Who: Tottenham vs Liverpool
When: Saturday, January 11th @ 12:30pm ET
Line: Tottenham +340 | Draw +330 | Liverpool -143
Oh yeah, Liverpool have a game-in-hand too.
Last season, Liverpool finished 26 points ahead of Spurs.
So yeah. Liverpool are measurably and definitively the better side.
However, when they faced off at Anfield on matchday 10, Liverpool only pulled away after Sadio Mane earned a late penalty that was converted by Mo Salah. The game finished 2-1. While the scorelines were close, Spurs’ performance against Manchester City and Liverpool in the first half of the season were not. At the time, we noted:
Had Spurs somehow recorded another goal today and come away with 2-2 draws at the Etihad and Anfield, they’d have done so despite being outshot by a collective 51 to 14 (with 23 on target vs 6)
Math math match…that’s not good!
Since then, Poch left and Jose Mourinho came on board. Otherwise not much has changed. Liverpool keep winning. Spurs keep on being inconsistent.
Here’s your Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool match preview.
Tottenham vs Liverpool match preview
Actually, something has changed since Liverpool and Tottenham faced off on matchday 10: the Reds have gotten better.
Until Alisson’s return, Liverpool were like an infant without diapers: they couldn’t keep clean sheets.
Now they’re winning comfortably and without conceding.
In domestic games, Liverpool have gone five straight without surrendering. Their 14 goals against is five better than anyone else in the Premier League. They’re 4 goals better in xGA than any other English side.
Tottenham, meanwhile, are the second most fortunate EPL squad in terms of xG. Their 27.7 xG is almost 9 goals less than their actual total of 36.
Part of that xG difference is Spurs have an elite converter in Harry Kane.
Harry Kane is out with a hamstring injury (ruptured tendon) until April.
Liverpool have injuries too!
Liverpool went perfect through the festive period (save a meaningless Carabao Cup match against Villa or as Manchester City would call it, THE MOST MEANINGFUL CUP IMAGINABLE) despite racking up significant injuries. As of this writing, Dejan Lovren, Xherdan Shaqiri, Joel Matip, Fabinho, James Milner, aaaaaaand Naby Keita are all out or unlikely for the match.
No worries though as Liverpool have proven to have the depth to survive the injuries. The likely starting XI (Alisson, TAA, VVD, Gomez, Robbo, Gini, Hendo, Minamino, Salah, Sadio and Bobby) have the defensive solidarity and offensive firepower to exact their will against Spurs.
Even with Harry Kane, this match heavily tilts towards Liverpool’s favor. Without him, as awesome as Son Heung-min and Dele Alli can be, Spurs simply don’t have the starting XI to match Liverpool.
And Jurgen Klopp is a better manager than Jose Mourinho.
This isn’t complicated.
Don’t be surprised if Liverpool outshoot Spurs by about 20. Unlike Carlo Ancelotti or (gulp) OGS, Mourinho hasn’t shown he’s adaptable enough to shut down Liverpool’s attack.
Spurs have laid giant 💩’s this year against top offensive squads. Liverpool have raised their game in the biggest matches. They seem to take a certain joy in it. Expect something similar here. Liverpool win 3-0.