In the midst of the Premier League winter break, it’s a good time to check in on the Golden Boot race. While only a few players have a legitimate shot at finishing as the EPL’s top goal scorer, there actually still is some value to be found.
2019-20 Premier League Golden Boot Updated Odds
|Sergio Aguero +175||Jamie Vardy +225|
|Mo Salah +500||Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang +1100|
|Tammy Abraham +2000||Danny Ings +2000|
|Sadio Mane +2500||Raheem Sterling +2500|
|Gabriel Jesus +6600||Raúl Jiménez +6600|
Mo Salah and Danny Ings Golden Boot chances are real
The shortest odds are no shocker. Jamie Vardy sits with 17 goals and Sergio Aguero has 16. Aguero has better odds than Vardy though in part due to his utterly absurd goals-per-minute ratio.
- Jamie Vardy (17): goal per 118 mins
- Sergio Aguero (16): goal per 73 mins
- Mohamed Salah (14): goal per 135 mins
- Marcus Rashford (14): goal per 134 mins
- Danny Ings (14): goal per 123 mins
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (14): goal per 145 mins
Given Rashford’s injury, cross him out of the race. Given that Arsenal kinda suck and are struggling to score, cross Aubs out too.
That means there are four truly viable contenders right now: Vardy, Aguero, and Mo Salah and Danny Ings.
Salah’s xG puts him second, behind the injured Rashford.
A lot was written about Vardy finishing an unsustainable amount of chances earlier in the year. That regression is real. He’s tailed off of late, and will likely continue to do so as the season wears on.
Aguero is and should be the favorite. The issues with him–as it has been for the past few seasons–are: 1) fitness, and 2) squad depth. Especially as Aguero ages, he’s gone out multiple times with injuries that derail his Golden Boot chances. Also–hot take alert!–Manchester City are deep. Pep rotates. Gabriel Jesus, who essentially serves as Aguero’s back-up/insurance policy, is also top 10 in xG.
If Aguero stays healthy, he will likely win the Golden Boot. However, the added complexity in this comes down to prioritization. With the Premier League totally out of reach for City, will Pep prioritize the Champions League, FA Cup, and Carabao Cup over the domestic title?
That was a rhetorical question by the way. Everyone knows City adorably chase Carabao Cups like leprechauns chase pots of gold at the end of a rainbow.
So, Salah is Liverpool’s penalty taker when James Milner is not playing. He’s got the second best xG in the Premier League. And with Liverpool potentially trying to finish out the year as the best team in Premier League history, he’s less likely to sit.
Also, Liverpool have yet to play their second match against any team that currently ranks in the bottom 8 of xGA. That’s a lot of goals to be had.
As for Ings, he’s finally healthy and in form. His .58xG/90 puts him level with Vardy and Abraham and likely sells him a bit short. Ings has rounded into form the past few months because he, again, is finally healthy and recovered. Since matchweek 7, he’s only failed to find the back of the net in 6 matches.
Aguero is three goals ahead of Salah and Ings. But Salah and Ings can still catch up. This race isn’t over.
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