With the Champions League Quarterfinal draw tomorrow, let’s take a quick look at updated futures as listed on FanDuel Sportsbook NJ . We expect some movement on these prices based on the draw and pairings on Friday.
|Manchester City +230||Barcelona +340||Juventus +340||Liverpool +470|
|Manchester United +1000||Tottenham +1600||Ajax +2500||Porto +7000|
Manchester United Overvalued, Liverpool & Ajax Undervalued
The Favorites. First things first, City and Barca as the two favorites is no surprise. Both dominated their [far inferior] opponents in the Round of 16. City is rated as the best team on the planet. Barcelona has the best player of all time who is also possibly having his best season ever.
Overvalued. Not to take anything away from Manchester United, what they’ve done since sacking Jose Mourinho is remarkable, but are we sure they’re not more lucky than good right now? At a minimum, would they win a tie vs. either Tottenham or Ajax? Both of those clubs have a higher rating than United as of today. Tottenham at least would likely be favored if they were matched up against United (Ajax was one of our value picks against Real Madrid and just aren’t getting oddsmaker respect yet). The +1000 for United is generous. It may have more to do with Man U being a public team than on merits of being the fifth most likely to win the UCL.
Undervalued. Liverpool’s +470 is interesting. They’re the #2 ranked global club, ahead of Barcelona (#3) and Juventus (#6, and by a wide margin). They just dismantled the #4 ranked global club, Bayern Munich, at Allianz Arena.
They also have the second highest win probability according to FiveThirtyEight, doubling Juventus’ chances.
Again, some of this will shift slightly tomorrow after the draw, but based on the analytics, Liverpool has value.
The same can be said for Ajax. We’ve been beating the Ajax drum since the Round of 16, and nothing changes here. To be clear: we don’t think Ajax will win the 2019 Champions League title. However, taking out the fact that they’re not exactly a public team that receives mass support, Ajax’s pricing should be flipped with Manchester United.