Who Has the Harder Remaining 10 Games? Liverpool or Manchester City?

Posted By Chops on March 2, 2019

Only 10 games remain in the 2018-19 Premier League season. Liverpool have a narrow 1-point lead over Manchester City. Every single game played and point earned is critical.

If my math skills serve me correctly, by winning every single remaining game, Liverpool would win their first Premier League title (and first domestic championship in 29 years).

However, I suck at math.

The geeks at FiveThirtyEight do not.

There are 30 points to be had. Where will some be dropped?

Let’s look at all 10 remaining games for Liverpool and Manchester City, their odds to win those games, and how the rest of the season could play out.

 

Liverpool Opponent FiveThirtyEight Win % HPS Take Manchester City Opponent FiveThirtyEight Win % HPS Take
03/03 @Everton 70% Win At Anfield, Liverpool needed a last minute fluke Origi goal to get three points. It was one of Everton’s best games of the year though. Liverpool win by a goal and take all 3. 03/02 @Bournemouth 80% Win This one is more troublesome than Cityzens may want to admit. City draw, take 1.
03/10 Burnley 85% Win Liverpool fans should feel good about this one. Expect an onslaught in tune-up for their Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2. Take all 3. 03/09 Watford 84% Win Watford won’t get smashed like they did against Liverpool, but City prevails convincingly. Take 3.
03/17 @Fulham 75% Win Perfect match to either 1) rebound or 2) continue momentum from Bayern Leg 2. Take all 3. 03/30 @Fulham 80% Win One of those City 5-0 wins. Take all 3.
03/31 Tottenham 60% Win Percentage-wise, this is the hardest match remaining. However, at Anfield and with Spurs always capable of a Spursian collapse, this is an easy 3. 04/06 Cardiff City 92% Win Cardiff at the Etihad? This seriously isn’t 100%? City take 3.
04/05 @Southampton 67% Win Half the players on the pitch will have played for the other squad at one point. This is a concerning one, more than you’d think. Squeeze by with a hard fought 3. 04/14 @Crystal Palace 65% Win Palace is the proverbial pain in every Top 6’s ass. They’ve historically given City problems. Not today though. City take all 3.
04/14 Chelsea 61% Win The hardest fixture to predict. If it’s still a Sarri-shitshow, then an easy W. If it’s the Chelsea that showed up last weekend, it’s a fight. Will split the difference and call it a draw. 1 point. 04/20 Tottenham 64% Win It would be very Spursian to work their way into the title picture and lose at Anfield, then win a game once they’re too far out at City. And that’s what happens. City get the L.
04/21 @Cardiff 75% Win It’s Cardiff. Take all 3. 04/24 @Manchester United 57% Win The Manchester Derby! Hardest remaining game on City’s slate. Talk that the title race is over after the Spurs collapse–City smash United. Take 3.
04/26 Huddersfield 89% Win It’s Huddersfield. And at home. Take all 3. 04/28 @Burnley 74% Win An easy 3.
05/04 @Newcastle 66% Win Don’t like this one at all. Not one bit. Newcastle looked transformed with the addition of Miguel Almiron. Liverpool take the L. No points. 05/04 Leicester City 82% Win Like Palace, the Foxes cause problems. Not today. City take 3.
05/12 Wolves 81% Win Not an easy way to close out the season, especially with the title on the line. The pressure will be immense. Thank god it’s at Ansfield. Liverpool take 3. 05/12 @Brighton 76% Some of this may come down to if Brighton is on the brink of relegation. They’re at 12% right now. However, City need a win here and pull through for 3.

Based on the above highly scientific analysis, both Liverpool and City will drop 4 points in their remaining 10 fixtures. In that scenario, Liverpool wins the Premier League for the first time. 96 points to City’s 95. FiveThirtyEight has it similar, with Liverpool squeaking out a 1 point title. Either way, this is a title chase for the ages from two historically great teams.

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Chops

Chops is the executive producer of High Press Soccer. He's an unabashed Liverpool fan who will absolutely let that bias seep into his reporting and analysis.

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