If my math skills serve me correctly, by winning every single remaining game, Liverpool would win their first Premier League title (and first domestic championship in 29 years).
However, I suck at math.
The geeks at FiveThirtyEight do not.
There are 30 points to be had. Where will some be dropped?
Let’s look at all 10 remaining games for Liverpool and Manchester City, their odds to win those games, and how the rest of the season could play out.
|Liverpool||Opponent||FiveThirtyEight Win %||HPS Take||Manchester City||Opponent||FiveThirtyEight Win %||HPS Take|
|03/03||@Everton||70% Win||At Anfield, Liverpool needed a last minute fluke Origi goal to get three points. It was one of Everton’s best games of the year though. Liverpool win by a goal and take all 3.||03/02||@Bournemouth||80% Win||This one is more troublesome than Cityzens may want to admit. City draw, take 1.|
|03/10||Burnley||85% Win||Liverpool fans should feel good about this one. Expect an onslaught in tune-up for their Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2. Take all 3.||03/09||Watford||84% Win||Watford won’t get smashed like they did against Liverpool, but City prevails convincingly. Take 3.|
|03/17||@Fulham||75% Win||Perfect match to either 1) rebound or 2) continue momentum from Bayern Leg 2. Take all 3.||03/30||@Fulham||80% Win||One of those City 5-0 wins. Take all 3.|
|03/31||Tottenham||60% Win||Percentage-wise, this is the hardest match remaining. However, at Anfield and with Spurs always capable of a Spursian collapse, this is an easy 3.||04/06||Cardiff City||92% Win||Cardiff at the Etihad? This seriously isn’t 100%? City take 3.|
|04/05||@Southampton||67% Win||Half the players on the pitch will have played for the other squad at one point. This is a concerning one, more than you’d think. Squeeze by with a hard fought 3.||04/14||@Crystal Palace||65% Win||Palace is the proverbial pain in every Top 6’s ass. They’ve historically given City problems. Not today though. City take all 3.|
|04/14||Chelsea||61% Win||The hardest fixture to predict. If it’s still a Sarri-shitshow, then an easy W. If it’s the Chelsea that showed up last weekend, it’s a fight. Will split the difference and call it a draw. 1 point.||04/20||Tottenham||64% Win||It would be very Spursian to work their way into the title picture and lose at Anfield, then win a game once they’re too far out at City. And that’s what happens. City get the L.|
|04/21||@Cardiff||75% Win||It’s Cardiff. Take all 3.||04/24||@Manchester United||57% Win||The Manchester Derby! Hardest remaining game on City’s slate. Talk that the title race is over after the Spurs collapse–City smash United. Take 3.|
|04/26||Huddersfield||89% Win||It’s Huddersfield. And at home. Take all 3.||04/28||@Burnley||74% Win||An easy 3.|
|05/04||@Newcastle||66% Win||Don’t like this one at all. Not one bit. Newcastle looked transformed with the addition of Miguel Almiron. Liverpool take the L. No points.||05/04||Leicester City||82% Win||Like Palace, the Foxes cause problems. Not today. City take 3.|
|05/12||Wolves||81% Win||Not an easy way to close out the season, especially with the title on the line. The pressure will be immense. Thank god it’s at Ansfield. Liverpool take 3.||05/12||@Brighton||76%||Some of this may come down to if Brighton is on the brink of relegation. They’re at 12% right now. However, City need a win here and pull through for 3.|
Based on the above highly scientific analysis, both Liverpool and City will drop 4 points in their remaining 10 fixtures. In that scenario, Liverpool wins the Premier League for the first time. 96 points to City’s 95. FiveThirtyEight has it similar, with Liverpool squeaking out a 1 point title. Either way, this is a title chase for the ages from two historically great teams.