpool follow at +225.

The next closest odds? Tottenham at +1600.

It’s the same general odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook NJ as well.

Further, Liverpool and Manchester City just ended last season as two of the statistically best 8 teams of all time. According to ClubElo, last year’s Liverpool was actually better than City, peaking as the sixth best team ever in the history of freaking soccer.

With apologies to Vincent Kompany, neither squad lost any players of note. Financial fair play rule breaking City added high-priced Rodri to their team. They’ll likely break more rules to buy players they shouldn’t be allowed to buy. That’s how City rolls.

Liverpool get Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Joe Gomez back full time and expect growth from elite youngsters like Rhian Brewster. And they’re going to win 17-18 games at Anfield. They’re good.

One of these two teams is winning the Premier League. It’s a given. Just accept it and move on.

Who will it be? We’ll examine who has the best chance later this month.

Manchester City Defeat Leicester 1-0, All But Ending Liverpool’s Title Hopes (Updated Premier League Odds)

Chops May 6, 2019

Well, it was fun while it lasted.

Manchester City defeated Leicester City 1-0 on Monday at the Etihad, all but securing the 2018-19 Premier League title.

It was a chippy, spirited game where Leicester challenged, but City never felt like they didn’t have control. Kasper Schmeichel did his best to keep Leicester in the game with some brilliant saves. However, the victory was secured off a brilliant Vincent Kompany strike (after Leicester failed to have anyone close him out) in the 70th minute.

If City where going to drop points, the stars aligned for it to be against the Foxes. Leicester have been third in the Premier League in form recently. Leicester is managed by Brendan Rodgers, who helmed Liverpool the last time they were this close to the Premier League title (2013-14…when they lost to City). Ultimately, Rodgers couldn’t help deliver a title to the Reds today just like he didn’t five years ago.

Premier League title odds going into Matchday 38

Liverpool title odds ping-ponged all match at FanDuel Sportsbook NJ, but they are now massive longshots.

At halftime, Liverpool saw their futures drop from around +250 to +155. After the Kompany goal, those title odds jumped to +430.

By game’s end, they settled to City -900, Liverpool +550.

Manchester City play 17th place Brighton at home on Sunday. Liverpool host 7th place Wolverhampton.

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